Social War Room Lounge Thread #325: PotWR Edition

[Limbo Pete]

You’ve not presented a single coherent, relevant or intelligent point in this entire conversation. You’ve ignored all of my points and questions.

Your entire basis of argument is “not uh!”.

You swing from one wild extreme to the next, and consistently fail to grasp the very basic questions and points I've brought up
Seriously, as a living billboard for your AI overlords... the marketing could use some work.

 

[Andy Capp]

Consensus being what though? I think it’s a big mistake to just assume that’s a good estimate even from people close to it, as they are very financially motivated to keep buzz going about the potential and are just overall more optimistic as it may be their life’s work. People are being more dismissive of your certainty on timelines for something that isn’t here yet.

I think Islam mentioned something similar but innovation is very hard to estimate. There’s a joke with Nuclear Fusion that it’s just ten years away, even after ten years passed. How long have we heard over promised timelines from guys like Musk on mars and such. And for the thing you are looking at, I think it deserves even more skepticism in believing we know when and if. Like I refrain from just saying nah because on a long enough timeline, a lot is possible.

Indeed, well said.

Disclaimer: I haven't read this, but the title seems apropos to your comment.

 

[AWilder]

Also since you’re a total asshat and haven’t answered any of my questions, what is something taught in traditional k-12 education that isn’t available digitally?

Art, humor, social situations, humanity, empathy, how to treat people, companionship.

 

[AWilder]

Carpentry, masonry, welding, pipefitting, surgery. I can go on

 

[MeatheadMike]

Certainly. I think my frustration here, evidenced by the confirmation biases of people liking your posts, is that people don’t believe that ASI will happen. It’s inconceivable to them.

The industry consensus is that we achieve AGI in the 2030s. If it’s even 2045 that’s still extremely close in general timeframes for such a monumental creation.

If that’s within 15 years, why is everyone so happy to remain ignorant of the ramifications of ASI?

People who see “well LLMs aren’t AGI and won’t be” take it as AGI and ASI aren’t going to happen because look how many mistakes LLMs make right now.

The point I’m making is, AGI and ASI is coming. Consensus is within 15 years. How do we prepare for that inevitably?

I appreciate your input here as opposed to other ignorant cynics who just like to play opposite despite knowing nothing about the subject matter.

I’d also say your position was the general majority position but it is now very much the minority view on the matter.

There isn't really an industry consensus on what AGI is, let alone when it will happen. The ones predicting the fastest timelines (Musk, Altman, Hassabis) also seem to be the ones that benefit financially from drumming up hype around AI.

That said, I think your point is valid, and it would make sense for governments to prepare regardless. Universal Basic income would be a great start imo, but its considered a far-left position, even among Democrats. Right now we can't even get Universal healthcare. Unfortunately, the people who would be paying for those things won't allow them to happen unless its absolutely neccessary, and possibly too late.

 

[Limbo Pete]

Art, humor, social situations, humanity, empathy, how to treat people, companionship.

That's a trap though. He's going to wave his hand and say you can get that (even if you cant) with "digital learning", when the actual issue here is AI. A human teacher running an online class is challenging enough, but plopping your kid down in front of a Musk bot and calling it education is obviously a cancer on the world

 

[AWilder]

That's a trap though. He's going to wave his hand and say you can get that (even if you cant) with "digital learning", when the actual issue here is AI. A human teacher running an online class is challenging enough, but plopping your kid down in front of a Musk bot and calling it education is obviously a cancer on the world

Yeah I know he's just being a dumb troll as usual,.it's just funny that he can't think of a single thing where AI learning isn't going to work. Maybe he should ask AI?

Also funny that he's either using AI to write his posts or he has begun to post like AI

 

[Mr Holmes]

Which episode of Black Mirror are we on?

 

[Limbo Pete]

Yeah I know he's just being a dumb troll as usual,.it's just funny that he can't think of a single thing where AI learning isn't going to work. Maybe he should ask AI?

Also funny that he's either using AI to write his posts or he has begun to post like AI

AI is like crack for the incompetent

 

[Rob Battisti]

Art, humor, social situations, humanity, empathy, how to treat people, companionship.

Carpentry, masonry, welding, pipefitting, surgery. I can go on

You learn masonry in traditional k-12 education? Surgery?

There isn't really an industry consensus on what AGI is, let alone when it will happen. The ones predicting the fastest timelines (Musk, Altman, Hassabis) also seem to be the ones that benefit financially from drumming up hype around AI.

That said, I think your point is valid, and it would make sense for governments to prepare regardless. Universal Basic income would be a great start imo, but its considered a far-left position, even among Democrats. Right now we can't even get Universal healthcare. Unfortunately, the people who would be paying for those things won't allow them to happen unless its absolutely neccessary, and possibly too late.

The industry surveys do point to consensus on timelines being in the 2030s. I’m a proponent of UBI being absolutely necessary in the future.

That's a trap though. He's going to wave his hand and say you can get that (even if you cant) with "digital learning", when the actual issue here is AI. A human teacher running an online class is challenging enough, but plopping your kid down in front of a Musk bot and calling it education is obviously a cancer on the world

I never said “digital learning”. You literally ignored my lengthy post on non-traditional education and instead are agreeing that masonry is taught in traditional k-12.

Yeah I know he's just being a dumb troll as usual,.it's just funny that he can't think of a single thing where AI learning isn't going to work. Maybe he should ask AI?

Also funny that he's either using AI to write his posts or he has begun to post like AI

I’m the troll when you’re saying that traditional education which hasn’t changed in 50 years for to prepare students for the future world on which ASI will be present? I’m the troll when you’re saying that K-12 traditional education teaches empathy and pipefitting?

I showed what non-traditional education looks like and it was completely ignored. Instead you blindly think that your pal is making some grand point.

Sigh

 

[Limbo Pete]

I never said “digital learning”

Hmmmm....

what is something taught in traditional k-12 education that isn’t available digitally?

 

[Islam Imamate]

Certainly. I think my frustration here, evidenced by the confirmation biases of people liking your posts, is that people don’t believe that ASI will happen. It’s inconceivable to them.

The industry consensus is that we achieve AGI in the 2030s. If it’s even 2045 that’s still extremely close in general timeframes for such a monumental creation.

If that’s within 15 years, why is everyone so happy to remain ignorant of the ramifications of ASI?

People who see “well LLMs aren’t AGI and won’t be” take it as AGI and ASI aren’t going to happen because look how many mistakes LLMs make right now.

The point I’m making is, AGI and ASI is coming. Consensus is within 15 years. How do we prepare for that inevitably?

I appreciate your input here as opposed to other ignorant cynics who just like to play opposite despite knowing nothing about the subject matter.

I’d also say your position was the general majority position but it is now very much the minority view on the matter.

What happened is you made a bold claim and acted incredulous that any one would disagree, reflexively accusing others of contrarianism. But then it turned out no one else was buying it.

For the record I'm not saying AGI is impossible or even that the timeframe you outlined there is impossible, just that I think overheated expectations fueled by investors and others with a stake in the industry is leading to overly optimistic predictions given the narrow use cases for the current tech.

 

[Limbo Pete]

What happened is you made a bold claim and acted incredulous that any one would disagree, reflexively accusing others of contrarianism. But then it turned out no one else was buying it.

For the record I'm not saying AGI is impossible or even that the timeframe you outlined there is impossible, just that I think overheated expectations fueled by investors and others with a stake in the industry is leading to overly optimistic predictions given the narrow use cases for the current tech.

He's got the same flavor of "I'm the REAL smart guy" insecurity/hubris thing that you find in CTers

 

[Rob Battisti]

Hmmmm....

Yes because you claimed that there was knowledge that wasn’t digitized. Doofus.

 

[Rob Battisti]

What happened is you made a bold claim and acted incredulous that any one would disagree, reflexively accusing others of contrarianism. But then it turned out no one else was buying it.

For the record I'm not saying AGI is impossible or even that the timeframe you outlined there is impossible, just that I think overheated expectations fueled by investors and others with a stake in the industry is leading to overly optimistic predictions given the narrow use cases for the current tech.

Because the ass making “disagreements” said nothing serious and who’s only addition was “not uh”.

 

[Islam Imamate]

Which episode of Black Mirror are we on?

Rob arguing for the Skynet AI

 

[Islam Imamate]

Because the ass making “disagreements” said nothing serious and who’s only addition was “not uh”.

You said I was being stupid and contrarian for disagreeing as well even though I think my disagreement was perfectly fair. Even Mr Holmes and I agree here and we agree on very little it seems so I don't think it's fair to say I was being contrarian

 

[Limbo Pete]

Yes because you claimed that there was knowledge that wasn’t digitized. Doofus.

Which of course there is. A whole lot of it lmao. But tell me you've never done original research without telling me you've never done original research. Just riding the lazy ass cheater train straight to brain dead city.

 

[AWilder]

You learn masonry in traditional k-12 education? Surgery?

The industry surveys do point to consensus on timelines being in the 2030s. I’m a proponent of UBI being absolutely necessary in the future.

I never said “digital learning”. You literally ignored my lengthy post on non-traditional education and instead are agreeing that masonry is taught in traditional k-12.

I’m the troll when you’re saying that traditional education which hasn’t changed in 50 years for to prepare students for the future world on which ASI will be present? I’m the troll when you’re saying that K-12 traditional education teaches empathy and pipefitting?

I showed what non-traditional education looks like and it was completely ignored. Instead you blindly think that your pal is making some grand point.

Sigh

A couple of tiktoks and some AI slop copy pasta isn't going to persuade me that these tech Bros have completely changed education. That it has you convinced says a lot about you. Education has changed since I was a kid. It's not static but it doesn't move like tech breakthroughs.

 

[Rob Battisti]

A couple of tiktoks and some AI slop copy pasta isn't going to persuade me that these tech Bros have completely changed education. That it has you convinced says a lot about you. Education has changed since I was a kid. It's not static but it doesn't move like tech breakthroughs.

LOL now I can’t even write without being accused of something. You guys are insane. THATS THE WHOLE POINT. It can have a breakthrough.

Tell me how it’s changed in the last 20 years?