Why is Poirier the favorite at the bookmakers?

[NoBiasJustMMA]

Chandler has a punchers chance is why.

Dustin beat better opposition and is more proven at LW.

Chandler is obviously good, but his wins in the UFC are Dan Hooker and a far gone Tony Ferguson sooo......

I mean if you only count UFC fights I agree with this but if Chandler decides to use his wrestling I have him as the favorite, the gap in their wrestling/sub grappling is bigger in Chandler's favor than the striking is in Dustin's. Dan Hooker also went to a 47-48 decision with Dustin and Chandler KOed him in less than a round.

 

[NoBiasJustMMA]

Chandler's only chance is to somehow KO Dustin. His wrestling may be superior, but it's not elite enough to keep Dustin down. Dustin by TKO, possibly in a war, but most likely picking him apart with leg kicks and opportunistic punches.

I don't get where you're getting this from, Chandler has taken down and kept down much better grapplers than Dustin. I see it as Dustin having to get the finish since Chandler can control where the fight takes place and has better sub grappling than Dustin as well.

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Chandler will be able to take him down

When was the last time you've seen Chandler go for a takedown?

And when did he actually get one?

 

[NoBiasJustMMA]

When was the last time you've seen Chandler go for a takedown?

And when did he actually get one?

His last two fights.

He took Ferguson and Gaethje down.

 

[It's-Only-Business]

I'm sure Conor is a factor

This is absolutely the correct answer. I don't know if you intended it that way, but I will explain.

The bookmaker's are not interested in picking the winner. That is for the bettors. The bookmaker wants equal money on both sides so that when the bets are tallied, they have the vig. No matter who wins , they win.

A fighter like Dustin fought Conor 3X, winning twice. That raises his profile with the public, hence, more bets on Dustin.....therefore, by making him the favorite, the public will bet on him more.

 

[Adebisi]

This is absolutely the correct answer. I don't know if you intended it that way, but I will explain.

The bookmaker's are not interested in picking the winner. That is for the bettors. The bookmaker wants equal money on both sides so that when the bets are tallied, they have the vig. No matter who wins , they win.

A fighter like Dustin fought Conor 3X, winning twice. That raises his profile with the public, hence, more bets on Dustin.....therefore, by making him the favorite, the public will bet on him more.

The opposite is just as true, though. Public/Recreational bettors love betting on underdogs far more than laying money on a favorite. Bookmakers often lure them in with favorable lines for known/popular fighters.

Oliveira received around 65-70% of the bets against Islam. I said the same would happen at the time, it was a bait line, while sharps were on Islam.

In this fight, it wouldn’t surprise me if Chandler at dog odds got more bets/money and the line continues to close.

 

[BoxerMaurits]

I don't get it, he doesn't have the TDD of Gaethje to make it a standing affair. Chandler will be able to take him down and if Chandler did well against Oliveira on the ground what does he have to fear about Poiriers bottom game? And even in the striking exchanges before he gets the takedown I can see him do alright, he has unorthodox strikes (the front kick KO..) and is explosive. Like in what fashion can Poirier win? I guess by not getting finished on the ground and waiting for his KO/TKO oppertunity in the stand up when(/if) Chandler gasses in the later rounds?

Hello fellow Dutchman

 

[linvillegorge]

He should be. He's the cleaner, more skilled striker and his TDD is decent. Chandler likely won't shoot unless he's getting lit up anyway. I mean, people forget that a completely washed up Tony Ferguson was thoroughly getting the better of Chandler on the feet in the early going of their fight prior to the takedown and GnP.

Chandler can punch like a mule kicks and could absolutely catch Dustin with a big shot but I honestly think it's Dustin's fight to lose.

 

[Sosua]

I think Dustin is the rightful favourite - not by a huge margin, I would say its 65/35ish.

Chandler gets tagged too much and Dustin is pretty good at punching people in the face.

Obviously Chandler has a great shot of knocking him out too.

 

[KingBarbozaGOAT]

Chandler sucks after the 1st round

 

[jeff7b9]

If you are confident that the odds are wrong then go get that free money.


Or...

Maybe the oddmakers are aware that Chandler has exceptionally dumb fight IQ, can't follow a gameplan and is easily drawn into striking exchanges with fighters who have longer reach and better technical striking.

He is entertaining as fuck, but he is also 2-2 in the UFC with wins over guys on pretty bad skids. Hooker has lost 4 of 5, Tony has lost 4 straight.

 

[drbolony]

Cause Chandler only came to the UFC to BANG

 

[rakeleaves]

Chandler has suspect defense, and his chin isn't great. He gets dropped every fight.

 

[cburm]

Diamond smoked gaethje who had a hard time vs Chandler.. this is why look at his record .. what strikers has he lost too .. Dustin is gotta be the 4th dangerouse at lw islam olivera dariush Dustin ???? Marks after that a bunch of strikers who got nothing to offer sitting in the 5 to 10 spot for now

 

[TheTickG]

I don't get it, he doesn't have the TDD of Gaethje to make it a standing affair. Chandler will be able to take him down and if Chandler did well against Oliveira on the ground what does he have to fear about Poiriers bottom game? And even in the striking exchanges before he gets the takedown I can see him do alright, he has unorthodox strikes (the front kick KO..) and is explosive. Like in what fashion can Poirier win? I guess by not getting finished on the ground and waiting for his KO/TKO oppertunity in the stand up when(/if) Chandler gasses in the later rounds?

Is it a 5 round fight? If so, people might be thinking that Dustin does enough in the first three while completely taking over in the second half of the fight.

I'm rooting for Chandler though.

 

[Peruvian Necktie]

Sounds like an opportunity, TS!

 

[Doctor Grudge]

Because Dustin is more famous and has beaten more famous fighters.

 

[Morning Star]

Chandler is all or nothing. Explosive manlet

 

[GearSolidMetal]

Chandler sucks after the 1st round

Tony agrees.

 

[CedricBee]

Eh, Dustin isn't blindingly fast in hand speed (especially in comparison to guys like Michael Johnson in his prime) but I would never go so far as to call him "slow" -- and would consider him above a few other guys, even some strikers. I'm not really sure where Pettis and Barboza come into this.

But yes, I do generally agree that Poirier's combination-punching will be a critical part of any victory (as it's something you just don't see to the same extent from Chandler, who tends to load up) and the fact that he just doesn't let guys off the hook at any point whatsoever. Chandler will probably be faster in terms of sheer fast-twitch explosive punch speed in the first 1.5 rounds, but I wouldn't be overly surprised if Poirier ends up being or at least seeming faster in a purely practical sense due to his straight shots in comparison to Mike's tendency to, again, load up a bit and throw things a bit too loopy for his own good at times.

Dustin by TKO in the second half is also my pick, but 4th round would indeed by quite a feat given that the fight is only scheduled for three...

It’s not the main event thus 5 rounds?