UFN 88 - Las Vegas - Almeida vs Garbrandt - 5/29/16

[AgentSmecker]

Just watched the Picket fight and man did Almeida eat a ridiculous amount of shots. I mean Picket ain't too shabby but he doesn't usually catch his opponents anywhere near as much as that. Most of the fights I've watched him in he whiffs a hell of a lot more punches than he lands but vs Almeida he was tagging him a lot. A bit concerning but the only fight I've watched of Garbrandt was the Brimage one and it was a fairly competitive fight until the finish right at the end and Brimage ain't all that so I'm still glad I went with Almeida.

 

[mmaday4day]

Almeida reminds be a bit of Erick Silva. Very talented and explosive with his striking and BJJ, but leaves openings to be hit hard when he gets too wild.

Yeah, but Almeida has better cardio & better chin and also showed that he can take a beating and still manage to win in spectacular fashion.

 

[EzFlyer]

Camozzi/Miranda ov2.5 -170, not crazy about laying the juice but think that hits more times than not. Camozzi is notoriously durable and Miranda isn't really a sub threat. might think about stabbing at Camozzi or Camozzi +3.5 -105. Like the over and +3.5 personally.

Took a stab at Camozzi rd3 +2725. Really like that price.

ya know.. the fact that camozzi never has been ko'd... that +3.5 -105 really isn't too bad.

 

[Ukram]

Almedia is the rightful favourite especially with that killer instinct and 20-0 unbeaten record, he was dubbed one of the best prospects in the world, especially unsigned by ufc.

But boy did he get tagged by pickett, brads got good boxing so has cody with his amateur boxing background, its hard to predict the fight since cody has racked up similar combos to put guys down (brimage) and we know brad had success there the issue being is almedia is just as deadly with his combos (body shots) and then uppercuts, he also has that style of clipping guys making them duck followed by his excellent knees, and those are just the ones not flying in mid air.

I still reckon by r4/r5 we may see a finish, someones going to slow down and that one strike will make a difference.

Regarding almedia cardio, I felt cody may have an advantage but almedia has good cardio in r4 even see here:



has a bjpenn moment, almedia don't quit that is for sure.

 

[weedreference]

How so..?

Vastly more technical and diverse striker with really good TDD.

 

[mmaday4day]

Vastly more technical and diverse striker with really good TDD.

Correct. But he also has 0 KO power and his chin might be a little bit suspect. Story is a really good pressure fighter with good cardio and a durable chin. He also has punching power, unlike Saffiedine.
Saffiedine may eke out a split decision, but I like Story's chances better.

 

[Agent Mulder]

0.1u Felder r3 + Masvidal dec + Barao dec +14500

 

[weedreference]

Correct. But he also has 0 KO power and his chin might be a little bit suspect. Story is a really good pressure fighter with good cardio and a durable chin. He also has punching power, unlike Saffiedine.
Saffiedine may eke out a split decision, but I like Story's chances better.

If I had bet solely on technical strikers vs. sprawl and brawlers in my entire betting career, I would have a far higher ROI and a lot less stress

That said, yes, you have a point and this spot isn't the best. We'll see what happens, but I am still liking Saff.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Just watched the Picket fight and man did Almeida eat a ridiculous amount of shots. I mean Picket ain't too shabby but he doesn't usually catch his opponents anywhere near as much as that. Most of the fights I've watched him in he whiffs a hell of a lot more punches than he lands but vs Almeida he was tagging him a lot. A bit concerning but the only fight I've watched of Garbrandt was the Brimage one and it was a fairly competitive fight until the finish right at the end and Brimage ain't all that so I'm still glad I went with Almeida.

Honestly Im not impressed with either guy.

Almeida gets hit A LOT and Cody is not the beast he think (or at least says) he is.

Almeida seems to have better killer instinct but he also got punched A LOT against mid tier BW old Brad Pickett.

Im going with Cody. Specially at + odds. Cheering for Almeida tho.

 

[waiguoren]

Surprised to see so many on Eye. McMann seems like a bad matchup for her.

 

[iGnP]

i think if you guys ignore the Briones fight for a minute, a lot of you would have a much more positive opinion of Garbrandt

 

[Ukram]

briones is a pretty tough fighter, 16-5 record and well rounded, he was also undefeated since 2011 apart from a draw, reckon cody did well in that fight.

Codys a decent dog, but reckon plenty of excellent dogs including kotch, masvidal, story should be awesome for live betting

 

[Sham5916910]

i think if you guys ignore the Briones fight for a minute, a lot of you would have a much more positive opinion of Garbrandt

Think you hit the nail on the head. But seeing a ko loss on codys amateur record does worry me a little

 

[LEMONZEST]

what would miranda do to riggs, tho... not sure how much to take away from the camozzi-riggs fight, honestly, (at least from camozzi's side)

Yeah not saying Camozzi wins or anything more just responding to what someone said upthread about Camozzi getting finished ITD.

Sure Camozzi can get finished ITD but I don't expect that outcome. In fact I could see Camozzi squeaking out a close dec.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Just watched the Picket fight and man did Almeida eat a ridiculous amount of shots. I mean Picket ain't too shabby but he doesn't usually catch his opponents anywhere near as much as that. Most of the fights I've watched him in he whiffs a hell of a lot more punches than he lands but vs Almeida he was tagging him a lot. A bit concerning but the only fight I've watched of Garbrandt was the Brimage one and it was a fairly competitive fight until the finish right at the end and Brimage ain't all that so I'm still glad I went with Almeida.

I don't like saying fighters are lucky but I think Almeida getting the finish so quick v. PIckett was a bit lucky. A flying knee to connect clean like that and finish a fight is low percentage. Credit to Almeida for coming back and winning but if that shot didn't connect it would have been a long fight. To me the Pickett fight puts a big question mark behind Almeida in that maybe his boxing and defense is not that great.

It reminds me a bit of Erick Silva who came in with all this hype and would just steam roll guys. Now that we have seen Erick vs. technical strikers he doesn't look that good. I am not sure if Cody is the guy to do it but I am kinda looking to fade Almeida ...

 

[LEMONZEST]

Surprised to see so many on Eye. McMann seems like a bad matchup for her.

Odds aside - at even money I like McMann to win. I am not really impressed with Eye so far and I think she is pretty weak mentally. McMann is tough and can grapple and make this a hard fight for Eye who I think more just wants to strike.

 

[EzFlyer]

Yeah not saying Camozzi wins or anything more just responding to what someone said upthread about Camozzi getting finished ITD.

Sure Camozzi can get finished ITD but I don't expect that outcome. In fact I could see Camozzi squeaking out a close dec.

yea, NOT miranda ITD -200 isn't actually that bad. like it has been said.. camozzi has never been ko'd. miranda hasn't shown much of a submission game.

no one should be SHOCKED if miranda pulls off a headkick KO or something.. you eat one of those flush, you're going out... but generally speaking i think this is going to be a miranda decision quite a lot of the time (like you said, tho, camozzi could make it close)

 

[Johnbmma1]

Odds aside - at even money I like McMann to win. I am not really impressed with Eye so far and I think she is pretty weak mentally. McMann is tough and can grapple and make this a hard fight for Eye who I think more just wants to strike.

Just some insider info for you, I would totally bet Mcmann if it wasn't for the experience I had with her visiting my gym. Her ground honestly is not that great when it comes to BJJ, and what worries me is that she had a bit of a 'know it all' mentality'..

 

[null]

Some point spreads and no scorecards bets I like and bet yesterday. I'm a bit worried about the Jessica Eye decison bet because she simply might get out wrestled and lose here but the odds were decent. But I think Caraway will be competitive with Aljo, Lorenz has a much better chance of stopping Gamebred with strikes than vice versa, and Stephens with his size and striking will hopefully beat Barao outright or win a round if not.

Jeremy Stephens +3½ points (-155) vs Renan Barao $155.00 for $100.00
Lorenz Larkin scorecards = no action (-147) vs Jorge Masvidal $147.00 for $100.00
Jessica Eye wins by 3 round decision (+302) vs Sara McMann $35.00 for $105.70
Bryan Caraway +3½ points (+165) vs Aljamain Sterling $100.00 for $165.00

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I don't know what to make of the Miranda/Camozzi line but I think Miranda will will win but I don't like the current price for it there is no value on the 37 year old.

Being that Camozzi is a southpaw, isn't one of the best weapons against one a RHKick? And Miranda has got a killer head kick. It's his speciality.

But fact is, no one's caught Camozzi yet and he's only ever been subbed.

Miranda is apparently a BJJ brown belt I wouldn't put it past him to drill some chokes before this fight if he's capable of dropping Chris.

But back to my point, there is shit value on this fight.