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Elections What's your final prediction in who wins in the US 2024 election?

Who's going to win?

  • Donald Trump

  • Kamala Harris


Results are only viewable after voting.
People aren't acting like that. You just refuse to look at anything objectively or with nuance.

While there is some truth to what you are saying, you can just look at D's vs R's with Biden and Trump.

Biden looked senile on national TV in his debate and he got booted off the ticket. Trump sounded senile and said all sorts of crazy shit in the Kamala debate and it barely moved the needle.

You're really telling me that there is no difference between D's and R's with unwaivering support from their bases?

...and that's just one concrete example
You think he got booted off the ticket by his voting base? Nah, he got booted off by other dems in power because he couldn't win. Not because his base budged, but because independents werent gonna vote for him. How many people do you know that were in the tank for Biden, voted for him in 2020, were gonna vote from in 2024, constantly argued that he was "sharp as a tack" and then the debate happened and they said "Oh, geez. I guess I can't vote for that guy now"? How many people on this forum like Jack Savage or any other die hard dem was absolutely gonna vote for Biden, and then changed their tune after the debate? Can you name one? The answer is probably literally zero.

Yeah, Trump said crazy shit. But thats Trump. He didnt do anything new, he's always been hysterical. People know what they get with him. Biden was a different situation because the whole story was how competent he was and all the criticisms about his capability was just right wing rhetoric. Then the first half of the debate he just fumbles around and loses to a guy that literally no one should lose a debate to (although to be fair, the second half was much better for him and Trump was gassing hard).

Being a staunch base voter isn't necessarily a bad thing. Some people just prefer right or left wing policies. So these people are willing to deal with almost any amount of bullshit because they'd rather have 4 years of policy they prefer. If people just voted on who was a better person, Kamala would probably win in a landslide, but that's not what most people vote on. If someone genuinely prefers, or even all out supports a party 100% down the line it would practically take a child molestation charge to budge them...and even then.....it's a maybe.

I definitely lean right, and would prefer 4 years of Trump policy over 4 years of Kamala policy, and a lot of people think the opposite and that's fine. But I can't vote for any of these people. To be fair, since I live in California I do get the escape hatch of "No R candidate is gonna win". What I'd prefer, and I realize it's pie in the sky, is for everybody to just say "Fuck this noise" and not vote for either of the two parties until they can put up a reasonable candidate. Like I said, I know that's a fantasy.

But anyway, I don't think bases ever really budge. It isn't necessarily because they're "stupid" or biased (although theres definitely some of that, but I'd substitute ignorance for stupidity in most cases). Its just because they have policies they prefer and think 4 years of policies in their preferred direction are worth whatever bullshit they have to put up with from the candidate. It's why it seems like 99% of political discussions are never really about policy, but about how much "worse" the other person is. Ultimately nobody can take Trumps ideas and sell it to someone who wants leftist policies, and then the opposite is true that nobody can take anything Harris would do and make somebody who wants right wing policy say "Yeah, I'll take that instead of the guy who would give me a lot more of what I want". So it almost always just becomes "Look how terrible they are as a person", "look what a threat they are to the world/country/family", "Look how stupid they are".

Oh, well, what are you gonna do?
 
You think he got booted off the ticket by his voting base? Nah, he got booted off by other dems in power because he couldn't win. Not because his base budged, but because independents werent gonna vote for him. How many people do you know that were in the tank for Biden, voted for him in 2020, were gonna vote from in 2024, constantly argued that he was "sharp as a tack" and then the debate happened and they said "Oh, geez. I guess I can't vote for that guy now"? How many people on this forum like Jack Savage or any other die hard dem was absolutely gonna vote for Biden, and then changed their tune after the debate? Can you name one? The answer is probably literally zero.
Not sure what you're talking about. I think Biden was the rational choice over Trump. But when he did poorly in the debate, he lost enough support that he looked like he had a lower chance of winning. It started with voters, and then others in the party picked it up, just like the guy said. Why do you think the same hasn't happen with Trump, even though he's unable to remember the questions he's asked and rambles incoherently in response to most questions?

I definitely lean right, and would prefer 4 years of Trump policy over 4 years of Kamala policy, and a lot of people think the opposite and that's fine. But I can't vote for any of these people. To be fair, since I live in California I do get the escape hatch of "No R candidate is gonna win". What I'd prefer, and I realize it's pie in the sky, is for everybody to just say "Fuck this noise" and not vote for either of the two parties until they can put up a reasonable candidate. Like I said, I know that's a fantasy.

I think the issue is rather that partisans will never admit that the other party has put up a reasonable candidate. None of the rightists who were saying that Biden was too old and even worse off mentally than Trump are now supporting Harris, are they? They just look for some flimsy pretext to write her off too. I think that gives the whole game away.
 
There is about 40 days left, who do you think will win?

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I had Trump winning when Biden was still there and after the first assassination attempt.

Once Harris got in the picture, I had her winning this in a with a decent margin. But now I'm not sure. It's really close.

But If I had to pick and I will pick, however I'm not going to reveal it here. : - ) Let's just see what the results will be.

The Ugandan Giant Kamala
 
I hope the American people elect Kamala,
Anything can happen.
but the fact that Trump is still there after all the bullshit
Yeah, constant lawfare, 2 assassination attempts, etc etc
he pulled
as in what? the upgraded misdemeanors?
makes me think that again his support is under estimated.
its a lot of "Blue no matter who" voters jumping ship and coming over to the Trump side by default.
 
They cheated and stole 2020 and they will steal 2024 too.
A lot of fugazy shit happened in 2020 but I simply can bring myself to say this.
America is fucked. They need to stop mail in votes, have mandatory ID for voting, paper votes with custody chain, and count the votes in 24 hours.
I think there has been changes to correct this stuff. Hasn't there?
 
Last I checked on RCP Trump was ahead in the States that matter narrowly, and is polling ahead of where he was against Clinton and Biden. If the election happened today I think he egdes it out. With a month to go those numbers could change but I'd favor Trump.
 
A lot of fugazy shit happened in 2020 but I simply can bring myself to say this.

I think there has been changes to correct this stuff. Hasn't there?
As long as vote mail is prevalent and vote harvesting is legal, stuff can turn real quick, 2AM dumps….. legal.
 
Anything can happen.

Yeah, constant lawfare, 2 assassination attempts, etc etc

as in what? the upgraded misdemeanors?

its a lot of "Blue no matter who" voters jumping ship and coming over to the Trump side by default.
Putting aside your thoughts on the law, do you have no issue with supporting a candidate who committed adultery, violated campaign-finance laws, and deliberately falsified legal business documents?
 
Putting aside your thoughts on the law, do you have no issue with supporting a candidate who committed adultery, violated campaign-finance laws, and deliberately falsified legal business documents?
I highly doubt he committed adultery. And the rest of that stuff is too fugazy to define.
 
Kamala not gonna to NC is going to comeback and bite her in the ass.

god damn. that english bro.

554791.jpg
 
I highly doubt he committed adultery. And the rest of that stuff is too fugazy to define.
You doubt he committed adultery? So I'm reading from your response that you don’t have any problem with it but you're a bit ashamed to admit that.
 
You doubt he committed adultery? So I'm reading from your response that you don’t have any problem with it but you're a bit ashamed to admit that.
I have no clue what you are trying to say or how you are "reading it". It was bullshit lawfare from someone lying (or having no actual proof) from 1979.
 
I have no clue what you are trying to say or how you are "reading it". It was bullshit lawfare from someone lying (or having no actual proof) from 1979.
I understand you're pushing the ridiculous "lawfare" CT, but that's why I said forget about the law and I just asked you if you're OK with what Trump did, and you refused to answer, which is an answer itself.
 
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