Why does Gaethje feel entitled to a title shot?

[Bowel-forged Stool]

For about 80 seconds then Justin's age, diminished reflexes and penchant for brawling would leave him out and laying on his back. We've seen Topuria beat enough other shopworn strikers in their mid-to-late 30s.

Topuria married and knocked up a hoe, though. He might not be the same guy anymore.

 

[KO Shotz]

It all steams from Gaethje being the number 1 contender to fight Islam for the belt but was called upon to save the UFC 300 card. Islam was taking his sweet time getting a fight set up with Gaethje, UFC 300 needed a main event, so Gaethje took the fight against Max. He took a gamble & lost & it fucked up his title shot obviously, but in Justin's mind, he believes he is owed something due to him stepping up for the company & saving 300 no matter him winning or losing. & Max went back to FW after beating Justin so it could be argued that Gaethjes loss to Max shouldn't affect his LW standing. Also, he is coming off a win. Yes it was against Fiziev but he was originally supposed to fight top 5 Dan Hooker. In Justin's mind, its not his fault Dan had to pull out. He rebounded from his loss, is a top guy in division with a loss in the BMF fight against a guy who at the time wasn't a LW. In his mind.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

For about 80 seconds then Justin's age, diminished reflexes and penchant for brawling would leave him out and laying on his back. We've seen Topuria beat enough other shopworn strikers in their mid-to-late 30s.

I don't even think Gaethje being shopworn has anything to do with him losing this fight.

Justin looked super slow vs Max. Imagine how he would look like vs Topuria.

That fight would be a mismatch.

 

[P4p Islam]

bc hes an absolute clown.

What makes him a clown?

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

MMA math is a fallacy people use to say Person A is better than Person B because of their victories. It's obviously not true, but it IS how divisional heirarchy works, and a title contender should be the highest guy up based on those wins.

Dustin didn't "deserve" or "earn" a shot when he got one. Here's the thing, a shot should always be, who is the 'most deserving,' and sometimes "most" means, "not deserving, but more than anyone else" whenever the champ is ready to go. So what did the division look like when Dustin got booked for the title and should anyone have clearly been in front of him?

-Arman, the rightful contender, was suspended.
-Charles just lost to Arman.
-Justin just lost to Max.
-Max was moving back to FW.
-Dariush was on a 2 fight losing streak and injured.
-Chandler was off a loss and waiting for Conor.
-Fiziev was off a loss and still injured.

^No acceptable choices.

1) There was Moicano on a 3 fight win streak, with ranked wins over #15 Dober, and #10 Turner, but that last fight was a day before the title shot announcement, so he was obviously not a consideration

2) Gamrot was on a 3 fight win streak, #10 Turner, #6 Fiz, and then going from being snubbed as the title fight backup to fighting #11 RDA for some reason. He's the only one getting screwed here and I've got no idea why he wasn't considered.

3) Dustin was in the top 5, and on the same event that Gamrot beat #11 RDA, Dustin beat #12 BSD.

Dustin was the 2nd best pick available. Shoulda been Gamrot, but it only takes 1 skip to get to Dustin as the choice.

Is that the same case for Justin today?

-Arman is still clearly the rightful contender and this time, isn't suspended, he's just in the doghouse. No real reason he can't fight for the title, other than the UFC's choice.

-Like I mentioned before with divisional hierarchy: Justin is off a Fiz win. Hooker is off a streak ending with a Gamrot win. Gamrot beat Fiziev, so Hooker should be closer to a title shot.

-If Justin's BMF fight at LW somehow doesn't count against his standing in the LW division, I'd argue Max's FW title fight loss counts against him even less. His turnaround win over Dustin ranks much better than Justin's turnaround win over Fiziev.

Justin is already at 4th best choice right there, and that's without trying to make a case for Paddy, 7-0 in the UFC, last beating a #7 ranked Chandler (Fiziev was #11 when Justin beat him the second time). So unlike with Dustin, where just 1 errant phone call or negotiation slip up makes him next, Justin would need at least 3.

So the "But Dustin" answer can get paraded around as much as anyone likes but,

And it's got nothing to do with "different standards." It's purely the same standards, and by those standards, Justin and Dustin are 2 different situations.

*edit*
Let's explore even deeper into the timeline where Justin "deserved the shot."

Justin lost to Charles on 5/7/22, Charles lost to Islam on 10/22/22.
Justin turned around and went back into the rankings to beat Fiz to defend his spot, not just rank squatting. Then he knocked out Dustin for the BMF belt (let's ignore that BMF fights apparently don't count, according to his later arguments) in July 2023. Fiziev was a hot prospect, Dustin was an established name, but with cooled off momentum. What neither of them were was the top contender.

June of 2023, Charles turned around and beat Dariush, who was on an 8 fight win streak, was the de-facto contender, and has already had multiple pairings with Oliveira and Islam, so he was in the prime position to be next, but Charles defended that.

Even still, summer of 2023, the UFC could have easily gone with Justin instead Charles for the October fight. They did end up going with Charles, but that doesn't mean Justin had to fight again to be next up. As soon as Charles-Islam was settled, Justin could still be next up.

Problem: The Charles fight then fell through. So Charles was still technically ahead of Justin, in that he was picked first, but it's still a head to head argument. At this point, no one can really say that Justin was "due the shot" when his and Charles' circumstances since the last time Charles got the nod for the shot over Justin hadn't changed. If they rolled the dice again for who could have fought Islam next, it could still easily have been Charles.

But Islam, for whatever reason, isn't ready to fight until after UFC 300 in April. Charles and Justin are both in no-man's land about who will be picked first. Either could wait and get the shot, or could leapfrog the other by winning a fight. Charles doesn't sit around to wait to see if he'll get rebooked, he gets booked against Arman as early as January 10th. This means Justin is now officially either ready to go immediately (doesn't happen), or he will need to win a fight to not become second fiddle to an established title contender fight. So a week later, his fight against Max was announced.

So this weird narrative that Justin got "screwed" out of a title shot is already pretty empty of substance, and that's even if we ignore the fact that it doesn't matter once you gamble and lose. The fact you should have been a winner before you lost is out the window after losing.

It's just a bunch of really tired arguments being recycled that have only a surface level of actually merit that could be scraped off with a penny, and people are using them basically for just one of two reasons. "I like Justin because he's exciting" and/or "I don't really like Dustin and am still sour about that title shot."

 

[Bork Neslar]

In other words, you're convinced you know better than Gaethje how he should feel... You people are insane.

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

In other words, you're convinced you know better than Gaethje how he should feel... You people are insane.

Feelings are valid. Doesn't mean they make for compelling arguments. People still usually have a reason for feeling certain ways.

You can't blame him really, every fighter thinks they deserve a title fight.

I blame all of them too.

He was due a shot when he decided to step in and save UFC 300. Poirier (who he had just KO'd) went on to get his shot instead.

He really wasn't though. He could have been at a time the champ wasn't ready (really between him and another guy who already beat him), but by the time the champ would be ready to go, Justin was getting leapfrogged. So no, he wasn't "due" anything.

 

[NicholasJBasile]

I'm a huge Gaethje fan ( see pfp), but I'm genuinely curious as to why he feels entitled to a shot. He's on a 1 fight win streak against a mid carder in Fiziev but I think most people still have his brutal knockout loss to FW Holloway on their mind. Did I miss something? Or is it basically like "I've sacrificed myself to the JBG my whole career and if I don't get what I want I'm done"?

I'm right with you. I'm a fan of Gaethje myself but he's nowhere near a title shot imo in comparison with Arman or Oliveira. I think he's just campaigning hard for it since he wants to win a belt before he retires.

 

[JKS]

While I do agree, Gaethje was the rightful person for the title over Oliveira who didn’t deserve the rematch with Makhachev, the rematch that he pulled out of it, that Volkanovski jumped in for. Gaethje kinda did himself disservice by not being professional as he was the first one called for replacement but couldn’t make it due to being out of shape.

That Holloway bout took a lot of wind out of his sails, I mean he got outclassed, although he had his moments it was a comfortable beat down & we all know MMA moves quick, especially in talent filled divisions. Imo the top of the division in terms of next title shot is. Tsarukyan, but his time sitting out not fighting lowered his chances if he beats Hooker, it’s Tsarukyan thst gets it. Holloway, Gaethje & Pimblett all have fought recently, the most impressive of them in terms of how good he looked was Pimblett, if Gaethje really doesn’t count the Holloway loss then I don’t understand why he just doesn’t call Holloway again for a rematch.

I'd say Olivera deserved that rematch with Mak over Justin. Olivera beat Dariush who was on a 8 fight win streak by a 1st round KO, Justin on the contrary beat Fiziev my a majority decision around the same time. And Olivera also had a submission win over Justin the year prior.

 

[Karate Kid]

MMA math is a fallacy people use to say Person A is better than Person B because of their victories. It's obviously not true, but it IS how divisional heirarchy works, and a title contender should be the highest guy up based on those wins.

Dustin didn't "deserve" or "earn" a shot when he got one. Here's the thing, a shot should always be, who is the 'most deserving,' and sometimes "most" means, "not deserving, but more than anyone else" whenever the champ is ready to go. So what did the division look like when Dustin got booked for the title and should anyone have clearly been in front of him?

-Arman, the rightful contender, was suspended.
-Charles just lost to Arman.
-Justin just lost to Max.
-Max was moving back to FW.
-Dariush was on a 2 fight losing streak and injured.
-Chandler was off a loss and waiting for Conor.
-Fiziev was off a loss and still injured.

^No acceptable choices.

1) There was Moicano on a 3 fight win streak, with ranked wins over #15 Dober, and #10 Turner, but that last fight was a day before the title shot announcement, so he was obviously not a consideration

2) Gamrot was on a 3 fight win streak, #10 Turner, #6 Fiz, and then going from being snubbed as the title fight backup to fighting #11 RDA for some reason. He's the only one getting screwed here and I've got no idea why he wasn't considered.

3) Dustin was in the top 5, and on the same event that Gamrot beat #11 RDA, Dustin beat #12 BSD.

Dustin was the 2nd best pick available. Shoulda been Gamrot, but it only takes 1 skip to get to Dustin as the choice.

Is that the same case for Justin today?

-Arman is still clearly the rightful contender and this time, isn't suspended, he's just in the doghouse. No real reason he can't fight for the title, other than the UFC's choice.

-Like I mentioned before with divisional hierarchy: Justin is off a Fiz win. Hooker is off a streak ending with a Gamrot win. Gamrot beat Fiziev, so Hooker should be closer to a title shot.

-If Justin's BMF fight at LW somehow doesn't count against his standing in the LW division, I'd argue Max's FW title fight loss counts against him even less. His turnaround win over Dustin ranks much better than Justin's turnaround win over Fiziev.

Justin is already at 4th best choice right there, and that's without trying to make a case for Paddy, 7-0 in the UFC, last beating a #7 ranked Chandler (Fiziev was #11 when Justin beat him the second time). So unlike with Dustin, where just 1 errant phone call or negotiation slip up makes him next, Justin would need at least 3.

So the "But Dustin" answer can get paraded around as much as anyone likes but,

And it's got nothing to do with "different standards." It's purely the same standards, and by those standards, Justin and Dustin are 2 different situations.

*edit*
Let's explore even deeper into the timeline where Justin "deserved the shot."

Justin lost to Charles on 5/7/22, Charles lost to Islam on 10/22/22.
Justin turned around and went back into the rankings to beat Fiz to defend his spot, not just rank squatting. Then he knocked out Dustin for the BMF belt (let's ignore that BMF fights apparently don't count, according to his later arguments) in July 2023. Fiziev was a hot prospect, Dustin was an established name, but with cooled off momentum. What neither of them were was the top contender.

June of 2023, Charles turned around and beat Dariush, who was on an 8 fight win streak, was the de-facto contender, and has already had multiple pairings with Oliveira and Islam, so he was in the prime position to be next, but Charles defended that.

Even still, summer of 2023, the UFC could have easily gone with Justin instead Charles for the October fight. They did end up going with Charles, but that doesn't mean Justin had to fight again to be next up. As soon as Charles-Islam was settled, Justin could still be next up.

Problem: The Charles fight then fell through. So Charles was still technically ahead of Justin, in that he was picked first, but it's still a head to head argument. At this point, no one can really say that Justin was "due the shot" when his and Charles' circumstances since the last time Charles got the nod for the shot over Justin hadn't changed. If they rolled the dice again for who could have fought Islam next, it could still easily have been Charles.

But Islam, for whatever reason, isn't ready to fight until after UFC 300 in April. Charles and Justin are both in no-man's land about who will be picked first. Either could wait and get the shot, or could leapfrog the other by winning a fight. Charles doesn't sit around to wait to see if he'll get rebooked, he gets booked against Arman as early as January 10th. This means Justin is now officially either ready to go immediately (doesn't happen), or he will need to win a fight to not become second fiddle to an established title contender fight. So a week later, his fight against Max was announced.

So this weird narrative that Justin got "screwed" out of a title shot is already pretty empty of substance, and that's even if we ignore the fact that it doesn't matter once you gamble and lose. The fact you should have been a winner before you lost is out the window after losing.

It's just a bunch of really tired arguments being recycled that have only a surface level of actually merit that could be scraped off with a penny, and people are using them basically for just one of two reasons. "I like Justin because he's exciting" and/or "I don't really like Dustin and am still sour about that title shot."

this all could have been more effective with a bit more brevity but the point itself is outstanding. objectivity isnt a general thing on this forum for when you criticise a fighter who also happens to be "exciting" you're usually met with the response as goes: "what, you dont like exciting fighters?" JG is a fighter who isnt the brightest but is smart enough to market his violent and exciting moniker to propel him forward but has time and time shown again he doesn't hold a candle to the actual elite fighters and his career has gone off on an underwhelming fade-away.

its why Dagestanis have close to no popularity here whereas its not just based on nationality but how much entertainment one fighters gives another, providing cognitive bias to that said fighter therefore a very clouded judgement on who deserves what,

not realising deserve is a totally dysfunctional word in itself.

 

[cburm]

I'm a huge Gaethje fan ( see pfp), but I'm genuinely curious as to why he feels entitled to a shot. He's on a 1 fight win streak against a mid carder in Fiziev but I think most people still have his brutal knockout loss to FW Holloway on their mind. Did I miss something? Or is it basically like "I've sacrificed myself to the JBG my whole career and if I don't get what I want I'm done"?

Because gaethje earned it and then had to have surgery... He was the n1 contendor and was promised the title fight his surgery made casuals forget.

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

Because gaethje earned it and then had to have surgery... He was the n1 contendor and was promised the title fight his surgery made casuals forget.

What surgery? The only surgery I remember him getting since beating Dustin was when Dr. Holloway gave him emergency rhinoplasty at UFC 300.

He was never the #1 contender, and I don't think I've ever seen anything except forum posters say he was promised a title fight.

 

[Söze Aldo]

Because the loss to Holloway doesn't count, he said it was an exhibition fight!

View attachment 1119919

Lame comment by Justin. One step above saying "I actually wanted to get KOd by Max".

Dumb or not, the UFC practically treats the BMF belt like it's a real title, and Justin knows that.

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

this all could have been more effective with a bit more brevity

True, but every time I'm brief addressing this, everyone tries to find another BS excuse for Justin, so I figured I'd dig up the weeds on every little excuse.

but the point itself is outstanding. objectivity isnt a general thing on this forum for when you criticise a fighter who also happens to be "exciting" you're usually met with the response as goes: "what, you dont like exciting fighters?" JG is a fighter who isnt the brightest but is smart enough to market his violent and exciting moniker to propel him forward but has time and time shown again he doesn't hold a candle to the actual elite fighters and his career has gone off on an underwhelming fade-away.

its why Dagestanis have close to no popularity here whereas its not just based on nationality but how much entertainment one fighters gives another, providing cognitive bias to that said fighter therefore a very clouded judgement on who deserves what,

not realising deserve is a totally dysfunctional word in itself.

I mean, the guy is super exciting. He's always been high up the rankings, and was an arguable contender alongside Charles, and he got called a rank squatter despite fighting Fiz when he was superhot the first time around.

But like you said, he kept hitting his highest levels at times when LW was it's most competitive and he kept losing to the top. Dustin getting a shot when LW was less competitive doesn't overwrite the fact there has, almost every single minute over the past 3 years, always been a better choice than Justin.

 

[Mohawk Banditó]

Lame comment by Justin. One step above saying "I actually wanted to get KOd by Max".

Dumb or not, the UFC practically treats the BMF belt like it's a real title, and Justin knows that.

Don't forget: the BMF fight against Dustin wasn't an exhibition fight though. No no, THAT one mattered a lot and should have got Justin a title shot.

Only his BMF loss to Max doesn't count.

It's as strong as of a defense as back when we were playing cops and robbers as 7 year olds and your shots didn't count because I had armor.

 

[mkt]

Have we?

Yep.
Josh Emmett was 39
Volk was 36
Max was a few years younger than those two, but has been through a ridiculous number of 5-round wars and hasn't been FW champ since 2019.

 

[mkt]

In some ways, Ilia will be in a lose-lose situation with some fans, no matter whether he fights Justin or Paddy.

If he KOs Paddy, some people will just say Paddy was an unproven hype job this whole time. If he KOs Justin, they’ll claim he just knocked out another shopworn fighter on his way out.

In reality, either victory would be impressive.

I think Paddy (and of course Arman) would be more impressive. As I stated, Ilia has already beaten three shopworn strikers in their mid-to-late 30s. Paddy is unproven, but seems to have a great chin that hasn't been melted yet...and is a huge LW with a grappling threat. And of course Arman brings the grappling threat as well.

 

[Morris88]

He's spilled his blood and lost countless brain cells entertaining us and knows the end of his career is close. One last shot at glory.

 

[GrantB13]

Because the UFC has enabled this kind of behavior by giving these guys - even Gaethje once before - title fights off of a single or even zero wins. They keep fighters ranked too high for too long in a lot of cases but that's inconsistent as well. They create a position where a fighter going 0-2 can still be ranked #5 and then it's hard to not consider them for a title shot when they win because they don't allow enough room at the top to increase their ranking.

 

[teamfox223]

This is his last chance, he won't beat any of the top contenders anymore only way is to hope for a title. At this point I'm favoring Paddy to beat him.