Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Naught2Sixty, Aug 5, 2018.
Pretty ok card. Got a few leans or fades I should say pre tape. Not much to talk about other than the ME and the event is 3 weeks away lol but I thought I'd make a thread anyway.
I mean, gaethje fights usually only go one of like 3 different ways, right? Either he get's hurt badly and isn't allowed to recover (I.E his last two losses), his suffocating pressure gets to be too much and his opponent breaks or of course the rare decision. I'm pretty sure both of Gaethje's decision victories were only 3 round fights so thats a huge factor here.
I can't really tell if there's value on Vick or not. Pretty much everyone that's wanted to has landed clean leg kicks on him. He's got good lateral footwork but can still get trapped against the fence. Duffy had a good amount of pressure on Vick in that first round that Vick was mostly able to circle away from. I feel like the kind of punches that Gaethje throws are the exact kind that Vick has become good at avoiding. Trinaldo didn't have much success winging bombs at Vick and was kept at range like the entire fight. Pretty good performance from Vick.
More tape to get through today!
This card as a whole is low-key better than 227. There’s a few matchups that I like already, even before tape.
I’m high on Casey over Hill. Casey is a big strawweight and Hill is on the smaller side. I hit Casey hard in the Waterson fight and I’ll go to my grave saying she got robbed there. Casey is capable on the ground and Hill is not. If Casey executes an even mildly intelligent game plan and takes the fight to the ground, I think she’ll dominate and maybe finish Hill with a sub.
I favor Johnson over Fili. Both guys have fought solid competition but I think MJ is the more dangerous fighter. MJ does have a knack for getting subbed and Fili is capable on the ground, so hedging with a Fili SUB prop isn’t a bad idea.
Dober has looked solid lately and I favor him over Tuck at a first glance.
Gaethje is a live dog obviously, but I’m waiting to see how that line moves before I draw conclusions there. I find myself questioning whether or not Vick has the grit to go to war with Gaethje and come out on the other side.
Casey is better than Hill on the mat I agree, but her ability to get it there kinda sucks imo. Granted that's just going on memory and not on watching tape. Hill has better, faster hands, but Casey is better in the clinch (where most WMMA fights tend to spend a lot of time). Obviously no point discussing further until lines released.
Vick got some ko power himself, the question is how much chin left on Justin.
In his ufc career he took already alot of damage, cant trust him at this point.
I like also MJ over Fili, this will be a striking much and MJ is the better striker here.
Not just in the UFC. Gaethje fought the same way in WSOF. Obviously way worse competition so he wasn't absorbing nearly the amount of damage per fight as in the UFC, but he would still just go toe to toe with everyone there too and did eat plenty of punches even while going undefeated over there.
Why doesn't Ellenburger just hang up the gloves man.
Vick’s TDD is pretty mediocre. If Gaethje actually shoots for some TDs like he’s said he plans to start doing more often, with the caliber of wrestler he is he should have no problem landing them and controlling Vick.
I see that scenario too so you cant be confident on either of them. I favour Vick but there is a risk that Justin comes in with a gameplan and uses his wrestling against James.
LOL when is the last time you've seen Gaethje shoot for TD's?
Gaethje is pretty consistent with his approach, fights everyone the same. Relentless pressure and leg kicks.
I'd be very surprised if he tried to take Vick down
So will Gaethje start mixing things up a bit more just to avoid being the easiest fighter to prepare for?
“It definitely would be a good idea,” he said. “I have to get people guessing if I’m going to take them down or not. They know what I’m coming with right now. Everyone knows I’m going to come in there and I’m going to stop your takedowns. So, yeah, it would benefit me to keep them guessing. I need to work it into my game plan.”
Didn't he say something similar before the Dustin Poirier fight?
Justin Gaethje on why he doesn’t use his wrestling: ‘I honestly don’t know’
“I’ve been wrestling my whole life. I should’ve and could’ve took him down a couple of times, especially when I had him rocked just to steal a round or two. For some reason, my mind will not let me do it.
“I think I sold myself so hard on the fact that this is not wrestling. I don’t know, I honestly don’t know the answer to that question.”
“It gets you tired. If I’m going to get tired, I’d rather it be from fighting and not from wrestling. That’s the reason why I never wanted to wrestle. But I did so much cardio this camp that it would not have been a problem for me to turn it into a wrestling match, but I just can’t do it, it would not be fun for me.”
Barberena vs. Ellenberger is snuff-level matchmaking
Well I'll believe it when I see it but for now it's just wishful thinking
Vick has a good guillotine so maybe he'd be running a risk trying to shoot on Vick anyway.
Vick vs Gaethje is a tough one to predict, Gaethje is never easy for anyone.
At least easy to predict the winner.
can vick dance for 5 rounds? i'm not sure. he's going to take leg damage and who knows how his cardio will hold up given his insane weight cut.
One thing is for sure that there will be no decision in this fight
I think this is a favorable matchup for Gaethje. The leg kicks should be a big factor. Then again, I typically lose betting against Vick.
Gaethje blocks punches with his face against guys who don't have a big reach advantage. I just wonder how many clean overhand shots he's gonna take flush from Vick while he's throwing those leg kicks.
Vick used to be a guy with a big reach advantage over the division but that didn't know how to use it. He's seemed to mostly have fixed that. But man I agree, his legs are so likely gonna get chewed up. This one is really tough to cap imo.
I underestimate Vick most of the time, but he's impressed me lately. The footwork and using his reach has improved drastically. I feel he's best using that when he gets respect early, but I honestly think Gaethje just doesn't give a fuck. Even if he's getting caught coming in, I don't think he's one that will back up. It's similar to against Michael Johnson who normally uses footwork and angles well. Gaethje was still able to make it a brawl. Once on the inside with Vick, I think Gaethje will give a lot of troubles.
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