UFN 104 - Bermudez vs Korean Zombie - Houston

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Like the overs Carcacinha/Tanaka and Torres/Bec , im on double this.
0,5u.
 
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/culturesports/2016/03/31/39/0702000000AEN20160331000300315F.html

Interview from late march last year. Maybe this is common knowledge already...

Because of the shoulder injury, Jung was enlisted as a "social service member," and therefore can complete his military service by carrying out non-combat duties at public offices or organizations.

The 29-year-old said he goes straight to his gym after the end of his workday, but hasn't been training properly because he has been rehabbing his right shoulder while also taking care of his newborn babies.

"I will finish my right shoulder rehab within a month and have some sparring sessions," he said. "Of course, my right shoulder will not be the same as it was before, but I will be able to compete."

Also, not super relevant to the fight but pretty funny:

Jung, a native of Pohang, a port city that is 360 kilometers south of Seoul, said he got to know many people while being outside the fighting ring. But once he wears the gloves again, Jung said he will stay away from them so he can stay focused on his fighting career.

"I'm a guy who only knew about MMA fighting, and I was actually afraid of getting to know a lot of people while doing my social service," he said. "I'm sorry to them, but I will not answer their calls once I return to fighting."

Fuck off new friends.
 
All dogs for me.

Bermudez Vs Zombie- Don't trust Bermudez durability in a 5 rounder, or his ability to finish Zombie. Probably going to be on Zombie ITD small

Hill Vs Andrade- Hill at +300 or more is too much I'll play her, unless Andrade -3.5 is reasonable which it won't be

Torres Vs Rawlings- Betting Rawlings because she actually looked decent vs Paige until getting dome kicked. Her attributes might give Torres a hard time.

Skelly Vs Macher- I try to not back fighters with cardio issues. Macher I think will be improved from his last fight. He has a diverse attack, and I cap him at better then a 33% chance of winning. Hoping he gets to +230-+250.

Price Vs Morono- Fuck Price for blowing up my poorly formed parlays with Thatch in them last time so yeah.

That's my very detailed breakdown...
 
Dk how many units that is for you but personally I think both Trujillo and Vick are too weird of fighters to have considerable money on. You could always do a little hedging though if Andrade hits. Def think there are better options for a parlay though, card is filled with -200or more faves who very likely come through
why even do a two-man parlay if you're going to partially headge out of the second leg?
 
why even do a two-man parlay if you're going to partially headge out of the second leg?
Yeah agreed just trying to put myself in his shoes if thats the route he goes. I just would feel real uncomfortable with that much on the Trujillo fight if the first leg comes through, but hes ultimately gotta decide what to do
 
2 pick parlay

Andrade and Trujillo 460 to win 645.. worth it?

I'm fairly confident in Trujillo winning but I want some opinions.

Would be careful with Trujillo, it's a close fight imo, I could easily see Vick taking a win there, it's a risky double but if you wanna take the gamble it could always turn out nice for you
 
@Ukram youre the man at finding fights, any chance you can find the Price fight vs Hosch that went to a decision? Ive tried everything

Can't find a video either, closest I can find is photos from the fight, if that helps in any way at all. Shows us a little how the fight played out but obviously not anywhere near as good as a video.

Fight Gallery

2016 > Fight Time 32 > Price vs Hosch
 
Yeah agreed just trying to put myself in his shoes if thats the route he goes. I just would feel real uncomfortable with that much on the Trujillo fight if the first leg comes through, but hes ultimately gotta decide what to do
I know we've debated the merits of parlays bf, but in the long run it doesn't make sense. If more of your leans are favorites, but them accordingly based upon risk / reward.
hedging makes even less sense, unless of course if the line changes. Otherwise, you're just paying more juice.
And even headging fighter a with fighter b by dec is not the right move. in that instance, bet not fighter b itd. in 99% of the time you'll pay less juice that way
 
Yeah agreed just trying to put myself in his shoes if thats the route he goes. I just would feel real uncomfortable with that much on the Trujillo fight if the first leg comes through, but hes ultimately gotta decide what to do
LOL this. It's kinda crazy to think how much money rides on the last leg of a long ass parlay and people dont even realize it. Not gonna sit there and calculate it but @LEMONZEST prob had ~2k on Shev for his $3600 parlay (big congrats on that btw). Imagine having that much money on a long shot prob like Knight sub to close out one of those hail mary parlays lol
 
2 pick parlay

Andrade and Trujillo 460 to win 645.. worth it?

I'm fairly confident in Trujillo winning but I want some opinions.

I would just play Trujillo straight at his current odds and find safer parlay options. He is providing most of the return in that parlay anyways. How pissed would you be if andrade blew it up?
 
All dogs for me.

Bermudez Vs Zombie- Don't trust Bermudez durability in a 5 rounder, or his ability to finish Zombie. Probably going to be on Zombie ITD small

Hill Vs Andrade- Hill at +300 or more is too much I'll play her, unless Andrade -3.5 is reasonable which it won't be

Torres Vs Rawlings- Betting Rawlings because she actually looked decent vs Paige until getting dome kicked. Her attributes might give Torres a hard time.

Skelly Vs Macher- I try to not back fighters with cardio issues. Macher I think will be improved from his last fight. He has a diverse attack, and I cap him at better then a 33% chance of winning. Hoping he gets to +230-+250.

Price Vs Morono- Fuck Price for blowing up my poorly formed parlays with Thatch in them last time so yeah.

That's my very detailed breakdown...

Macher diverse attack? He plods forward happy to brawl thats how he fights. I wouldnt call that diverse. He also doesnt utilise the best defence to having your back taken in a scramble. Thats Skellys strongest suit.
 
i can't believe people are betting andrade in the -400's. i think she's great, but come on. ZERO respect for hill. you'd better hope andrade respects hill more than people who are betting -4xx are.
 
Betting WMMA has three rules:
1. Always bet the over
2. Always bet the dog
3. Always be prepared to be disappointed

Rules might be changed for championships bouts.

I'll wait a while and play both the dogs, Hill or Herring should make it happen.
 
I am on Grasso while she is still in the -2xx range, but may play Hill and Bec small as dogs, especially if prices keep moving the way they are. I was impressed by Grasso against Clark as she dealt well with a pressure fighter, looked good in the clinch from what I remember and pieced her up on the feet. I believe she had her hurt a couple times. Anyone have intel on Grasso's ground game? Haven't gotten around to watching tape yet. I don't think much of Felice, even though she did look better against Curran last time out.
 
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Andrade is a beast! will bump tread after she steamrolls Hill :)

Andrade is going to wreck Angela… It's going to be an ugly affair with Andrade on Angela like a Rottweiler who hasn't eaten in a week.

I'll post the rest of my pics later. Another play that I really like is Herrig over Alex as I believe that she can get the necessary takedowns to win a unanimous decision. It's purely a play.
 
Thanks everyone who gave me advice. I lost faith in Vick after seeing him get put away so easily by Dariush. Not a bad name to lose to but still it was a shutout.

I'm a fan of Trujillo and it's true he can be hot and cold. He seems to be in a good place right now though. Truthfully I've already placed the bet and am now at the mercy of the MMA gods (or my stupidity).

War Killa
 
I am on Grasso while she is still in the -2xx range, but may play Hill and Bec small as dogs, especially if prices keep moving the way they are. I was impressed by Grasso against Clark as she dealt well with a pressure fighter, looked good in the clinch from what I remember and pieced her up on the feet. I believe she had her hurt a couple times. Anyone have intel on Grasso's ground game? Haven't gotten around to watching tape yet. I don't think much of Felice, even though she did look better against Curran last time out.


Heather Jo Clark is about the most mediocre athlete on the UFC's female roster and stylistically was the absolute perfect opponent for Grasso. However, if you go back in Grasso's fight catalog and check out her tilt against the diminutive Mizuki Inoue in what was her penultimate Invicta fight, you will see how shaky her takedown defense is. I know that Miz is a quality fighter, but she was also just 20 years old when she fought against Alexa and had it not been for a couple of mental mistakes she probably would have won that fight IIRC. I do know that Miz had Grasso in a world of trouble in the final round. She had taken her down and was working her over from top control, ultimately getting the amount with like 30 seconds left where she didn't have enough time to finish the job.

I believe that Felice may be able to replicate a similar style .. I know that she is a kickboxer first, but she also has good grappling and pretty nice wrestling as well. Training with Jeff Curran has her well prepared on the mat and this could be a very close fight if Alexa is not able to defend the takedowns.
 
I am on Grasso while she is still in the -2xx range, but may play Hill and Bec small as dogs, especially if prices keep moving the way they are. I was impressed by Grasso against Clark as she dealt well with a pressure fighter, looked good in the clinch from what I remember and pieced her up on the feet. I believe she had her hurt a couple times. Anyone have intel on Grasso's ground game? Haven't gotten around to watching tape yet. I don't think much of Felice, even though she did look better against Curran last time out.
Grasso is talented but too green imo. I wouldn't pay the juice on her but I'm not running to my computer to bet against her
 
Angela +300 would imply that she has 25%. I think itscloser to 33% percent so there is value here for anyone who wants it imo. I just think Andrade's gonna maul her.
 
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