UFN 90 - RDA vs Alvarez - Las Vegas

[Joseph Budden]

Anyone have any thoughts on Reginaldo vs Beltran and Doane vs Munhoz?

Hoping to catch Reginaldo at a better price. Beltran is slowly but surely making improvements under AKA, but I have a tough time seeing him outwrestle Reginaldo or get the better of the striking. Vieira will be too good at playing a game of being too far away from Beltran, and then exploding in the pocket to land punches when the opportunity presents itself.

Need to rewatch Doane fights, so really have no clear thoughts on this one other than I like Munhoz as a prospect. Had a hell of a scrap with Rivera who is a great fighter, and before that it was thought striking was Munhoz's striking was his worst aspect.

 

[Sham5916910]

JB, why are you on Burns?

 

[edole]

Anyone have any thoughts on Reginaldo vs Beltran and Doane vs Munhoz?

Hoping to catch Reginaldo at a better price. Beltran is slowly but surely making improvements under AKA, but I have a tough time seeing him outwrestle Reginaldo or get the better of the striking. Vieira will be too good at playing a game of being too far away from Beltran, and then exploding in the pocket to land punches when the opportunity presents itself.

Need to rewatch Doane fights, so really have no clear thoughts on this one other than I like Munhoz as a prospect. Had a hell of a scrap with Rivera who is a great fighter, and before that it was thought striking was Munhoz's striking was his worst aspect.

Doane is scrappy and aggressive -- little bit raw, but I like him.

He lost a verryyy close decision to luri Alcantara and another close decision to jerrod sanders. Munhoz should be a little better everywhere. I like the over 2.5 in this fight but I'm concerned about the potential for a Munhoz guillotine early.

I don't think I am as high on Vieira as you. I kind of like the over here as well, but again, Vieira has a very strong guillotine.

 

[Joseph Budden]

JB, why are you on Burns?

I don't see what Sajewski could do here. You hit the nail on the head, hes always been a grappler, thats how hes comfortable fighting. And now hes faced with someone who is much better at grappling. On the feet it would appear to be even, but Burns has some intangibles such as going 15 with one of the best strikers in the division in his last outing and training under Henri Hooft for quite some time now.

I could see this being scrappy for maybe the first round, but ultimately I think Burns either gets the sub or just outclasses Sajewski. Even if Sajewski can defend some takedowns, hes not threatening enough on the feet to decisively win there or keep Burns from continuously attacking his hips.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I'm on Burns too. He's getting a bit pricey though but I think he wins this just based on the fact that I think Lukasz gets trumped in his grappling strengths by Burns superior BJJ. I still don't know a lot about Saj though so I'm tempering my plays a bit til I can find some value with prop plays.

As far as PEDRO Munhoz goes, love the guy's game. He's super aggressive with great subs and great striking but the one thing about him that kind've sucks is that he probably has the worst reach of any 135er in the division. Which I can see why he's always pressuring guys because he's always at a disadvantage. Doane is very respectable and is well rounded everywhere. I expect Munhoz to win but I'd like his price to drop just a wee bit before I play him.

Both aforementioned are close to being 2:1 favorites so unless the juice reduces, they're not stellar plays but I'm picking both guys to respectively win their bouts.

 

[EzFlyer]

^^ i really like munhoz and doane. wish they were fighting other guys. i wouldn't lay near 2:1 on munhoz here. dude has a lot of close fights. doane isn't totally outclassed anywhere here.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I laid the juice on Munhoz at 190. I love his style, he's so well rounded, think he's better than Doane everywhere. Took a pretty big L on him vs Rivera but we've seen Rivera's fucking legit and he arguably won that fight anyway iirc. Doane is good but Munhoz will win this on the feet or on the ground, imo. Just a higher quality of fighter at this point imo.

I also like Arantes but couldn't pull the trigger on his line. Want to see if that drops a bit. Was willing to hit Munhoz but not Arantes at similar prices. Also on Big Country but at -140 so not the best price so that's it for now. trying to pick my spots a little more conservatively than usual, especially considering the marathon we've got going.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I think the Baghdad/Makdessi fight is very cut and dry. By that I mean there will be no surprises in that fight and they're gonna fight how you expect them to fight. You basically get what you see.

The only intangible is whether Mak decides to clinch and attempt TDs (for the sake of MMA) in this fight if he's ordered to by his corner because Mehdi is a 1 dimensional fighter. I think Mak has it in his repertoire and he's facing a guy who in a rare case, he's probably better in that respect.

Mehdi is a Muay Thai fighter but doesn't look like he's got MMA style footwork. He plants his feet a lot and likes to go shot for shot and I don't see Mak doing that with him. Mak tho, always has his faults for being such a small guy at LW so he always has to overcome that aspect and I hate betting on him as a favorite for that reason but I think he wins via superior movement.

Not sure if a finish materializes either way yet. Either way though, Mak is juiced so it's not really a fight on my crosshairs I'm just analyzing it.

 

[Ballsaque]

I think the Baghdad/Makdessi fight is very cut and dry. By that I mean there will be no surprises in that fight and they're gonna fight how you expect them to fight. You basically get what you see.

The only intangible is whether Mak decides to clinch and attempt TDs (for the sake of MMA) in this fight if he's ordered to by his corner because Mehdi is a 1 dimensional fighter. I think Mak has it in his repertoire and he's facing a guy who in a rare case, he's probably better in that respect.

Mehdi is a Muay Thai fighter but doesn't look like he's got MMA style footwork. He plants his feet a lot and likes to go shot for shot and I don't see Mak doing that with him. Mak tho, always has his faults for being such a small guy at LW so he always has to overcome that aspect and I hate betting on him as a favorite for that reason but I think he wins via superior movement.

Not sure if a finish materializes either way yet. Either way though, Mak is juiced so it's not really a fight on my crosshairs I'm just analyzing it.

It's an interesting fight, as Makdessis angles, superior jab and activity no doubt makes him the better striker, but Bagdad makes for a lot of the things that has troubled Makdessi before, being much longer and having powerful good legkicks, which tear up Makdessis taekwondo style stance, and he seems to not want to check kicks ever either, though the stance makes it much more difficult it should at least be attempted.
I think Makdessis better variety, speed should win him the day in the end, especially if he mixes in some takedowns, but Makdessi can be so hot and cold.

Wouldnt bet either side right now, Bagdad will start having value at some point though.

 

[Sham5916910]

Fuck Whill have limited me only let me put £250 on Duffy + Burns. Will leave that parlay at that and use Duffy for a big parlay with someone else from one of the other five cards in July.

1k on Nelson @ -140.

This cards great for lb. Tough fights to predict so i expect a lot of dogs to come through. Only three fighters above -250.

 

[Sham5916910]

Is this card on BT? If its fp only lb will be restricted to main card i assume except for pp and unibet.

 

[edole]

Fuck Whill have limited me only let me put £250 on Duffy + Burns. Will leave that parlay at that and use Duffy for a big parlay with someone else from one of the other five cards in July.

1k on Nelson @ -140.

damn -- care to elaborate on your Nelson confidence?

This is why I'm unsure, and slightly leaning BB:

I don't think Roy has had a good win in over 3 years when he KO'd Cheick Kongo. A KO win over big Nog in 2014 does not impress me and winning a decision over Jared Rosholt might even impress me less. I am also concerned about Roy's mileage -- not necessarily his chin. He always seems to be referencing injuries and wear and tear on his knees/hands/etc.

I think BB is much more athletic and explosive at this point. He is also 9 years younger, will have 3 inches of height, and 7 inches of reach on Roy.

I was also impressed by his TDD against Gonzaga and the fact that when he was taken down and put directly into side control, he was able to work back to his feet.

Interested to hear your thoughts on the matchup.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

It's an interesting fight, as Makdessis angles, superior jab and activity no doubt makes him the better striker, but Bagdad makes for a lot of the things that has troubled Makdessi before, being much longer and having powerful good legkicks, which tear up Makdessis taekwondo style stance, and he seems to not want to check kicks ever either, though the stance makes it much more difficult it should at least be attempted.
I think Makdessis better variety, speed should win him the day in the end, especially if he mixes in some takedowns, but Makdessi can be so hot and cold.

Wouldnt bet either side right now, Bagdad will start having value at some point though.

On paper, it's almost favorable for Mehdi that he gets a guy who won't drown him in TDs.

Mehdi has good combinations against stationary guys or people who move in a straight line so I don't think Mak has that issue. He's also got some deadly elbows up close so that's something to watch.

While it's true that Mak leaves his lead leg out ripe for leg kicks, I think his excellent use of his jab counter-strikes a lot of what people try to land on it. I think also because he likes to spin as well.

Makdessi's IQ is on the hot seat here. A guy like Mehdi is easily exploitable but it's up to him and Tristar to execute.

I'm still not touching the fight I'll wait for props for some low ante degen action.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I know Makdessi's had a fight since the jaw injury agains Cerrone but I still wonder how that'll affect him if he takes a few solid shots to that area in the future. Jaw injuries are probably the second worst nightmare for fighters otter than eye injuries and that can take a toll physically but also mentally. Haven't really looked into the fight much but even though he had that fight against Yancy where most agree he should've won iirc, I still think it's something to consider here. This isn't a broken nose or something. Homeboy had to have his jaw wired shut. Nobody wants this shit in their face.

 

[kenCs]

Is RDA/Alvarez finishing ITD really that expensive.

RDA dec is +300 and Alvarez dec is +650. For a fight I expect to go the distance 8/10 thats really generous.

Alvarez TKO/KO is +1000 and his sub line is +1600. Holy shit, this is off.

 

[kenCs]

Lewis/Nelson fight finishing round3/decision is +225. Aswell as the fight going the distance at +350. Lewis decision at +1200 holy fuck. Nelson dec line is +600. I really think this fight goes the distance.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Is RDA/Alvarez finishing ITD really that expensive.

RDA dec is +300 and Alvarez dec is +650. For a fight I expect to go the distance 8/10 thats really generous.

Alvarez TKO/KO is +1000 and his sub line is +1600. Holy shit, this is off.

Agreed. Think RDA finishing Cowboy so fast has altered these lines more than it should've.

I know Makdessi's had a fight since the jaw injury agains Cerrone but I still wonder how that'll affect him if he takes a few solid shots to that area in the future. Jaw injuries are probably the second worst nightmare for fighters otter than eye injuries and that can take a toll physically but also mentally. Haven't really looked into the fight much but even though he had that fight against Yancy where most agree he should've won iirc, I still think it's something to consider here. This isn't a broken nose or something. Homeboy had to have his jaw wired shut. Nobody wants this shit in their face.

This picture makes me more queezy than pics of staph infections.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

There are 3 cards that week.

I'm leaning towards the strategy of finding the best dogs to play. It would be nice to parlay some favorites but I don't wanna miss the opportunity for a big payday so I'm gonna try and rob Las Vegas with my ski mask.

I'll still parlay a couple favorites to try and cover my potential losses but I don't expect to parlay a bunch of favorites as a means to make a medial profit.

Plus, I'm spending 5 days in Vegas, and I rented out a pent house I'm going to live this shit up. I'ma call this one #TheGrandHustle #Summer16'

Good luck to everyone and I hope the just bleed gods reign down upon us

 

[Sham5916910]

damn -- care to elaborate on your Nelson confidence?

This is why I'm unsure, and slightly leaning BB:

I don't think Roy has had a good win in over 3 years when he KO'd Cheick Kongo. A KO win over big Nog in 2014 does not impress me and winning a decision over Jared Rosholt might even impress me less. I am also concerned about Roy's mileage -- not necessarily his chin. He always seems to be referencing injuries and wear and tear on his knees/hands/etc.

I think BB is much more athletic and explosive at this point. He is also 9 years younger, will have 3 inches of height, and 7 inches of reach on Roy.

I was also impressed by his TDD against Gonzaga and the fact that when he was taken down and put directly into side control, he was able to work back to his feet.

Interested to hear your thoughts on the matchup.

Actually that was a typo i have £1400 on Roy lol to win 1k. I feel a little uneasy about it will hedge some with BB dec but fortune favours the brave!

I see where you're going re Roy's wins but Rosholt isnt a bad fighter just boring. Look at who Roys fought tho BB has not fought anyone near the level of Miocic, JDS, Reem, Barnett, etc. Roy has always struggled against the top 10 and always beaten anyone outside.

I dont normally bet on HWs but i trust in Roy's chin and do not think highly of BB. He was starched by Jordan and Mitrione. He has beaten low calibre fighters. His best win is Gonzaga but Gonzaga is a serious flake so i dont hold that win in high regard in 2016. BB is showing improvements but he was nearly kneebarred by Ruan Potts and then taken down and controlled for a short time. Sorry but if you are any good Potts should be having no success against you! BB is not particularly good on his feet his style is to take you down and gnp. Gonzaga is the only person he has stopped in the UFC standing. He wont be able to take Roy down, BB is not going to stop Roy standing and if Mitrione and Jordan can stop you standing you're damn sure Roy can. BB throws a lunging left hook and massively telegraphed right hand his stand up is pretty poor and he has low output.

You reference his tdd as being good against Gonz but go watch his other fights his tdd is horrible. He tends to rely on his heavy hips doesnt use fundamentals. You are correct about him being very good at getting back to his feet. This point is irrelevent tho Roy wont want to take BB down.

I think BB dec +1200 is absolutely mental tho. He does have good cardio for such a big man. But i dont think BB can implement his normal strategy here and Roy wont be as cautious like he was against Rosholt as he wont be so worried about the takedown.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

^ I actually like Roy's chances of winning better if it gets there.

We saw D1 Roy against Barnett he was able to put him on his back a couple times. He also just came off a camp against Rosholt the wrestler so he's been grappling as of late. Also let us not forget, Roy's favorite move back when he liked to grapple was to get the dreaded HW crucifix.

Plus the fact that there is no way in hell that BB will be able to hold Roy down for extensive periods of time on the clock to win that type of scenario. So that leaves BB being able to rough up Roy for 15 minutes standing.