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Elections What's your final prediction in who wins in the US 2024 election?

Who's going to win?

  • Donald Trump

  • Kamala Harris


Results are only viewable after voting.
There is about 40 days left, who do you think will win?

**None of your votes will be shown, so you can vote anonymously.**

**And you can't change your vote, so vote honestly**

**Also you can't view the results until you vote**


I had Trump winning when Biden was still there and after the first assassination attempt.

Once Harris got in the picture, I had her winning this in a with a decent margin. But now I'm not sure. It's really close.

But If I had to pick and I will pick, however I'm not going to reveal it here. : - ) Let's just see what the results will be.

Crazy Kamala will probably win because of the following:

1. Putting in laws that no ID is needed to vote (absolute madness). #jailgavinnewsom
2. Vote harvesting by having no border, crazy kamala visited it ONCE. What a joke.
3. More voter fraud.
4. Brainwashing the masses that wokism, though a toxic cancer, is better than time-tested family values.
 
Not sure what you're talking about. I think Biden was the rational choice over Trump. But when he did poorly in the debate, he lost enough support that he looked like he had a lower chance of winning. It started with voters, and then others in the party picked it up, just like the guy said. Why do you think the same hasn't happen with Trump, even though he's unable to remember the questions he's asked and rambles incoherently in response to most questions?
Because Trump has always been hysterical and prone to over the top exaggeration, hyperbole and random shit he saw on twitter. This isn't new. While I agree he's lost a step from even 2020, it's not like Bidens drop off, especially after being told how sharp and capable he was.


I think the issue is rather that partisans will never admit that the other party has put up a reasonable candidate. None of the rightists who were saying that Biden was too old and even worse off mentally than Trump are now supporting Harris, are they? They just look for some flimsy pretext to write her off too. I think that gives the whole game away.
Well, we can test that theory as soon as either party puts up a reasonable candidate.

No, they arent supporting Harris. I dunno why you'd think I said they should? My point was base voters will deal with almost any bullshit from their own candidate so long as they thought they'd get 4 years of preferred policy out of them. How do you interpret that as my saying right wing voters should vote for Harris?
 
Because Trump has always been hysterical and prone to over the top exaggeration, hyperbole and random shit he saw on twitter. This isn't new. While I agree he's lost a step from even 2020, it's not like Bidens drop off, especially after being told how sharp and capable he was.



Well, we can test that theory as soon as either party puts up a reasonable candidate.

No, they arent supporting Harris. I dunno why you'd think I said they should? My point was base voters will deal with almost any bullshit from their own candidate so long as they thought they'd get 4 years of preferred policy out of them. How do you interpret that as my saying right wing voters should vote for Harris?

Reading comprehension my dude. He didn't say you said they should support Harris.

He's saying that Trump is the obvious mental midget left running in the race and that none of the Trump supporters are capable of placing the same standards on Trump as they would to literally anybody else.
 
Reading comprehension my dude. He didn't say you said they should support Harris.

He's saying that Trump is the obvious mental midget left running in the race and that none of the Trump supporters are capable of placing the same standards on Trump as they would to literally anybody else.
You mean just like the democratic base voters are incapable of doing? Again, how many people did you know that were in the tank for Biden for 4 years and then after the debate said "Oh, damn. I'm gonna vote Trump now"? Because what he lost wasn't his base, who would vote for him regardless of the Republican candidate, it was the undecideds that both sides have trouble appealing to because they need the much larger base block of voters. Just like Trump lost them in 2020. He didn't lose his base voters, did he?

I mean what you're saying is literally part of my argument. I don't know what you think I said that would make you think your statement contradicts my point.
 
Because Trump has always been hysterical and prone to over the top exaggeration, hyperbole and random shit he saw on twitter. This isn't new. While I agree he's lost a step from even 2020, it's not like Bidens drop off, especially after being told how sharp and capable he was.
First, the idea that Trump has always been unfit for office so that's why people are OK with it doesn't really support your claim that there's no difference in the coalitions. Second, I agree that Trump has never been the sharpest tool in the shed, but he's obviously declined a lot, and will only continue to.
Well, we can test that theory as soon as either party puts up a reasonable candidate.
Harris is a reasonable candidate. It's just that hardcore partisans like you will never admit that the other party has nominated a reasonable candidate. And before you try to rubber-glue it, note that I was posting during the 2012 campaign and said many times that Romney was a very good candidate.
No, they arent supporting Harris. I dunno why you'd think I said they should? My point was base voters will deal with almost any bullshit from their own candidate so long as they thought they'd get 4 years of preferred policy out of them. How do you interpret that as my saying right wing voters should vote for Harris?
I didn't interpret you as saying that. I don't think you would ever say that anyone should vote for any Democratic candidate. What I said was that when Biden was the candidate, Republicans tried to claim that he was mentally worse off than Trump, and asked why we can't get a good candidate. And then when he dropped out, you just see irrational attacks on Harris. It gives away the game. It's not about the individual candidate. Anyone Democrats nominate by definition is a horrible candidate to partisans.
 
You mean just like the democratic base voters are incapable of doing? Again, how many people did you know that were in the tank for Biden for 4 years and then after the debate said "Oh, damn. I'm gonna vote Trump now"?
None. Because the bases are different. Liberal voters aren't "in the tank" for any particular candidate. They mostly just want rational, evidence-based policy-making, and the individual candidates are generally interchangeable. If it turned out that Harris, say, committed fraud and tried to cover it up, liberals would have no problem just dropping her and subbing in Walz. Trump's base are people whose identities are wrapped in their fandom of the individual guy, which is a scary thing to those of us who believe in our constitutional gov't.
 
You mean just like the democratic base voters are incapable of doing? Again, how many people did you know that were in the tank for Biden for 4 years and then after the debate said "Oh, damn. I'm gonna vote Trump now"? Because what he lost wasn't his base, who would vote for him regardless of the Republican candidate, it was the undecideds that both sides have trouble appealing to because they need the much larger base block of voters. Just like Trump lost them in 2020. He didn't lose his base voters, did he?

I mean what you're saying is literally part of my argument. I don't know what you think I said that would make you think your statement contradicts my point.

Brother, why would Biden voters have to switch to Trump or vice versa? This is a scenario that nobody made up besides yourself. Voters can simply not vote or vote 3rd party.

The other option was to boot Biden off the ticket, which is exactly what Dems had to do lol. Biden was going to get slaughtered precisely because of the base slipping away. Then they came back to Kamala/Walz. That's counter intuitive to your argument, no?

You seem to have this grandiose idea that everyone lives in a politics bubble and posts on a political forum like we do. Regular ass people with kids and shit aren't sitting around and watching Biden speak every day lol not are they listening to Trump. Once they saw Biden on national TV during the debate, he was toast. His base eroded and they had to give him the boot.

I mean, you can just look at democratic voter enthusiasm before and after Biden if you'd like even more evidence of this being the case.

Another issue that you are having with your post is that you are co-mingling voter groups. There are a decent chunk of voters that are just flat out never going to vote for a Republican ticket with Donald Trump on it that would otherwise consider other candidates. Those people are not part of the democratic "base."

You also seem to think anybody is implying that Trump lost in 2020 because of his base. His base had high voter turnout. Trump lost in 2020 because the Dem's had high turnout as well. Dems also had the highest turnout combined with never trumpers, and combined with people who just flat out refused to vote for Trump after his absolute dumpster fire handling of the pandemic.

If you want even further evidence of this...we can go look at 2016. Ask yourself, why did Hillary Clinton lose? It's because her base eroded lol. Why did her base erode? Benghazi and Bernie Bros said fuck Hillary and didn't vote for her.
 
Brother, why would Biden voters have to switch to Trump or vice versa? This is a scenario that nobody made up besides yourself. Voters can simply not vote or vote 3rd party.
You can supplant Trump with anything. How many people do you know that were in the tank for Biden changed their mind after the debate? As opposed to people that were either undecided or just thought "Eh, I guess Biden".
The other option was to boot Biden off the ticket, which is exactly what Dems had to do lol. Biden was going to get slaughtered precisely because of the base slipping away. Then they came back to Kamala/Walz. That's counter intuitive to your argument, no?
Yes, he was probably going to lose (although, I wouldnt put it past Trump to grab defeat from the jaws of victory). You think it's because his base was slipping away. You know what? Fine. I don't agree with you but it's really something either one of us can prove.

You seem to have this grandiose idea that everyone lives in a politics bubble and posts on a political forum like we do. Regular ass people with kids and shit aren't sitting around and watching Biden speak every day lol not are they listening to Trump. Once they saw Biden on national TV during the debate, he was toast. His base eroded and they had to give him the boot.
This is literally part of who Im talking about when I talk about undecided voters. They saw the debate and said "Fuck that". Base democrat voters didnt change their mind at all.
Another issue that you are having with your post is that you are co-mingling voter groups. There are a decent chunk of voters that are just flat out never going to vote for a Republican ticket with Donald Trump on it that would otherwise consider other candidates. Those people are not part of the democratic "base."
If theyd vote for someone else, then they arent the base. Thats how bases work. At least according how the term is used.

In politics, a candidate or party's base or core support refers to the voters who will always support them for elected office.

Like I said earlier, we have to talk in generalities. There are certainly situations we could create where a base would for some reason not vote for their party. None of them came up in any recent election, though.

You also seem to think anybody is implying that Trump lost in 2020 because of his base. His base had high voter turnout. Trump lost in 2020 because the Dem's had high turnout as well. Dems also had the highest turnout combined with never trumpers, and combined with people who just flat out refused to vote for Trump after his absolute dumpster fire handling of the pandemic.
Huh? No. Trump lost because swing/undecided/disappointed voters were tired of his shit. His base didn't go anywhere.


If you want even further evidence of this...we can go look at 2016. Ask yourself, why did Hillary Clinton lose? It's because her base eroded lol. Why did her base erode? Benghazi and Bernie Bros said fuck Hillary and didn't vote for her.
Again, base voters dont say "Fuck my candidate". That's what makes them base voters. Theyre base voters for reasons I already explained multiple times. They prefer certain policy and really don't care who gives it to them.

I think Trump won for a number of reasons, but none of them are "Hillarys base didnt vote for her".



This whole conversation has already been derailed off of the original point, though. Which was basically "Trumps base will vote Trump no matter what, but democrats are smart, beautiful, rational people" (paraphrased).
 
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Liberal voters aren't "in the tank" for any particular candidate. They mostly just want rational, evidence-based policy-making , and the individual candidates are generally interchangeable.
giphy.webp



Agreed on the last part, though, but thats pretty much my point.
 
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Trump wins with 320-350 electors is my guess.

I guess it could change since we're still a month away from the election but something huge would have to happen for there to be any large changes.
What makes you say so? Just curious.
 
I've Kamala winning, I think Trump and his rhetoric are tired in 2024 and I've heard his campaign compared to Hillary's in 2016. I think the US has changed in that time and he's declined and lost a lot of his populist rhetoric, plus we've a track record to benchmark him meow. His unhinged remarks don't seem to be going over as well as in prior times and January 6th did him no favors. I didn't take him seriously enough as a threat to the stability of the country previously.

That it's even a question of whether or not he wins unsettles me but here we are.
 
What makes you say so? Just curious.

Polls that were off my 4-8 in 2020 are having Harris close to even in all of those swing states.

The most accurate pollster from 2020 has Trump winning the national vote by 3 points.

For example Biden was ahead 6.8 in the polling average in PA on this date 4 years ago and it's at a dead even tie now.
 
This whole conversation has already been derailed off of the original point, though. Which was basically "Trumps base will vote Trump no matter what, but democrats are smart, beautiful, rational people" (paraphrased).
Strawman, of course. But you have provided no argument for your claim you guys' willingness to overlook all of Trump's flaws is totally normal. It's just something you appear to take on faith.
 
Strawman, of course. But you have provided no argument for your claim you guys' willingness to overlook all of Trump's flaws is totally normal. It's just something you appear to take on faith.
What "you guys"? I've already said multiple times he's a clown, unfit for office and Im not voting for him. Your response is that Im "hardcore partisan".
 
You can supplant Trump with anything. How many people do you know that were in the tank for Biden changed their mind after the debate? As opposed to people that were either undecided or just thought "Eh, I guess Biden".

Yes, he was probably going to lose (although, I wouldnt put it past Trump to grab defeat from the jaws of victory). You think it's because his base was slipping away. You know what? Fine. I don't agree with you but it's really something either one of us can prove.


This is literally part of who Im talking about when I talk about undecided voters. They saw the debate and said "Fuck that". Base democrat voters didnt change their mind at all.

If theyd vote for someone else, then they arent the base. Thats how bases work. At least according how the term is used.



Like I said earlier, we have to talk in generalities. There are certainly situations we could create where a base would for some reason not vote for their party. None of them came up in any recent election, though.


Huh? No. Trump lost because swing/undecided/disappointed voters were tired of his shit. His base didn't go anywhere.



Again, base voters dont say "Fuck my candidate". That's what makes them base voters. Theyre base voters for reasons I already explained multiple times. They prefer certain policy and really don't care who gives it to them.

I think Trump won for a number of reasons, but none of them are "Hillarys base didnt vote for her".



This whole conversation has already been derailed off of the original point, though. Which was basically "Trumps base will vote Trump no matter what, but democrats are smart, beautiful, rational people" (paraphrased).

You don't get it lol. It was not only undecided voters who turned against Biden. It was undecided voters + part of the base. People who do not pay attention to politics 24/7 are absolutely part of the democratic and Republican base both. You're really telling me that there weren't a bunch of life long Democratic voters who were paying attention to how bad Biden had declined? Do you ever talk to regular people? Most people in general, Republican or Democrat, barely follow politics at all lmao. They aren't scouring twitter for Joe Brandon senile montages at 2am.
 
I feel the Mandarin Moron is going to squeak it out, imo on the back of Vance's appeal to undecided moderates.

Nostradamus prediction: Third time is a charm on Dump. Likely internal. Vance assumes leadership. Blee dat!
 
I feel the Mandarin Moron is going to squeak it out, imo on the back of Vance's appeal to undecided moderates.

Nostradamus prediction: Third time is a charm on Dump. Likely internal. Vance assumes leadership. Blee dat!
Yeah, thats another thing. Like, Biden might be a lot of things, but I think physically he was fairly good shape apart from just being old. Trump literally looks like he's having a heart attack at all times. This would be a long 4 years for him. Obviously I don't wish ill on him or anything, but I'd give about a 50/50 shot of Vance taking over if he wins.

Morbid bet. Biden outlives Trump regardless.
 
You don't get it lol. It was not only undecided voters who turned against Biden. It was undecided voters + part of the base. People who do not pay attention to politics 24/7 are absolutely part of the democratic and Republican base both. You're really telling me that there weren't a bunch of life long Democratic voters who were paying attention to how bad Biden had declined? Do you ever talk to regular people? Most people in general, Republican or Democrat, barely follow politics at all lmao. They aren't scouring twitter for Joe Brandon senile montages at 2am.
Yeah, you keep repeating it. I gave you the definition of base. You can ignore it if you want but that's just a fundamental gap in our communication and we can't find any common ground because of it.
 
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