Why is Poirier the favorite at the bookmakers?

[kingghidrah]

I’m upside to se someone thinks Dustin has a boring style. I don’t think he’s ever been in a bad fight.

I think he meant Dustin's personal style is boring. Not dynamic, not great at trash talk, just talks about his charity all the time.

 

[richardjohnson]

Chandler is an entertaining fighter but he has about a round and a half of cardio, his defense isn't that great combined with his chin also not being very good. People talk about him working in his wrestling but I think his cardio will fail him trying that considering he doesn't have much of a submission threat and would likely need to grind out a decision. IMO his best chance to victory is to get Dustin out of there early and while he certainly has the power to do that I think it's unlikely.

 

[ImNotMirsadBektic]

dustin stopped alvarez's wrestling
ate all of gaethje's leg kicks and finished him late.
outboxed conor.
solid chin at 155.
can go 5 rounds

by contrast chandler has a glass chin.
has been wobbled in his last 5 fights ( KO by pitbull, TKO by olives, wobbled by Tony and Gaethje)
he doesn't wrestle because of cardio issues. (even gaethje stopped his TDs)

Dustin didn't stop Alvarez's TD's?
He outboxed a Conor years out of his prime (that said I agree he is a great boxer).
I agree he has a good chin.

I wouldn't say Chandler has a glass chin, rather mediocre striking defense (which is why he got wobbled in his last 5 fights). I mean he got hit quite a few times against Gaethje and didn't go out.
He faced some tough opposition with either good bottom game BJJ or good TDD. Not sure why you say 'even' Gaethje, as his wrestling credentials speak for themselves.
I agree he might have cardio issues, but I think those would not play part until the championship rounds (maybe third round at the earliest) and with the gameplan I think should he employ a wrestling heavy gameplan (take Poirer down and try to finish him on the ground) I think he can either finish Poirier before the gastank is empty, or he can empty Poiriers gastank along with his own by dominating him on the ground the first few rounds.

 

[Mal Intentions]

chandler just got left hook larry'd by charles and u dont think dustin will be able to do the same?

 

[Adebisi]

Lol why is Chandler so highly regarded? It’s crazy how overrated he is.

 

[Liverkick-king56]

I've thought Chandler is overrated back in Bellator and I still think he isn't a top LW or ever was.
With that said Chandler has been killing it with what he has and he knows how to win.

Issue is Poirier is arguably the best striker at LW and Chandler doesn't have great top control. Amazing Takedowns but his top control is okay.
This probably goes like the Eddie/Dustin fight where Chandler has early success but the power and ability to string combos makes Chandler wilt. Poirier isn't the guy who's going to get caught early anymore, he can be broken by grappling but striking he's solid everywhere.

 

[Exarch01]

I think both of them are on the decline, but Chandler more so. He's been in too many wars with Will Brooks, Eddie Alvarez, the Pitbulls, and more recently Ferguson, Gathje, and Oliveira.

I'm picking Poirier by late finish. Like the Gaethje fight, but with the TKO because Poirier fights smarter than Gaethje.

 

[Safton]

Chandler is a live underdog due to his power* and offensive wrestling on paper, yes. But it's fairly rare that Chandler goes out with the intent of wrestle-fucking someone for a full three to five rounds. He almost always engages in a scrap with them at some point -- typically in the first 1.5 rounds when his explosiveness is at its peak and he's a tremendous knockout threat. After that, yes, he'll tend to go into a "fight management mode" where he will start mixing in TDs, ground control, GnP, and even attacking submissions of his own if they appear. So yes, I could see a world where Chandler comes out and forces Dustin to respect the takedown threat before catching him on the feet and sleeping him. Or after a scrappy first round maybe he mixes in his takedowns and ground control, shutting down Dustin's guard (Chandler's submission defense is elite and he's managed to shut down the likes of Oliveira, Primus, and Hendo) to grind out a Decision win or possibly even finding a finish on the mat. It's certainly not outside the realm of possibility.

That being said... Dustin has vastly superior boxing fundamentals, fast hands, hits more than hard enough to hurt Mike's iffy chin, and actually retains his power down the stretch of a fight. His resume is superior... though admittedly not by the absurdly massive margin that some are making it out to be. Chandler is 1-1 with Alvarez and finished him in their first meeting before dropping a controversial Split in their rematch. Conversely, Dustin actually faced some legitimate adversity (to varying degrees) in both Alvarez fights and benefited extensively from Eddie being an idiot and committing blatant fouls when he had dominant grappling positions over him. Still, credit to him for making it through those fights and finding his spots.

As far as Dustin's defensive grappling goes, that'll be the thing I guess. His TDD across his UFC career is a mediocre 64%. I fully expect Chandler to get him down at some point, but it's a question of whether he can hold him down and keep going to the well with the takedowns. I think if he focuses purely on a good sprawl and scramble he should be able to get it done -- he's shown decent wrestling fundamentals in past fights, just not particularly elite. But so help me if he jumps that stupid fucking guillotine against Chandler of all people...


*Michael Johnson could knock Dustin dead at Lightweight, so can Chandler... if he finds the right punch but that's a big "if".

 

[SeattleFightFan]

I've thought Chandler is overrated back in Bellator and I still think he isn't a top LW or ever was.
With that said Chandler has been killing it with what he has and he knows how to win.

Issue is Poirier is arguably the best striker at LW and Chandler doesn't have great top control. Amazing Takedowns but his top control is okay.
This probably goes like the Eddie/Dustin fight where Chandler has early success but the power and ability to string combos makes Chandler wilt. Poirier isn't the guy who's going to get caught early anymore, he can be broken by grappling but striking he's solid everywhere.

that's a good answer to TS's opinion (and/or a good counter to TS's assertion).

 

[fg1985bg]

I’m rooting for Chandler but he should be the underdog. He’s just too chinny. He’s been stunned or hurt bad in his last 3 fights. He does have the explosive power and wrestling. However Dustin is just more disciplined. Chandler is more concerned at times with being dynamic and exciting then winning. It’s why we love him but it is what it is.

Betting wise though, I don’t see how this fight goes the distance in either direction. Being that this is a 3 round fight, both guys are going to be chasing that finish. The bottom line is that Dustin is more disciplined and has the better chin.

 

[HaulParris]

I think both of them are on the decline, but Chandler more so. He's been in too many wars with Will Brooks, Eddie Alvarez, the Pitbulls, and more recently Ferguson, Gathje, and Oliveira.

I'm picking Poirier by late finish. Like the Gaethje fight, but with the TKO because Poirier fights smarter than Gaethje.

I agree

 

[RockyLockridge]

I expect chandler to pop dustins head off.

I think dustin is generally WAY overestimated.

IMO dustin hasn't looked good in a LONG time, maybe against max Holloway he looked good, but that was years ago.

After that his only wins are hooker and conor. He went life and death with hooker, and conor is washed up too.

Time has passed and I believe when poirier shows up to fight chandler, he will look old.

 

[BJJ Lover]

His chin is better.

He has less power than Chandler but he has enough power to hurt Chandler if he wants.

His boxing is better.

His stamina is better.

He's less cringe.

Chandler isn't Khabib. You using Gaethje stuffing Chandler as an example of that proves this point. Poirier, at the very minimum, has enough grappling to prevent a complete lay n' pray from Chandler

 

[BJJ Lover]

I expect chandler to pop dustins head off.

I think dustin is generally WAY overestimated.

IMO dustin hasn't looked good in a LONG time, maybe against max Holloway he looked good, but that was years ago.

After that his only wins are hooker and conor. He went life and death with hooker, and conor is washed up too.

Time has passed and I believe when poirier shows up to fight chandler, he will look old.

What did Chandler do in that timeframe?

The only thing he did in the UFC is beat that very same Hooker and TKO the most washed up lightweight in the UFC (and you talk about Conor being washed up).

 

[Repusman]

Chandler is a human punching bag. He literally leaves himself open for strikes and invites punches/kicks to the head. The man acts like CTE doesn't exist. Porier may be a dis-interesting personality with a boring style, but he still has power.

If you think Poirier is boring then MMA is not for you. Go watch WWE.

 

[sonhow]

Lol Poirier's stock fell with a loss to Charles for sure. If he wins he might be the lw goat again I guess. Now he is kind of a can.
Some of the comments here are straight up dumpster fire.

 

[Adebisi]

What did Chandler do in that timeframe?

The only thing he did in the UFC is beat that very same Hooker and TKO the most washed up lightweight in the UFC (and you talk about Conor being washed up).

Ya, that was a strange argument. Like Poirier, Chandler beat Hooker. His other win was an even more washed fighter than Conor.

 

[Exarch01]

Lol Poirier's stock fell with a loss to Charles for sure. If he wins he might be the lw goat again I guess. Now he is kind of a can.
Some of the comments here are straight up dumpster fire.

Poirier is either the GOAT or a can? I'm not sure if you're being ironic or not.

 

[RockyLockridge]

What did Chandler do in that timeframe?

The only thing he did in the UFC is beat that very same Hooker and TKO the most washed up lightweight in the UFC (and you talk about Conor being washed up).

but that's MY point, porier isn't leauge ahead of him or anything like that.

Ya, that was a strange argument. Like Poirier, Chandler beat Hooker. His other win was an even more washed fighter than Conor.

Dustin went life and death with hooker, Chandler decapicated his washed up bums.

against similar competition, Chandler has looked better IMO. I thought chandler was closer to beating charles than dustin ever got as well.

 

[wisdom blows]

If it stays standing, I think Dustin wins. If Chandler wrestles, he wins.