Nah, mate, I'm basing that off way more than just his last three.
Dober isn't some stud wrestler, but he's got heavy hands and good, clean striking. If a sloppier guy with less power like Lando was almost finishing Tony in the first round until he gassed, then someone like Dober would have beaten him.
I don't think Tony would have been able to get much happening on the ground either, mainly because he'd struggle to get a strong guy like Dober down. Tony has never had good takedowns at all. A lot of his grappling is reactionary, as in when his opponent is gassed or hurt from strikes or shoots themselves.