UFN 88 - Las Vegas - Almeida vs Garbrandt - 5/29/16

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Oblivian said:
I'd be very surprised to see Almeida/Garbrandt go the distance, but that's hard to say after Manhoef/Carvalho.
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it's +400, but i think it's more likely than that. maybe 30-33%.
 
I'd put it quite a bit lower than that honestly. Almeida is just so aggressive and has only been to decision once. In the fight he went to decision in, it was against a grinder and that fight looked like it was going to be stopped a few times.

Personally, I think a lot of people think Garbrandt is a lot more passive than he is based off of his Briones fight. I think this conversation came up with some prior to his fight with Mendes who he KOed quick. My guess is Almeida can get Garbrandt emotional and both will start throwing at some point.
 
Oblivian said:
I'd put it quite a bit lower than that honestly. Almeida is just so aggressive and has only been to decision once. In the fight he went to decision in, it was against a grinder and that fight looked like it was going to be stopped a few times.

Personally, I think a lot of people think Garbrandt is a lot more passive than he is based off of his Briones fight. I think this conversation came up with some prior to his fight with Mendes who he KOed quick. My guess is Almeida can get Garbrandt emotional and both will start throwing at some point.
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I doubt that Almeida will be as aggressive as we've seen in the past. It will be way harder for him to find his range here. Garbrandt moves in and out very quickly. Im expecting a low volume rd1 but we'll see.
 
If people see this fight going long, the value is definitely in Garbrandt. Almeida's best asset is his killer instinct and finishing ability. Besides that, he's not that great defensively, isn't a great volume striker, and we've seen him give up quite a few takedowns. If this becomes a lower volume striking match, Garbrandt will likely win it.

I just don't see it going that way at all. You have two guys with a combined # of 28 fights and 2 decisions, neither being a 5 rounder. Garbrandt is a hot head who can willingly get in exchanges after he gets tagged.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Ladbrokes has props up. You with them or banned?
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You know I just logged in and its ok they blocked me due to me using VPNs with multiple ips and did not understand that I watch sporting events around the world with a vpn !

Yeah interesting props my BR is with bet365 mainly will see, betfair look good they had live betting on the main card but not prelims though for parlays they should be great though and hopefully as the word goes no restrictions or capping with any luck.
 
How do you differentiate between betting on their sportsbook and exchange?
 
Wow, I literally just bet Almeida/Garb o1.5 at -150 last night and it is already at -190.

The o2.0 is still +106, fyi
 
sup guys, I see the mcman/eye line tightening, might be a good time to bet jessica eye if you can still get a good price. Bit early to tell but I think it will get closer to evens at fight time.

Sham5916910 said:
How do you differentiate between betting on their sportsbook and exchange?
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think it takes you right to the sportsbook, either way once you login you should see a sportsbook or exchange tab in the top left depending on which one your already on just click on it and all the markets will be for that version. I'm assuming your going to the sportsbook as the exchange is usually empty for mma bets unless it's a big fight or a couple days before the start that being said the liquidity available has started to increase lately which is a great sign for us and others ITT. Much better prices when there is money there generally speaking.
 
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At first I felt no way does cody/almedia go the distance especially with both guys records and high ko ratio but after watching both guys last 3 fights....as hot headed and cocky cody is he has shown he can back up or recover when required, not allowing opponents to get a combo or more damage going, cody has even secured some nicely timed take downs when in trouble or when required.

With 2 big undefeated prospects they could just cancel each other out making the overs hit, but I do feel in deep waters, cody will be better he tends to reserve cardio or recoup a bit especially after a heavy round where as almedia is just a relentless killer always.

Will be keeping an eye out on r4/r5 cody ko lines if cody survives, but also cody decision lines.
 
Eye Dec +302?

Collier or uda dec +350ish?
Or both guys dec +145?

Trujillo itd -124?

Campbell Dec +220?
 
Basically everything having to do with Almeida/Garb overs/dec have been hammered today. Good thing I got in early. I'd get in now before they got any worse. Cody DEC +650 is still a pretty nice line.

And wow. Felder SUB all the way down to +765 from +1205 last night
 
Jae Gibbz said:
Wow, I literally just bet Almeida/Garb o1.5 at -150 last night and it is already at -190.

The o2.0 is still +106, fyi
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Jae Gibbz said:
Basically everything having to do with Almeida/Garb overs/dec have been hammered today. Good thing I got in early. I'd get in now before they got any worse. Cody DEC +650 is still a pretty nice line.

And wow. Felder SUB all the way down to +765 from +1205 last night
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fuck! even that is -124 now.

me and my big mouth! didn't bet anything yet besides goes 5, damnit!

o1.5 is still -175 on bol
 
EzFlyer said:
fuck! even that is -124 now.

me and my big mouth! didn't bet anything yet besides goes 5, damnit!

o1.5 is still -175 on bol
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I have o1.5 -150, o2.0 +106, Fight DEC +400, and Garb DEC +865.

I'm honestly kinda heavy on the latter 2... lol
 
EzFlyer said:
i still like it, you don't think much value? i did it to win 1u
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It's just that since the over was set at 1.5, I was hoping for something like +325. Koch is a ? mark at the moment, too. Passing for now
 
Jae Gibbz said:
It's just that since the over was set at 1.5, I was hoping for something like +325. Koch is a ? mark at the moment, too. Passing for now
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good points

sidenote: eye dec dropped 100 pts already!
 
story-saffiedine ML is back up on BM.. story +110.. not sure if that'll last w/the saff injury reports
 
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