Warroom election prediction thread!

Adding a few nice tools that I have bookmarked to the thread.
http://www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/
This is a fun way to predict different paths, using a map instead of TheUpshot's trail method.

This is one of the strongest rival models to 538. Sam Wang uses a broader amount of data (he is updating using early voting info, whereas Nate is building around ongoing polling only). He also makes some pretty different assumptions on how correlated state polling error will be.
http://election.princeton.edu/

bad seed said:
the person with the highest score gets to ban one person of their choice from the War Room.
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If I win, I'm going to ban Hollywood Nicky. I've wanted to do that since I've started posting here.
 
@Quipling Awesome job making this, great idea and execution. I will fill it out tomorrow.

@Lead thanks for tagging me, I might not have taken the time to look through this if you didn't. Greatly appreciated.

Jack V Savage said:
He's going to be really wrong about third parties, but I don't think he really believes it anyway.
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Come on Jack, dont start unnecessarily.

@Gandhi There are end of year awards? I'm so hitt or miss in the war room, I don't know if Ive stuck around consistently for a full year. I should win for trying to moderate absurd JvS vs AUR derailing arguments.
 
ucunc156 said:
@Quipling Awesome job making this, great idea and execution. I will fill it out tomorrow.

@Lead thanks for tagging me, I might not have taken the time to look through this if you didn't. Greatly appreciated.


Com on Jack, dont start unnecessarily.

@Gandhi There are end of year awards? I'm so hitt or miss in the war room, I don't know if Ive stuck around consistently for a full year. I should win for trying to moderate absurd JvS vs AUR derailing arguments.
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The War Room always has something going on. It's Sherdog's best kept secret.... aside from everyone just shitting on each other 90% of the time.
 
Lead said:
The War Room always has something going on. It's Sherdog's best kept secret.... aside from everyone just shitting on each other 90% of the time.
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This and mayberry are about all i ever visit, its just that I get burned out on it at times.
 
ucunc156 said:
@Quipling Awesome job making this, great idea and execution. I will fill it out tomorrow.

@Lead thanks for tagging me, I might not have taken the time to look through this if you didn't. Greatly appreciated.


Come on Jack, dont start unnecessarily.

@Gandhi There are end of year awards? I'm so hitt or miss in the war room, I don't know if Ive stuck around consistently for a full year. I should win for trying to moderate absurd JvS vs AUR derailing arguments.
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Unc for fence up his ass award 2016. :)
 
ucunc156 said:
This and mayberry are about all i ever visit, its just that I get burned out on it at times.
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Yea. I swear there is a natural cycle with this site where you do the heavies for a couple years, then explore mayberry and then ultimately one of the other sub forums where you are doomed to stay the rest of your stay here.

Also, sources tell me some yugge is coming after the election here. Reliable sources.
 
Lead said:
Yea. I swear there is a natural cycle with this site where you do the heavies for a couple years, then explore mayberry and then ultimately one of the other sub forums where you are doomed to stay the rest of your stay here.

Also, sources tell me some yugge is coming after the election here. Reliable sources.
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I wonder if the war room will crash in the same way the heavies crashed when fedor lost?
 
ucunc156 said:
I wonder if the war room will crash in the same way the heavies crashed when fedor lost?
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I don't think it's possible to every get the traffic Kimbo and Fedor's loss got. Those were epic days on here. I actually wish they could make the front end of a subforum seem like the main forum. So people could come in thinking it politics and just be confused why people all also like MMA.
 
Lead said:
I don't think it's possible to every get the traffic Kimbo and Fedor's loss got. Those were epic days on here. I actually wish they could make the front end of a subforum seem like the main forum. So people could come in thinking it politics and just be confused why people all also like MMA.
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the meltdown with the fedor loss was the greatest thing i've ever witnessed on this site. Posters with years under their belt were melting down and getting trolled by white belts. I was a Silva guy so I just sat there watching the madness.
 
ucunc156 said:
the meltdown with the fedor loss was the greatest thing i've ever witnessed on this site. Posters with years under their belt were melting down and getting trolled by white belts. I was a Silva guy so I just sat there watching the madness.
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There were a ton of fanbases that just had no understanding of their fighter being mortal. I check in the heavies every once in awhile and realize I've been out of it for far too long cause 90% of it looks ridiculous. Everyone is too dramatic.
 
ucunc156 said:
Whats that even mean?!
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I was kidding that you are sitting on the fence between the jvs/anung arguments. Either way we are now both in the running for worst sense of humor
2016.
 
I shouldn't have made my picks before the FBI news broke :(

lol
 
I've got @Gandhi & @ucunc156 in a dead heat for best sense of humor in the WR. Leaning toward uc, but I'll have to wait for the weigh-ins to see if Gandhi has that look in his eye.

And I do believe third party will get 5% ea.
I haven't been following the data too closely of this election (which is why I'm not filling out the form; I don't have a strong opinion on most of the questions), so I don't know if that is a huge stretch; last I saw Stein was at 2% and Johnson was at 6?
 
I've need studying the polls and trends, and this isn't a prediction but stating a fact that the polls are tightest in Florida and North Carolina. If he doesn't win both of them, it's over.

The polls for Pennsylvania have been cock teases ever since 1988. Due to the obvious election fraud that some precincts didn't record a single vote for McCain or Romney, it's safe to say that's going to Hillary. Same with Nevada.

Same with Virginia, it's just barely considered a battleground state but Hillary has been winning in every poll by four or five points at least, with the exception of one poll on Nov2nd that had Trump up by three points, but had a four point margin of error.

Wisconsin and Michigan is the same as Virginia, just barely considered battleground states. Go to Hillary.

Colorado is an interesting case because of the lack of polling. Hillary had a double-digit lead two months ago and pulled out all resources from the state, until rushing back in a few weeks ago when the margin closed. As of a poll on Saturday, they're tied.

Give me a minute and I'll tally up the electoral votes.
 
rR4ceME.jpg


This is a very good site, by the way, to post graphics of your predictions.

I'm pretty confident in my picks, but I can't call either New Hampshire or Colorado. But it may come all the way down to those two states, both of whom Hillary has the probability of winning.

If Hillary wins either of them, she wins.

Trump has to win BOTH to be the next President.

The odds aren't in his favor, unless somehow he's able to flip Pennsylvania to make up for both NH and CO going to Hillary.

Oh, and I've seen polling data that says Virginia is in play, but I doubt it. It's practically a DC suburb.

I'll post tomorrow if there's any updated polls to warrant making a change.

But, once again, Trump has to win Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio (which I'm confident he will win Ohio) or else it's a guaranteed Hillary Presidency.
 
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If I tagged you below, you've participated in a debate thread in some fashion, and I am inviting you to submit your election predictions to this link. Sorry if you've been tagged before!
****Submit predictions here***
****Submit predictions here***
****Submit predictions here***
24 hours left!
 
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