UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

[Jordan3399]

PVZ backers, she is also coming off a broken arm..for all her toughness I wonder if Ostovich catches that arm, will it be more likely she taps now because of it, probably unlikely she gets an arm, I think if any sub attempt by Ostovich it'll be a RNC but I believe she wins on the feet and the ground. I'm taking her ITD and ML. Also watched Lipski for the first time, WAWAWEEWA! I think she's gonna smoke Calderwood, probably gonna take her ITD and probably 1st round.

She broke her a forearm bone. Thats not really impacted at all by an armbar attempt which is attacking the elbow joint.

Don't see Ostovich pulling off MMAs first forearm slicer either

 

[matthew55]

She broke her a forearm bone. Thats not really impacted at all by an arm bar attempt which is attacking the elbow joint.

Don't see Ostovich pulling off MMAs first forearm slicer either lol

I was moreso speaking mentally, but I think there's definitely some stress on that bone as well, ask Tim Sylvia

 

[Jordan3399]

I was moreso speaking mentally, but I think there's definitely some stress on that bone as well, ask Tim Sylvia

Her mental toughness should be fine she's remarkably tough given her image.

As for stuff like what happened to Tim Sylvia thats rare as hell and took a combination of a heavyweight size top grappler like Mir and Sylvia partially stacking so Mirs hip was on his forearm and then also rotating 90 degrees to a normal armbar. I wouldn't consider it a remotely likely outcome with 2 mediocre grapplers literally half the size of Mir and Sylvia.

 

[Austisthunder]

I was moreso speaking mentally, but I think there's definitely some stress on that bone as well, ask Tim Sylvia

Would u also be concerned about ostovich mentally after she just got her orbital bone broke a couple months ago

 

[matthew55]

Would u also be concerned about ostovich mentally after she just got her orbital bone broke a couple months ago

Sure but I don't think that correlates much to what I was saying. I was talking about a specific situation if Ostovich gets that PVZ's arm.

 

[matthew55]

Her mental toughness should be fine she's remarkably tough given her image.

As for stuff like what happened to Tim Sylvia thats rare as hell and took a combination of a heavyweight size top grappler like Mir and Sylvia partially stacking so Mirs hip was on his forearm and then also rotating 90 degrees to a normal armbar. I wouldn't consider it a remotely likely outcome with 2 mediocre grapplers literally half the size of Mir and Sylvia.

I'm not speaking about her overall mental toughness, I've said already I know how tough she is, I was speaking of a specific situation in which she grabs ahold of that arm, if PVZ would be willing to let Ostovich stretch the shit out of it like Rose did to her

 

[Vir_Ars]

I dont get from where is coming all that confidence in Lipski, I saw their championship fight and that sucks, was hard to see, just another staring contest. I dont see nothing special about that girl.

 

[Jordan3399]

I'm not speaking about her overall mental toughness, I've said already I know how tough she is, I was speaking of a specific situation in which she grabs ahold of that arm, if PVZ would be willing to let Ostovich stretch the shit out of it like Rose did to her

Well yeah... because as I said, that kind of submissiom, as with pretty much every armbar you'll ever see, is attacking the elbow joint not forearm.

Even in the JRC fight she was't too bothered about the injury and fought well with it.

You're acknowledging she's so mentally tough but simultaneously questioning her ability to be mentally tough in a situation that has no real relevance to her injury. Which makes little sense. Are you trying to say that she might have some sort of fear of generic arm injuries now?

 

[rille31]

Moreira by sub at +435 is a gift line. It's the only way he wins.

alonzos tdd is prettys suspect so I could see Moreira holding top position for a dec or a gnp tko from mount

but yes sub is his most likely path to victory

 

[ill800]

I dont get from where is coming all that confidence in Lipski, I saw their championship fight and that sucks, was hard to see, just another staring contest. I dont see nothing special about that girl.

Probably why you should watch more than one fight when taping

 

[Soccer Steve]

alonzos tdd is prettys suspect so I could see Moreira holding top position for a dec or a gnp tko from mount

but yes sub is his most likely path to victory

If this lasts to decision I'll eat my hat.

 

[Austisthunder]

Sure but I don't think that correlates much to what I was saying. I was talking about a specific situation if Ostovich gets that PVZ's arm.

I’m also talking about a specific situation, Ostovich getting cracked in the face, your picking a weird thing to key in on

 

[matthew55]

Lol I'm actually not keying in on it. I think you're just trying to argue for no reason. I already said in my original post that it is "unlikely" so I really rather not clog up this feed over this.

I’m also talking about a specific situation, Ostovich getting cracked in the face, your picking a weird thing to key in on

 

[turbozed]

Trying to find an angle in the PVZ v. Ostovich fight seems exhausting.

Here's an angle: Ostovich is a true 125 lber with decent grappling and showing improvement. Looked pretty good for 2.5 rds against a somewhat talented Montana. PVZ is a 115 lber too lazy to keep cutting to her weight class in which she was already getting overpowered except by the absolute worst fighters (Curran, Chambers, Felice 1.0). PVZ has had 2 arm surgeries and wasn't able to train for about 9 out of the last 12 months since her last fight. PVZ is going to be at a size and physicality disadvantage but still lined as the favorite here. I ended up betting Ostovich ML +160 and DEC at +230.

There's another angle though which is that Ostovich was recently beaten up by her husband a little over a month ago. This must be a huge distraction with the police and media involved. And then factor in huge personal issues that spill into camp issues (husband was a trainer IIRC) and you got a big question mark in terms of her emotional stability.

Feel like it's a dog or pass situation but I went with the dog because this might be the last chance to fade PVZ as a favorite (or maybe ever, if she retires after losing which is poassible given how unfocused she seems to be on MMA). I have a very low opinion of PVZ as a fighter. Aside from the jump kick KO against Rawlings, she's looked absolutely bottom tier. Her last win besides that was against Chambers (a girl who went on to lose to Nadia Kassem) in 2015.

 

[turbozed]

Rachael didn't look like a solid flyweight in her last fight. Paige should be physically stronger while also being slightly taller with a significant reach advantage. Waterson is MUCH better than Paige at BJJ and striking, doubt either is true of Ostovich.

She might be the better wrestler, can see Paige trying one of her wmma throws and getting outscrambled but I think Paige will be able to bully her.

Not sure how you've come up with this assessment. Paige was never a strong or physical strawweight. She's landed only 35% of her takedowns and defended only 40%. This includes fights with girls like Chambers (1-4 UFC) and Curran (1-6 UFC). She looked undersized and underpowered against jrC who is herself a mediocre grappler. The move from 115 to 125 is the biggest % jump in UFC aside from 185 to 205, and I think it showed in the JJ/Valentina fight. Add to this the fact that PVZ hasn't even gotten a chance to bulk up and may have lost some strength due to injuries and surgeries and I'd be very surprised to see PVZ bully Ostovich or any other 125 lber for that matter.

 

[Sadistics]

Hardy/Crowder to end in the first 60 seconds is +715 at Betsafe

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Hardy/Crowder to end in the first 60 seconds is +715 at Betsafe

Tastey line that one.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Here's an angle: Ostovich is a true 125 lber with decent grappling and showing improvement. Looked pretty good for 2.5 rds against a somewhat talented Montana. PVZ is a 115 lber too lazy to keep cutting to her weight class in which she was already getting overpowered except by the absolute worst fighters (Curran, Chambers, Felice 1.0). PVZ has had 2 arm surgeries and wasn't able to train for about 9 out of the last 12 months since her last fight. PVZ is going to be at a size and physicality disadvantage but still lined as the favorite here. I ended up betting Ostovich ML +160 and DEC at +230.

There's another angle though which is that Ostovich was recently beaten up by her husband a little over a month ago. This must be a huge distraction with the police and media involved. And then factor in huge personal issues that spill into camp issues (husband was a trainer IIRC) and you got a big question mark in terms of her emotional stability.

Feel like it's a dog or pass situation but I went with the dog because this might be the last chance to fade PVZ as a favorite (or maybe ever, if she retires after losing which is poassible given how unfocused she seems to be on MMA). I have a very low opinion of PVZ as a fighter. Aside from the jump kick KO against Rawlings, she's looked absolutely bottom tier. Her last win besides that was against Chambers (a girl who went on to lose to Nadia Kassem) in 2015.

What are you trying to say about my girl Nadia?

Agree with your assessment though.

 

[burge13]

My god these threads get bogged down in semantics over the worst fights every card.

 

[piglord]

getting a will dillashaw miss weight prop added to ohmbet, if anyone wants any others hit me up.