Honestly?
Any prospect is a nightmare.
Bettors are gonna whine all day because of their lost money.
Recent nightmares and reasons for it:
Payton Talbott: blue chip prospect who was showing wrestling issues since the beginning. Still, was the most favourite fighter in UFC 311... And got manhandled.
Vitor Petrino: Dude was riding a 4 fight winning streak till he met Anthony Smith. Tapology says he was a -550 heavy favourite. Got subbed in less than a half round. Even with the loss, the hype carried through his next fight against Dustin Jacoby where he was a -310. I confess even i carried on this one by thinking Jacoby was a done deal... Well... All i can say is that bettors want him cut now lol (i don't carry this opinion).
Anatoly Malykhin: ONE's former triple champion. I don't really trust ONE's antics but anyway. Like said before he carried 3 ONE's belts and was carrying 5 finishes (two against RDR) in his ONE stint... Till he faced Reug Reug... Malykhin was a -700 fav on this one since Reug Reug had suspicious cardio and was technically inferior to him... Still... Managed to get a Split decision of him.
Any japanese prospect: I'm citing in general because, IMO, due to their way of training, i believe most of japanese prospects are quite hard to bet on because... They basically lack skill to compete overseas in the big leagues. Of course, from time time we get guys like Horiguchi and Taira, but overall... I don't think they are reliable at all.
Some examples:
Rinya Nakamura: 9-0 coming from 3 wins before he faced Muin Gafurov (Nakamura was a -600)
Yusaku Kinoshita: Got a DWCS contract by knocking out some random fella... His next fight he was a -340 and got owned. He procedeed to lost his next one also even though he was a slight favourite.
Hatsu Hioki: Old example i remembered. Dude went to UFC with title aspirations. I remember him saying he wanted one more bout before challenging the title. That bout went against Ricardo Llamas. He managed to lost that one... losing the next 2, before winning one and losing 2 more and being cut. His last UFC fight was against Dan Hooker which made me curious because, for some reason, Hioki was a -300 favourite at the time.
Jeka Saragih: I don't think this guy matches here, but he's an interesting case: His last fight, against Westin Wilson, he was a -360 favourite... And i don't really know the reason at all for it lol. He was coming from a performance of the night on his last one while Wilson was coming of a loss... But still... All i can say is that i made money on this lol
