Social War Room Lounge Thread #325: PotWR Edition

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Limbo Pete said:
Is the problem here that you're one of those guys who thinks the internet "contains all human knowledge"?
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Are you one of those people that ignores questions/topics and then tries to get someone to answer your questions? That’s rhetorical.

The amount of data that exists which isn’t digital is so minuscule compared to the amount of data that is digital as to be completely irrelevant.

Of course, you understand this but you’re just working to be cynical.

The ASI won’t immediately be able to read analog books, but the amount of digital data compared to non-digital means that this is besides the point.

The ASI won’t be able to read minds either so that makes it useless?
 
Rob Battisti said:
Are you one of those people that ignores questions/topics and then tries to get someone to answer your questions? That’s rhetorical.

The amount of data that exists which isn’t digital is so minuscule compared to the amount of data that is digital as to be completely irrelevant.

Of course, you understand this but you’re just working to be cynical.

The ASI won’t immediately be able to read analog books, but the amount of digital data compared to non-digital means that this is besides the point.

The ASI won’t be able to read minds either so that makes it useless?
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Digital information is... how old?
 
Limbo Pete said:
Digital information is... how old?
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What does that have to do with anything? You think that we didn’t digitize things prior to the invention of the means to do so?

It’s estimated there are 100 zettabytes of data that is digital versus .05 that aren’t. That’s a 2000x multiplier.

The amount of non-digital information is so minuscule comparatively that it makes it functionally irrelevant to ASI’s knowledge base.
 
Rob Battisti said:
so your arguing that AGI is impossible or further out?

Agentic progress is what will bring about progress to AGI irrespective of any diminishing returns on LLM power. By then even “good enough” LLMs become powerful when wrapped in memory, feedback loops, environment interaction, and self-improvement.

In other words, agency turns static intelligence into dynamic intelligence. That is why AGI can emerge even if base LLM scaling slows.
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I think AGI and ASI are possible, but achieving them will require entirely new breakthroughs which have nothing to do with LLMs. These could happen within the next 10 years or next 100, and at this point there is no way to accurately predict when is most plausible.

We probably wouldn't be having this conversation at all if not for the breakthrough with LLMs that happened 2-3 years ago. But despite them being called as "AI" and giving the illusion of intelligence, they are not really AI, and even as they improve/progress, it does not look like they ever will be on their own. I do think, as you mentioned before, that LLMs could become a key component of true AI. But I see them as just one piece in the puzzle.
 
MeatheadMike said:
I think AGI and ASI are possible, but achieving them will require entirely new breakthroughs which have nothing to do with LLMs. These could happen within the next 10 years or next 100, and at this point there is no way to accurately predict when is most plausible.

We probably wouldn't be having this conversation at all if not for the breakthrough with LLMs that happened 2-3 years ago. But despite them being called as "AI" and giving the illusion of intelligence, they are not really AI, and even as they improve/progress, it does not look like they ever will be on their own. I do think, as you mentioned before, that LLMs could become a key component of true AI. But I see them as just one piece in the puzzle.
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Certainly. I think my frustration here, evidenced by the confirmation biases of people liking your posts, is that people don’t believe that ASI will happen. It’s inconceivable to them.

The industry consensus is that we achieve AGI in the 2030s. If it’s even 2045 that’s still extremely close in general timeframes for such a monumental creation.

If that’s within 15 years, why is everyone so happy to remain ignorant of the ramifications of ASI?

People who see “well LLMs aren’t AGI and won’t be” take it as AGI and ASI aren’t going to happen because look how many mistakes LLMs make right now.

The point I’m making is, AGI and ASI is coming. Consensus is within 15 years. How do we prepare for that inevitably?

I appreciate your input here as opposed to other ignorant cynics who just like to play opposite despite knowing nothing about the subject matter.

I’d also say your position was the general majority position but it is now very much the minority view on the matter.
 
@Rob Battisti just in case your own lack of imagination and critical thinking are to blame for, well, The Nonsense, I'd encourage you to stop and consider that the vast, vast bulk of human achievement was done pre-internet will non digital information. Additionally, even now, people constantly work with and generate physical objects. And even setting that aside, not all digital information is just sitting on the internet where anyone can cart it off.
 
Limbo Pete said:
@Rob Battisti just in case your own lack of imagination and critical thinking are to blame for, well, The Nonsense, I'd encourage you to stop and consider that the vast, vast bulk of human achievement was done pre-internet will non digital information. Additionally, even now, people constantly work with and generate physical objects. And even setting that aside, not all digital information is just sitting on the internet where anyone can cart it off.
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I’ve already displayed to you that the amount of information that is digital is 2000x than information that is non-digital as to make the non-digital information irrelevant to ASI.

This is what I mean, you have smart conversation about what still be necessary to bring about ASI and then you have idiots like @Limbo Pete who think ASI is some fantasy.
 
Rob Battisti said:
Certainly. I think my frustration here, evidenced by the confirmation biases of people liking your posts, is that people don’t believe that ASI will happen. It’s inconceivable to them.

The industry consensus is that we achieve AGI in the 2030s. If it’s even 2045 that’s still extremely close in general timeframes for such a monumental creation.

If that’s within 15 years, why is everyone so happy to remain ignorant of the ramifications of ASI?

People who see “well LLMs aren’t AGI and won’t be” take it as AGI and ASI aren’t going to happen because look how many mistakes LLMs make right now.

The point I’m making is, AGI and ASI is coming. Consensus is within 15 years. How do we prepare for that inevitably?

I appreciate your input here as opposed to other ignorant cynics who just like to play opposite despite knowing nothing about the subject matter.

I’d also say your position was the general majority position but it is now very much the minority view on the matter.
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Consensus being what though? I think it’s a big mistake to just assume that’s a good estimate even from people close to it, as they are very financially motivated to keep buzz going about the potential and are just overall more optimistic as it may be their life’s work. People are being more dismissive of your certainty on timelines for something that isn’t here yet.

I think Islam mentioned something similar but innovation is very hard to estimate. There’s a joke with Nuclear Fusion that it’s just ten years away, even after ten years passed. How long have we heard over promised timelines from guys like Musk on mars and such. And for the thing you are looking at, I think it deserves even more skepticism in believing we know when and if. Like I refrain from just saying nah because on a long enough timeline, a lot is possible.
 
Rob Battisti said:
I’ve already displayed to you that the amount of information that is digital is 2000x than information that is non-digital as to make the non-digital information irrelevant to ASI.

This is what I mean, you have smart conversation about what still be necessary to bring about ASI and then you have idiots like @Limbo Pete who think ASI is some fantasy.
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You didn't display anything other than your own swollen, red baboon ass lol
You don't have any explanation for how AI will collect non digital information - because it can't- so you pretend it isn't important... despite most human knowledge pre-esisting and not being available on the internet (let alone searchable)
 
Limbo Pete said:
You didn't display anything other than your own swollen, red baboon ass lol
You don't have any explanation for how AI will collect non digital information - because it can't- so you pretend it isn't important... despite most human knowledge pre-esisting and not being available on the internet (let alone searchable)
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You think that the majority of human knowledge hasn’t been digitized despite me showing you that there is 2000x more digital information than non-digital information?

You think ASI isn’t possible because we haven’t scanned the encyclopedia brittanica from 1912?
 
Also since you’re a total asshat and haven’t answered any of my questions, what is something taught in traditional k-12 education that isn’t available digitally?
 
Rob Battisti said:
You think that the majority of human knowledge hasn’t been digitized despite me showing you that there is 2000x more digital information than non-digital information?

You think ASI isn’t possible because we haven’t scanned the encyclopedia brittanica from 1912?
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The majority of human information has not been digitized lol you've clearly never set foot in an actual archive, or even taken 2 seconds to think this through. My recommendation is to stop outsourcing your thoughts to chatbot. It's lazy, and you learn nothing. Incidentally, we create more and more digital stuff every second, sure, but that's entirely beside the point. And even then, not all "information" is created equal. But I'm sure the Great Groktopus will see Sherdog forum posts as a gold mine for imitating humanity.
 
Limbo Pete said:
The majority of human information has not been digitized lol you've clearly never set foot in an actual archive, or even taken 2 seconds to think this through. My recommendation is to stop outsourcing your thoughts to chatbot. It's lazy, and you learn nothing. Incidentally, we create more and more digital stuff every second, sure, but that's entirely beside the point. And even then, not all "information" is created equal. But I'm sure the Great Groktopus will see Sherdog forum posts as a gold mine for imitating humanity.
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Wild to think such stupid people as you exist.

“ASI will never work because there are analog books!”
 
Rob Battisti said:
Also since you’re a total asshat and haven’t answered any of my questions, what is something taught in traditional k-12 education that isn’t available digitally?
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You're doing the thing again lol
Saying AI is going to make "traditional education" irrelevant or obsolete is very different than, say, criticizing the efficacy of online classes.
 
Limbo Pete said:
You're doing the thing again lol
Saying AI is going to make "traditional education" irrelevant or obsolete is very different than, say, criticizing the efficacy of online classes.
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Were you dropped on your head as a child?
 
Limbo Pete said:
You've hit the level below panic wrestling. Incredulous flopping, that's what this is. Like a landed trout.
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You’ve not presented a single coherent, relevant or intelligent point in this entire conversation. You’ve ignored all of my points and questions.

Your entire basis of argument is “not uh!”.
 
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