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!!! Wall of text incoming !!!
Another busy week. Unfortunately I haven't been able to participate this event either. Alot of value on this card, but I have always had a rough time with the brazil cards. Always something about these events and the hometown advantage With that being said, I hate that I have so many leans I want to follow. I will be pretty heavy on this one, but I have to follow my gut.
Alot of good discussion has been going on, so will just sum up my own thoughts/leans briefly.
Chagas vs. Silva
After the line flip you simply have to take a stab at that Silva ml line. Not too confident in it, but with his shape this time around and him focusing on cardio you can't avoid it. Silva has faced better competition all around, and should be the better all around fighter. Chagas is a young beast that have potential to be "prospect worthy". To me it looks like Chagas get too much credit here because of his record and Silvas biggest mistake/fail last time around. If Silva doesn't get too ahead of himself here, he could win this by taking it easy and not chasing the stoppage. He usually find himself in trouble when he overcommit and loses balance because of that. That combined with the go go go stoppage mindset will almost always end in a defeat when he fight opponents at his own level and higher. That being said, I still think that Silvas game is a couple of levels higher than Chagas. He just has to showcase it here.
1u Silva SU @ +140
I really do think that Silva is going to try and fight a smart fight, and because of that I had to take a little stab at:
Silva DEC @ +600
Patrick vs. Ray
I see alot of dog potential this event and one that could easily come through (brazil gonna brazil) is Patrick by DEC. The fight has already been breaking down, but the most important thing should be if Patrick is able to TD Ray. If it stays standing I wouldn't be surprised to see Patrick steal a win because of flashy techniques (that probably will miss) and volume combined with the crowd going wild everytime he throws something. Ray is a long way from home for the very first time, fighting another southpaw for the very first time. He has been improving his overall striking and TD defence, but I could easily see him give away the first round before he adjust to the fight.
Everybody already know that you really have to BEAT a brazil fighter in brazil if you want the judges to be on your side. IMO Ray really has to perform to finish Patrick here and I just don't see it happening if Patrick put out the TD threat early. The TD threat alone could be enough to make Ray hesitate and commit with his striking, so I imagine his output could be lower as well.
Not enough value on Patrick's ML, but I have to take a stab at his DEC line. This is really the only way I see him winning this anyway.
1u Patrick DEC @ +250
Franca vs. Gregor
Not too much insight on this one, so I will keep it short. Both fighters will probably cancel out each others sub attacks, and I think this will be a grapling/wrestling heavy fight only because of Gregors impressive wrestling background. Alot has been said about his last fights, but he's a beast with good cardio. He trains with Bermudez and has the better (on paper) wrestling background. He needed this UFC debut and even though Franca is a tough matchup, I see him pulling through. Franca was gassing in the Vick fight, and he'll probably gas faster in this one when he has to defend and wrestle from the get go. Franca will win this if he keep the fight at a distance and uses his reach, but I just think Gregors tenacity and control on the fence will be too much for Franca.
It's hard to win a decision in brazil against a brazilian, but I don't see Gregor winning any other way. Franca has the skillset to avoid getting stopped here, and the judges has to give a dec to Gregor when he control him all three rounds on the ground.
Therefore:
0.75u Gregor DEC @ +403
I have been rambling too much already but damn there is some value to get on those dec lines - Perhaps a nice Round Robin with some of those. I will still end up betting on alot more, but then it will be a much bigger wall of text than it already are.
Parlay lean:
Trinaldo/Felder O2.5
Pepey NO SC
Cyborg R1
Round Robin:
Trinaldo -3,5 @ +210 (They love him, crowd will go crazy and could easily see one of the judges giving the 30-27)
Formiga DEC @ +125 (Only path to victory for either of these guys)
Patrick/Ray O2.5 @ 1.741
Santos/Spicely Wont start R2 @ -136 (5 minutes is a lot of time for Santos to put Spicely away)
Another busy week. Unfortunately I haven't been able to participate this event either. Alot of value on this card, but I have always had a rough time with the brazil cards. Always something about these events and the hometown advantage With that being said, I hate that I have so many leans I want to follow. I will be pretty heavy on this one, but I have to follow my gut.
Alot of good discussion has been going on, so will just sum up my own thoughts/leans briefly.
Chagas vs. Silva
After the line flip you simply have to take a stab at that Silva ml line. Not too confident in it, but with his shape this time around and him focusing on cardio you can't avoid it. Silva has faced better competition all around, and should be the better all around fighter. Chagas is a young beast that have potential to be "prospect worthy". To me it looks like Chagas get too much credit here because of his record and Silvas biggest mistake/fail last time around. If Silva doesn't get too ahead of himself here, he could win this by taking it easy and not chasing the stoppage. He usually find himself in trouble when he overcommit and loses balance because of that. That combined with the go go go stoppage mindset will almost always end in a defeat when he fight opponents at his own level and higher. That being said, I still think that Silvas game is a couple of levels higher than Chagas. He just has to showcase it here.
1u Silva SU @ +140
I really do think that Silva is going to try and fight a smart fight, and because of that I had to take a little stab at:
Silva DEC @ +600
Patrick vs. Ray
I see alot of dog potential this event and one that could easily come through (brazil gonna brazil) is Patrick by DEC. The fight has already been breaking down, but the most important thing should be if Patrick is able to TD Ray. If it stays standing I wouldn't be surprised to see Patrick steal a win because of flashy techniques (that probably will miss) and volume combined with the crowd going wild everytime he throws something. Ray is a long way from home for the very first time, fighting another southpaw for the very first time. He has been improving his overall striking and TD defence, but I could easily see him give away the first round before he adjust to the fight.
Everybody already know that you really have to BEAT a brazil fighter in brazil if you want the judges to be on your side. IMO Ray really has to perform to finish Patrick here and I just don't see it happening if Patrick put out the TD threat early. The TD threat alone could be enough to make Ray hesitate and commit with his striking, so I imagine his output could be lower as well.
Not enough value on Patrick's ML, but I have to take a stab at his DEC line. This is really the only way I see him winning this anyway.
1u Patrick DEC @ +250
Franca vs. Gregor
Not too much insight on this one, so I will keep it short. Both fighters will probably cancel out each others sub attacks, and I think this will be a grapling/wrestling heavy fight only because of Gregors impressive wrestling background. Alot has been said about his last fights, but he's a beast with good cardio. He trains with Bermudez and has the better (on paper) wrestling background. He needed this UFC debut and even though Franca is a tough matchup, I see him pulling through. Franca was gassing in the Vick fight, and he'll probably gas faster in this one when he has to defend and wrestle from the get go. Franca will win this if he keep the fight at a distance and uses his reach, but I just think Gregors tenacity and control on the fence will be too much for Franca.
It's hard to win a decision in brazil against a brazilian, but I don't see Gregor winning any other way. Franca has the skillset to avoid getting stopped here, and the judges has to give a dec to Gregor when he control him all three rounds on the ground.
Therefore:
0.75u Gregor DEC @ +403
I have been rambling too much already but damn there is some value to get on those dec lines - Perhaps a nice Round Robin with some of those. I will still end up betting on alot more, but then it will be a much bigger wall of text than it already are.
Parlay lean:
Trinaldo/Felder O2.5
Pepey NO SC
Cyborg R1
Round Robin:
Trinaldo -3,5 @ +210 (They love him, crowd will go crazy and could easily see one of the judges giving the 30-27)
Formiga DEC @ +125 (Only path to victory for either of these guys)
Patrick/Ray O2.5 @ 1.741
Santos/Spicely Wont start R2 @ -136 (5 minutes is a lot of time for Santos to put Spicely away)