You are being intentionally obtuse.
He said :
- Umar better striker than Merab
- Umar comparable grappler to Merab
- Nurmagomedov name/aura/fans (similar to how the public always overbets the Cowboys, etc)
You can dismiss all of these. You can disagree with all of these. But you're just acting like a clown if you pretend he didn't put anything forth. How does "better striker" not impact the odds of an MMA fight? That's exactly what he pointed out. Be serious.
For my money, you don't do what Merab did to Cejudo and Yan and not be the favorite against Umar. Yan is a great striker w/ competent grappling. Cejudo is an olympic wrestler w/ KO power. Umar may not be better on the feet than Yan and he may not be better on the mat than Cejudo and Merab embarassed those guys. No way I'd bet on Umar as a favorite. Now, at +250, it would be worth a gamble.