UFN 125 - Anders vs Machida - Brazil

[raketmannen]

Finished De Andrade tape and added another unit, so 2u +118. He varies his power shots nicely and works hard leg kicks, which Lineker had success throwing against Chito. Vera has improved in the past year, but still doesn't have much for consistent offense as he hasn't developed his boxing and he doesn't possess the wrestling to take this to the mat imo. This plays out very similar to Linker matchup with Vera spamming kicks and flying knees while De Andrade lands the more consistent offense and harder shots.

I have not rewatched the Lineker fight yet, but as I remember it once Chito realized he could use offense to push Lineker back and that he could take one of his shots to land his own he started to have a lot of success, especially timing those knees as Lineker stepped into the pockey(Lineker gassing played a part aswell). On top of that he showed he got a damned good chin and can take a shot to the body without faltering. He was very hard on himself after that performance and really felt like he could win if he just turned it up earlier or had another round to work. I think he will learn a lot from that loss and I like his overall mentality and work ethic, left his country to chase his dream and got a wife and a sick child to support, some serious motivation. Have to rewatch some tape, especially to see how De Andrades gas tank holds up in the third because Chito will press hard in the late parts of the fight

 

[Stunna77]

I have not rewatched the Lineker fight yet, but once Chito realized he could use offense to push Lineker back and that he could take one of his shots to land his own he started to have a lot of success, especially timing those knees as Lineker stepped into the pockey(Lineker gassing played a part aswell). On top of that he showed he got a damned good chin and can take a shot to the body without faltering. He was very hard on himself after that performance and really felt like he could win if he just turned it up earlier or had another round to work. I think he will learn a lot from that loss and I like his overall mentality and work ethic, left his country to chase his dream and got a wife and a sick child to support, some serious motivation. Have to rewatch some tape, especially to see how De Andrades gas tank holds up in the third because Chito will press hard in the late parts of the fight

Linker seemed a bit off in that fight, could be from the Dillashaw beating, but Vera really didn't land anything of substance to press Lineker back. First two rounds were clear as day for Lineker as he consistently backed Chito up with his power punches and Vera landing little to no significant offense. He did better in the third, but Lineker's volume also dropped off and he still had some success when he did use his patented bursts. De Andrade turned it up in the 3rd against Briones, but did gas against Gibson before that. The Gibson fight involved more grappling/scrambling which I am not seeing here as Vera doesn't shoot tds and Andrade only seems to if he wants to puncuate a close round at the end. Vera definitely has a higher ceiling than I thought he did when he joined the UFC, but I am not sure he has improved enough to win here. I cap De Andrade around -150.

 

[Oblivian]

Green didn't look bad at all against Khabilov. The Dagestani couldn't take him down and was just a little bit better overall. Green seems to have a good gas tank. A win against Emmett is nice. Prazeres a little stiff on the feet but has the judge advantage being in Brazil but I'm not playing.

Watch Rd 3 of Brown/Green in Titan. Green almost died of exhaustion in Rd 3.

 

[Sadistics]

Watch Rd 3 of Brown/Green in Titan. Green almost died of exhaustion in Rd 3.

Needed an oxygen mask after but apparently he wasn't in great health going into that one. His cardio has looked good in all other fights

 

[Oblivian]

Needed an oxygen mask after but apparently he wasn't in great health going into that one. His cardio has looked good in all other fights

To me it's enough of a red flag heading into his first fight in Brazil in a hot arena. It's one of those factors to influence a play if you are sitting on the fence betting for or against him.

 

[Sadistics]

To me it's enough of a red flag heading into his first fight in Brazil in a hot arena. It's one of those factors to influence a play if you are sitting on the fence betting for or against him.

Fair, personally I'm not counting that anomaly when capping this fight, especially when Praz has gassed in the majority of his fights. I'm actually expecting Green to gas Praz out via defending the high energy TDs, making Praz close the distance, constantly sticking him with his long jab and maybe even landing his own TDs. Green already fights pretty long and will have a 6" reach adv. The Lee and Lazaro fights are very telling in this one.

 

[rille31]

prazeres is an older guy with a lot of muscle mass and a tough weight cut (even at 5'6).

sure he might take green down, but green isn't just going to flop to his back like praz's previous opponents, he'll make the big boy work and drain that gas tank.

i can definitely see it going down like lee/prazeres with green taking over in 2 and 3.

I actually think Praz could be the better striker, packs more power for sure

 

[Stunna77]

Props out:

1u Shev ITD -135
.5u Green Dec +255
.2u each:
Santos dec +575
Soto Dec +225
De Andrade Dec +235

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Oh wow, just checked out Maia Stevenson's fight record outside of TUF, her last 5 opponents are like, 0-22, put together. And she literally only has wins over opponents with an all-losing record.

She looked terrible on the show also, but I thought her husband might at least have passed on some skills to her. UFC, the world's premiere mma organisation indeed....

 

[Sadistics]

Oh wow, just checked out Maia Stevenson's fight record outside of TUF, her last 5 opponents are like, 0-22, put together. And she literally only has wins over opponents with an all-losing record.

She looked terrible on the show also, but I thought her husband might at least have passed on some skills to her. UFC, the world's premiere mma organisation indeed....

I assume that's the sole reason for this crazy line, Viana has not looked good either.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Oh wow, just checked out Maia Stevenson's fight record outside of TUF, her last 5 opponents are like, 0-22, put together. And she literally only has wins over opponents with an all-losing record.

She looked terrible on the show also, but I thought her husband might at least have passed on some skills to her. UFC, the world's premiere mma organisation indeed....

Mmmhmm and Polyana Viana is no joke. In her mma career she's fought questionable talent as well but at least her opponents have wins. She has legit jitz. Standing kimuras, rnc's. I'm looking to play her ITD line at +110. Not the best value but hey it's got a +

 

[MT6ix]

Oh wow, just checked out Maia Stevenson's fight record outside of TUF, her last 5 opponents are like, 0-22, put together. And she literally only has wins over opponents with an all-losing record.

She looked terrible on the show also, but I thought her husband might at least have passed on some skills to her. UFC, the world's premiere mma organisation indeed....

I haven't watched any tape on the two but do you think the fight goes to the scorecards or does Viana finish her?

Over 2.5 seems reasonable @-129 for a wmma fight.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

I haven't watched any tape on the two but do you think the fight goes to the scorecards?

Over 2.5 seems reasonable @-129 for a wmma fight.

Couldn't tell you, have little knowledge about either fighter. Personally it's a complete no bet for me.

 

[Naterade]

Confident in Vera here...best money on the card IMO

He has a ton of potential and has been improving massively every fight these past 2 years since moving from Ecuador where there is no training. Came in on 2 week notice to face Lineker and was starting to take over/clearly won the 3rd but it was too late, Lineker would have been in trouble if that was a 5 rounder.

Vera has very dynamic striking/muay thai and has a great understanding of distance + super slick jujitsu. De Andrade is a discount Lineker...plots forward and throws looping shots, now Vera has had a full camp to prepare. I think Vera is going to catch him with a head kick or knee and finish him on the ground

 

[PuertoRican]

Oh wow, just checked out Maia Stevenson's fight record outside of TUF, her last 5 opponents are like, 0-22, put together. And she literally only has wins over opponents with an all-losing record.

She looked terrible on the show also, but I thought her husband might at least have passed on some skills to her. UFC, the world's premiere mma organisation indeed....

All of Stevenson's wins are from Gladiator Challenge, a well-known organization that sets certain fighters up with opponents who they are more than likely to beat and/or are just fixed fights. Several UFC fighters a few years ago came from Gladiator Challenge and XFC/XFS (something with an "XF" in front) and washed out from the UFC real quick. This is the first time I've seen a female MMA fighter get signed to the UFC with a Gladiator Challenge background.

What's more, all of Stevenson's losses are from when she ventured outside of Gladiator Challenge and tried to take on non-fixed fights.

Not to mention, she'll be 36-years-old in March.

 

[SBJJ]

I actually think Praz could be the better striker, packs more power for sure

I agree with this. Praz has improved a lot imo

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Confident in Vera here...best money on the card IMO

He has a ton of potential and has been improving massively every fight these past 2 years since moving from Ecuador where there is no training. Came in on 2 week notice to face Lineker and was starting to take over/clearly won the 3rd but it was too late, Lineker would have been in trouble if that was a 5 rounder.

Vera has very dynamic striking/muay thai and has a great understanding of distance + super slick jujitsu. De Andrade is a discount Lineker...plots forward and throws looping shots, now Vera has had a full camp to prepare. I think Vera is going to catch him with a head kick or knee and finish him on the ground

Andrade barely throws hooks in the first place, wide or not. The majority of his punches are jabs and straights, with some uppercuts thrown in there now and then. Add that with his kicks and he shows decent diversity in his attacks. Doesn't mind too much going backwards either, and shows a measured and methodical approach. So basically... he fights nothing like Lineker? I think your confidence is misplaced if that's your assesment of Andrade.

 

[ill800]

Placed a small bet on Maia ml and decision because well, it’s low level wmma and the odds look good to me

 

[MacPherson911]

I assume that's the sole reason for this crazy line, Viana has not looked good either.

Everyone I’ve see of her looks legit.

 

[Sadistics]

Everyone I’ve see of her looks legit.

Almost all of her wins have come from her catching a sub off her back, a strategy you can't rely on in modern MMA. There's 0 tape of her getting her own TD. She's long and doesn't look lost on the feet but I favour Stevenson there with her boxing background. Stevenson does look to have decent sub defense despite only training BJJ for 6 years.