UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

[Larthus]

Your point was silly, essentially all you were dooing is appealing to the 'consistency' of name-brand fighters like Jon Jones. This is the sort of crap that had Cejudo priced @ +400 where he probably should have been around +150.

There's nothing gimmicky about it. A -170 Khabib has different value than a -170 Michael Johnson. Plus its all matchup dependent

What I get for Khabib at -170 is a bargain compared to what I'm getting betting Michael Johnson at -170

 

[zeckdo]

lot of bro science going on in the thread this week.

 

[Sham5916910]

Jake is a huge usada victim. Massive physical change post usada

 

[WhosTheBoss]

If you can waste $249 you can do what you want lol. But no. The odds on a parlay like that are so high for good reason. 4/5 hit and you get $0, and you have major tossups and major dogs in there.

I know I got a few toss ups for sure.

I haven’t been following Jake... I know he’s like 2/8 in his last 10 with many being KOs

Does he have a legit shot? Or should I 97%+ scrap him

 

[Sham5916910]

Just play jake on his own if you want to play him no need to parlay a +400 line

 

[rev0lver]

I know I got a few toss ups for sure.

I haven’t been following Jake... I know he’s like 2/8 in his last 10 with many being KOs

Does he have a legit shot? Or should I 97%+ scrap him

Personally I'm only throwing a few dollars on him. He's pretty shot but can still throw pretty hard. Definitely wouldn't be putting a hundred or more.

 

[WhosTheBoss]

Just play jake on his own if you want to play him no need to parlay a +400 line

Yeh I just figured it’s the only way I get a decent pay day.

 

[Oblivian]

@WhosTheBoss and @Wiktoruspro should get along well.

 

[WhosTheBoss]

I’ve just lost so much money with poker the last 2 weeks I don’t even care lol

I’ve bet sports only a dozen times, always parlays. I hit a 10 team nfl parlay last year and it was like my 4th time ever betting

I try to stay away because I’m just a degenerate ... and I’ve been way more into MMA the last few years...so I figured I’d bet on it.

I need 5k to feel decent
10k would be terrific
20k I’m loving life

Hence the ridiclous parlay

 

[WhosTheBoss]

I did that same bet for $25 as well lol didn’t realize it. So it’s like 7k if it hits


Also got this gem

 

[edole]

Starting to like Figueiredo a bit.

Thoughts on his fight with Moraga?

 

[Karmello]

I did that same bet for $25 as well lol didn’t realize it. So it’s like 7k if it hits


Also got this gem

Big chance Gall and Barberena will win and Vick and Fili have hard fights, don't think it will hit but good luck anyway!

 

[rev0lver]

I’ve just lost so much money with poker the last 2 weeks I don’t even care lol

I’ve bet sports only a dozen times, always parlays. I hit a 10 team nfl parlay last year and it was like my 4th time ever betting

I try to stay away because I’m just a degenerate ... and I’ve been way more into MMA the last few years...so I figured I’d bet on it.

I need 5k to feel decent
10k would be terrific
20k I’m loving life

Hence the ridiclous parlay

I know you already placed your bets. But from betting on MMA for a year and a half (still a novice compared to some people here), I've learned that you have to accept lower payouts if you want a real profit. You shouldn't feel "decent" winning $5k when you're wagering such a comparatively low amount. You should feel extremely lucky. I have a pretty good pick rate, and I put small amounts on 5+ leg parlays every card but there's only a couple instances where it actually resulted in a $1k+ profit. Parlays are tough for a reason and anything can happen in MMA. They're attractive and tempting but they're far from easy money.

If you want a more realistic profit you're usually better off putting up more money and betting on singles. Bet your confident picks and feel good about getting a little profit, and play the odds a bit more (like on Jake) for a potentially more sizable profit. You may not win $5-10k (unless you're putting up a lot) but you're much more likely to get something doing this than to walk away empty handed.

 

[WhosTheBoss]

I hear you. But I am an all or nothing person, esp with gambling. I’d rather lose everything I have than to win $10

I want total victory. Lost 15k last week and I need it back. Let’s go war Berger!

I know you already placed your bets. But from betting on MMA for a year and a half (still a novice compared to some people here), I've learned that you have to accept lower payouts if you want a real profit. You shouldn't feel "decent" winning $5k when you're wagering such a comparatively low amount. You should feel extremely lucky. I have a pretty good pick rate, and I put small amounts on 5+ leg parlays every card but there's only a couple instances where it actually resulted in a $1k+ profit. Parlays are tough for a reason and anything can happen in MMA. They're attractive and tempting but they're far from easy money.

If you want a more realistic profit you're usually better off putting up more money and betting on singles. Bet your confident picks and feel good about getting a little profit, and play the odds a bit more (like on Jake) for a potentially more sizable profit. You may not win $5-10k (unless you're putting up a lot) but you're much more likely to get something doing this than to walk away empty handed.

 

[rev0lver]

Starting to like Figueiredo a bit.

Thoughts on his fight with Moraga?

Putting a bit on him myself. I'm a big Moraga fan, I love him and his attitude, but he's a gatekeeper. We've seen Deiveson against strong wrestlers and he can handle it (whether or not he should've won the Brooks fight). He has super dynamic grappling and probably has the striking advantage. Moraga's on a fortunate winstreak but I can't see it lasting here.

 

[piglord]

Putting a bit on him myself. I'm a big Moraga fan, I love him and his attitude, but he's a gatekeeper. We've seen Deiveson against strong wrestlers and he can handle it (whether or not he should've won the Brooks fight). He has super dynamic grappling and probably has the striking advantage. Moraga's on a fortunate winstreak but I can't see it lasting here.

i actually kind of feel that moraga is the more fluid striker, but fig has that single shot power. despite his wrestling base moraga isn't great at stuffing takedowns and he might struggle to deal with the immense strength of fig.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Does Vick have a glass chin? He was all over the place and out pretty badly in the Dariush fight and when he got stopped on TUF he was seeing stars on the ground. Has he ever taken shots well in a fight? He just looks like the kind of guy with a glass chin to me. The Dariush fight was very concerning if you're backing Vick

 

[piglord]

I hear you. But I am an all or nothing person, esp with gambling. I’d rather lose everything I have than to win $10

I want total victory. Lost 15k last week and I need it back. Let’s go war Berger!

hey man consider signing up to the links in my sig pretty please.

 

[WhosTheBoss]

hey man consider signing up to the links in my sig pretty please.

No idea what you’re talking about? I’m on my phone I don’t see anything


*** oh your Betonline? I already have accounts at every poker site imaginable. Sorry!

 

[rev0lver]

Does Vick have a glass chin? He was all over the place and out pretty badly in the Dariush fight and when he got stopped on TUF he was seeing stars on the ground. Has he ever taken shots well in a fight? He just looks like the kind of guy with a glass chin to me. The Dariush fight was very concerning if you're backing Vick

His range usually prevents him from taking damage. I don't know if it's a glass chin but I wouldn't put a ton of faith in it either. Gaethje WILL get in his face and tag him if Vick doesn't put him down on the way in, so it likely will be tested. That's why I'm leaning Gaethje here.