Warroom election prediction thread!

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Based on what I'm seeing this is where I think the electoral map will end up.
 
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Jack V Savage said:
Is that a "no"? I guess I shouldn't expect you to ever believe what you're saying or to stand behind your words...

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It's sad that you feel gambling is the only way people can stand behind their words. Especially on something as innocuous as thinking third parties are going to get a lot of support in this election between two shitty candidates with record low approval ratings.
You should find a better outlet for your addiction than trying to stymie debate with "Bet me!"! Lol, that was how my friend settled shit in 6th grade.

Besides we already have a bet, right?
 
Anung Un Rama said:
It's sad that you feel gambling is the only way people can stand behind their words.
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Find another way, then. Be a man, for once. You won't do it because you have a habit of saying stuff for effect that you know is false.

Anung Un Rama said:
Especially on something as innocuous as thinking third parties are going to get a lot of support in this election between two shitty candidates with record low approval ratings.
You should find a better outlet for your addiction than trying to stymie debate with "Bet me!"! Lol, that was how my friend settled shit in 6th grade.
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It doesn't stymie debate at all. The point is actually to get beyond posturing. Get a solid way to settle a dispute with both people showing a commitment to their positions. It only breaks down with you because of your extreme tendency to say stuff you don't believe.

Anung Un Rama said:
Besides we already have a bet, right?
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We don't, and if we did, there would be nothing stopping us from having another one.
 
The question I had the most difficulty with is "Will the loser concede within 12 hours of the close of polls"

I'm sure Trump will lose and I tend to think anyone who loses by more than a couple points will be conceding, despite the bluster.

However, Trump is different. He appears to have a backup plan of launching an alt-right news media (entertainment) service, and if that's the case, then he is actually motivated to never concede as continued strife and continuing his anti-establishment rhetoric is the best way to launch his new network to as many eyes as possible. He will actually make money by dividing the country so that will be what he chooses to do.

So I voted no, Trump will not concede within 12 hours because his strategy has always been about more than just the election, it's always been about his brand, and his brand is now tied to 25% or so of the deplorable country who laps up conspiracy theories and entertainment disguised as news, and that's what the guy is at heart beneath everything else, a showman.
 
foxnoob said:
The question I had the most difficulty with is "Will the loser concede within 12 hours of the close of polls"

I'm sure Trump will lose and I tend to think anyone who loses by more than a couple points will be conceding, despite the bluster.

However, Trump is different. He appears to have a backup plan of launching an alt-right news media service, and if that's the case, then he is actually motivated to never concede as continued strife and continuing his anti-establishment rhetoric is the best way to launch his new network to as many eyes as possible. He will actually make money by dividing the country so that will be what he chooses to do.

So I voted no, Trump will not concede within 12 hours because his strategy has always been about more than just the election, it's always been about his brand, and his brand is now tied to 25% or so of the deplorable country who laps up conspiracy theories and entertainment disguised as news, and that's what the guy is at heart beneath everything else, a showman.
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How come you aren't posting this under your real account?
 
Anung Un Rama said:
It's sad that you feel gambling is the only way people can stand behind their words. Especially on something as innocuous as thinking third parties are going to get a lot of support in this election between two shitty candidates with record low approval ratings.
You should find a better outlet for your addiction than trying to stymie debate with "Bet me!"! Lol, that was how my friend settled shit in 6th grade.

Besides we already have a bet, right?
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Put simply the best way to discern if someone is to be taken seriously on the subject of politics is to have them make predictions and highlight the results.
 
The Higher Power said:
How come you aren't posting this under your real account?
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Of course from your perspective everyone must have multiple accounts because you have 18k+ posts and many yourself. Quit projecting insecurities bro.

Plus, stay the fuck on topic? Nothing in my post was even slightly outlandish so if you have something to add, add it. It's not my fault I don't live on here like you do bro.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Find another way, then. Be a man, for once. You won't do it because you have a habit of saying stuff for effect that you know is false.



It doesn't stymie debate at all. The point is actually to get beyond posturing. Get a solid way to settle a dispute with both people showing a commitment to their positions. It only breaks down with you because of your extreme tendency to say stuff you don't believe.



We don't, and if we did, there would be nothing stopping us from having another one.
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So you're not going to bet me re: TPP?
 
Anung Un Rama said:
So you're not going to bet me re: TPP?
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What's the bet? You said you'd think about it and come back, and you never did.

And why not offer some personal stakes on your prediction? You realize that you're claiming to believe that some that is, in fact, fantastically unlikely (easily under 1% chance) is going to happen, right? Seems pretty fishy.
 
Jack V Savage said:
What's the bet? You said you'd think about it and come back, and you never did.
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You are correct, there was some haggling to be had based on the complexity. I will post my position this Thur. We can haggle from there.

And why not offer some personal stakes on your prediction? You realize that you're claiming to believe that some that is, in fact, fantastically unlikely (easily under 1% chance) is going to happen, right? Seems pretty fishy.
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We'll have to wait and see won't we?
 
Anung Un Rama said:
You are correct, there was some haggling to be had based on the complexity. I will post my position this Thur. We can haggle from there.
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OK.

Anung Un Rama said:
We'll have to wait and see won't we?
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Sure, but we already know what the outcome will be, and it's a safe bet that you'll "forget" about even making the prediction. There's no consequence to a constant stream of bullshit without some stakes. Would you at least agree to admit you were wrong and try to speculate about where your thinking went bad? I'd be willing to do the same if you're right.
 
Jack V Savage said:
OK.



Sure, but we already know what the outcome will be, and it's a safe bet that you'll "forget" about even making the prediction. There's no consequence to a constant stream of bullshit without some stakes. Would you at least agree to admit you were wrong and try to speculate about where your thinking went bad? I'd be willing to do the same if you're right.
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Of course I will. I'm the guy who has no trouble admitting when he's wrong.
 
Here are my predictions right now. I'm bullish on Arizona due to very high Hispanic turnout, especially in Nevada, and those states track eachother reasonably well. I'm also assuming that Clinton's superior gotv organization will secure North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Florida for her.

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Clintonite-kulakist clique snatches the election. Real fun begins on wednesday.
 
Also, I would bet that the third parties have a strong showing. I would guess Stein tops out at 3% and Johnson at 5-6%
 
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