WAR ROOM LOUNGE V18: HAPE ...... (it means high-altitude pulmonary edema, you sicko)

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Jack V Savage said:
It's a bluff because he's scared.
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Is this self-delusion or just empty posturing?

I clearly stated I wasn't ready to take the bet yet. Therefore it can't have been a "bluff" under any normal definition of that term.
 
This might be the manliest weekend of the rest of the year with all the good college ball and fights going down tonight. I'm feeling a spike in my T levels
 
At Bookmaker, I'm getting $10k limits on the main card (20k main event) and $5k all the way down to the 1st prelim.

At Pinnacle, $40k limit on main event, $5k main card, $3k prelims.

Christmas has come early! Thank Conor. Conor bless. I will never criticize that man again.
 
waiguoren said:
At Bookmaker, I'm getting $10k limits on the main card (20k main event) and $5k all the way down to the 1st prelim.

At Pinnacle, $40k limit on main event, $5k main card, $3k prelims.

Christmas has come early! Thank Conor. Conor bless. I will never criticize that man again.
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Post your bets
 
waiguoren said:
At Bookmaker, I'm getting $10k limits on the main card (20k main event) and $5k all the way down to the 1st prelim.

At Pinnacle, $40k limit on main event, $5k main card, $3k prelims.

Christmas has come early! Thank Conor. Conor bless. I will never criticize that man again.
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Somebody wants to ask you a question...
waiguoren said:
Is this self-delusion or just empty posturing?
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Lead said:
Why not?
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Because it's my profession and I have a specific strategy that I don't want others to replicate.

Never seen such amazing limits on a UFC event. Mayweather-McGregor (boxing) had amazing limits for the main event but I don't follow boxing so didn't pay attention to the undercard. I lost about $28k that night, by the way. Expected Mayweather by DEC and put my money where my mouth was. That's my biggest single night loss to date.

Edit: just checked and my loss that night was only $22290. I've probably had worse nights than that.
 
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Lead said:
Why not?
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I just ran the numbers, and according to Kelly Criterion, (and this is pushing the upper end, with a high risk of ruin) the action he's claiming would require - given an EXTREMELY generous estimate of 60% chance of winning at 33/20 odds - a dedicated gambling bankroll of about $175,000.

If you actually apply the criterion conservatively, as one should, and estimate your chances of winning that 33/20 bet at around 50% (this means it's still, by a lot, Christmas coming early), a dedicated gambling bankroll of about $300,000 is required.

I know you're a numbers guy so I thought you would appreciate teh anals cyst. You know, to help evaluate anonymous message board claims.
 
Lead said:
I didn't know that was your career. Makes sense.
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It's a terrible choice for almost everyone. So, usual disclaimer: most (maybe 90%) of people who try it break even at best. Many get killed.
 
Fawlty said:
I just ran the numbers, and according to Kelly Criterion, (and this is pushing the upper end, with a high risk of ruin) the action he's claiming would require - given an EXTREMELY generous estimate of 60% chance of winning at 33/20 odds - a dedicated gambling bankroll of about $175,000.

If you actually apply the criterion conservatively, as one should, and estimate your chances of winning that 33/20 bet at around 50% (this means it's still, by a lot, Christmas coming early), a dedicated gambling bankroll of about $300,000 is required.

I know you're a numbers guy so I thought you would appreciate teh anals cyst. You know, to help evaluate anonymous message board claims.
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I could offer you a screenshot of my Bookmaker balance, which is more than half of my BR.

Actually, I'd rather offer it to @Lead since I don't trust you to keep it private.
 
Fawlty said:
I just ran the numbers, and according to Kelly Criterion, (and this is pushing the upper end, with a high risk of ruin) the action he's claiming would require - given an EXTREMELY generous estimate of 60% chance of winning at 33/20 odds - a dedicated gambling bankroll of about $175,000.

If you actually apply the criterion conservatively, as one should, and estimate your chances of winning that 33/20 bet at around 50% (this means it's still, by a lot, Christmas coming early), a dedicated gambling bankroll of about $300,000 is required.

I know you're a numbers guy so I thought you would appreciate teh anals cyst. You know, to help evaluate anonymous message board claims.
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Yea, I don't really understand the ins and outs of that industry but good read
 
Fawlty said:
I'm sure you could offer all sorts of sketchy things.
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I've noticed that you and that @Limbo Pete use this type of passive-aggressive communication style with great frequency.

Serious question: did you grow up with a father in the home?

My father went away to jail when I was nine, so I was overly influenced by my mother. But having nine years with my father plus a lot of time with my grandfather has helped me to man up.
 
Lead said:
Yea, I don't really understand the ins and outs of that industry but good read
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It's pretty simple, just a way of putting numbers to the relationship between bet size and your risk of ruin, according to the odds of any particular wager. There are optimal bets for aggressive and conservative strategies. What I wrote was for a very aggressive (optimal Kelly) strategy. More conservative strategies would require even higher bankrolls.
 
waiguoren said:
I've noticed that you and that @Limbo Pete use this type of passive-aggressive communication style with great frequency.

Serious question: did you grow up with a father in the home?

My father went away to jail when I was nine, so I was overly influenced by my mother. But having nine years with my father plus a lot of time with my grandfather has helped me to man up.
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My daddy told me the best way to man up was to post the betting slip
 
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