By JASMINE C. LEE, ANNIE DANIEL, REBECCA LIEBERMAN, BLACKI MIGLIOZZI and ALEXANDER BURNSUPDATED JAN. 2, 2020
Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and analysis to track how the 14 Democratic presidential candidates are doing and who is breaking out of the pack in the historic race for the 2020 nomination.
Jump to: Overview Polls Campaign Money News Coverage
Current State of the Race
Qualified for the January debate*
NATIONAL POLLING AVERAGE
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS†
WEEKLY NEWS COVERAGE
Joseph R. Biden Jr.
27% $37.6m #1
Bernie Sanders
19% $61.5m #4
Elizabeth Warren
16% $49.8m #2
Pete Buttigieg
9% $51.5m #3
Michael R. Bloomberg
5% — #5
Amy Klobuchar
4% $13.9m #9
Andrew Yang
3% $15.1m #8
Cory Booker
2% $15.5m #6
Tulsi Gabbard
1% $6.5m #10
Tom Steyer
< 1% $2.0m #7
+ View all candidates
*
Meets polling and donor thresholds set by the Democratic National Committee.
† Campaign finance data through Sept. 30.
Arrows show recent changes in value or rank.
Here’s the latest.
Dec. 20, 2019
The Democratic presidential primary is entering the holiday lull in a fluid but familiar state: Joseph R. Biden Jr. is still the leading candidate. His national poll numbers are still flat. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are still his nearest competitors, with Pete Buttigieg as a threat in the early states.
But the race is far from stagnant. There have been two important developments in the national polls this month. Mr. Sanders has overtaken Ms. Warren as the second-place candidate in the race, rising by a modest but meaningful margin over the last few weeks. And Michael R. Bloomberg has quickly reached the mid-single digits
after entering the race before Thanksgiving, with an abrupt rise that may have interrupted Mr. Buttigieg’s momentum.
The
sixth Democratic debate on Dec. 19 could soon register in the polls. Amy Klobuchar, who has been making a persistent effort to break through in Iowa, delivered her most forceful performance yet,
challenging Mr. Buttigieg over his electoral track record and qualifications for the presidency. And clashes between both Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Warren, and also Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders, had the potential to ripple.
But polling tends to go quiet over the holidays, so it may take some time for us to get a fully updated picture of the race.
With the start of the new year, we are likely to get a pile of new data to inform our analysis — not just from polls, but also from the candidates’ fund-raising reports once the fourth quarter closes on Dec. 31.
Those numbers will reveal whether the
strongest fund-raisers in the third quarter of the year — Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg — have extended their dominance, and whether Mr. Biden has revived what was, at the time, a
flagging financial operation. Candidates like Ms. Klobuchar, Andrew Yang and Cory Booker will also show whether they have assembled enough money to sustain their candidacies.
Of course, the financial contours of the race have changed since Mr. Bloomberg’s announcement. He has poured tens of millions of dollars from his personal fortune into
television and digital advertising, threatening to overpower the other candidates across the map of Super Tuesday states where he is focusing his efforts. But it remains to be seen whether Mr. Bloomberg can build on his early gains or whether his surprise entry and heavy spending have given him something of a temporary bump.
— Alexander Burns
Data through Dec. 19
Who Is Leading the Polls?
National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. That’s even truer in a primary that will unfold in stages, with one or several states voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important, offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.
Candidate polling average
Individual polls shown on hover
Jan. 2019Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.10%20%30%BidenBiden27%27%WarrenWarren16%16%CastroCastroDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTHarrisHarrisDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTBullockBullockDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTSestakSestakDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTO’RourkeO’RourkeDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTMessamMessamDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTRyanRyanDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTde Blasiode BlasioDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTGillibrandGillibrandDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTInsleeInsleeDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTMoultonMoultonDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTHickenlooperHickenlooperDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTSwalwellSwalwellDROPPED OUTDROPPED OUTPatrickPatrick< 1%< 1%WilliamsonWilliamson< 1%< 1%DelaneyDelaney< 1%< 1%BennetBennet< 1%< 1%SteyerSteyer< 1%< 1%GabbardGabbard1%1%BookerBooker2%2%YangYang3%3%KlobucharKlobuchar4%4%BloombergBloomberg5%5%ButtigiegButtigieg9%9%SandersSanders19%19%
Latest National Polls
POLLSTER DATE BIDEN SANDERS WARREN BUTTIGIEG BLOOMBERG
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Dec. 14-17 28 21 18 9 4
CNN/SSRS Dec. 12-15 26 20 16 8 5
Quinnipiac Dec. 11-15 30 16 17 9 7
USA Today/Suffolk Dec. 10-14 23 14 13 8 6
NPR Dec. 9-11 24 22 17 13 4
The New York Times polling averages use pollsters approved by the D.N.C. for debate inclusion requirements. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages. Data is for registered voters or likely voters, depending on the poll. See the full list of D.N.C.-approved pollsters
here.
Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.
On Dec. 20 in previous election cycles ...
PRIMARY POLLING LEADER EVENTUAL NOMINEE?
2016 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2016 Republicans Donald J. Trump
2012 Republicans Newt Gingrich
2008 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2008 Republicans Rudy Giuliani
Source: RealClearPolitics
We are keeping an eye on state-level polling, too, especially in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.
Latest Polls in Early Voting States
S.C.NOV. 13-17 IowaNOV. 8-13 N.H.NOV. 6-13 Nev.NOV. 6-13
Joseph R. Biden Jr.
33 15 22 33
Bernie Sanders
11 15 20 23
Elizabeth Warren
13 16 31 21
Pete Buttigieg
6 25 16 9
Michael R. Bloomberg
— 2 — —
Amy Klobuchar
1 6 3 2
Andrew Yang
4 3 1 1
Cory Booker
2 3 1 2
Tulsi Gabbard
1 3 0 0
Tom Steyer
5 3 1 2
+ View all candidates
Sources: Quinnipiac (
South Carolina poll), Des Moines Register/CNN (
Iowa poll), CBS News/YouGov (
New Hampshire,
Nevada polls)
Data through Sept. 30
Who Is Leading the Money Race?
Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidates’ ability to compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small increments from millions of people online.
These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a larger army of supporters. We only get an occasional glimpse at these numbers, however, since candidates file fund-raising reports on a quarterly basis.
See full fundraising numbers here »
CONTRIBUTIONS,
JULY-SEPT.
CONTRIBUTIONS,
APRIL-JUNE
Bernie Sanders
$25.2m
$18.0m
Elizabeth Warren
$24.6m
$19.2m
Pete Buttigieg
$19.1m
$24.9m
Joseph R. Biden Jr.
$15.7m
$22.0m
Andrew Yang
$9.9m
$2.8m
Cory Booker
$6.0m
$4.5m
Amy Klobuchar
$4.8m
$3.9m
Marianne Williamson
$3.1m
$1.5m
Tulsi Gabbard
$3.0m
$1.6m
Michael Bennet
$2.1m
$2.8m
+ View all candidates
Source: Federal Election Commission ·Candidates in the chart without donation numbers joined the race after the financial disclosure reporting deadline. Current numbers are as of Sept. 30. The next filing deadline is Jan. 31.
Data through Dec. 18
Who Is Getting News Coverage?
A candidate’s ability to make news and draw the attention of voters — and cameras — is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.
Being talked about isn’t always a good thing: It can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past.
Total Mentions in 2019
CNN
FOX NEWS
MSNBC
Joseph R. Biden Jr.
67,933
Elizabeth Warren
25,877
Bernie Sanders
24,360
Pete Buttigieg
9,263
Cory Booker
7,543
Amy Klobuchar
3,670
Michael R. Bloomberg
2,715
Tom Steyer
2,206
Tulsi Gabbard
2,069
Andrew Yang
1,568
+ View all candidates
Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via the GDELT Project. ·Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidate’s full name is mentioned on any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found
here.