UFN 104 - Bermudez vs Korean Zombie - Houston

[daggen]

Andrade is going to wreck Angela… It's going to be an ugly affair with Andrade on Angela like a Rottweiler who hasn't eaten in a week.

I'll post the rest of my pics later. Another play that I really like is Herrig over Alex as I believe that she can get the necessary takedowns to win a unanimous decision. It's purely a play.

Im on Herrig too, she looked good in her last fight, good takedowns as you say, really strong!

 

[LEMONZEST]

LOL this. It's kinda crazy to think how much money rides on the last leg of a long ass parlay and people dont even realize it. Not gonna sit there and calculate it but @LEMONZEST prob had ~2k on Shev for his $3600 parlay (big congrats on that btw). Imagine having that much money on a long shot prob like Knight sub to close out one of those hail mary parlays lol

well tbh I bet 1k on Pena once I realized that was the last leg. 3600 is just too much for me to let it ride without hedging. If my roll was bigger I would just let it ride as I really did believe shev had it in the bag.

PS. its funny cuz my unit size is 20 USD. so to go from betting 20 bucks to 1k USD is a big jump. I was having all kinds of nerves...such a wreck lol. I love the sweat as the gambling degen I am.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Going fairly big on Morono and the O 1.5 for that fight. Morono is just such a tough and durable guy. Admittedly, I have only seen Price's fight vs Thatch, but I don't believe Price's ground game is better than Morono's. Price could potentially have the edge on the feet, but I would be surprised if he stopped Morono.

Morono took a lot of hard shots in both the Noke and Moontasri (those body kicks tho) and kept coming.

I think price was awarded his brown belt few days or right after he beat thatch. I remember we were watching tape on price and he didnt look good there. i think thatch just sucks big time and it made niko look better than he actually is. morono should be better everywhere in my opinion.

 

[iGnP]

well tbh I bet 1k on Pena once I realized that was the last leg. 3600 is just too much for me to let it ride without hedging. If my roll was bigger I would just let it ride as I really did believe shev had it in the bag.

PS. its funny cuz my unit size is 20 USD. so to go from betting 20 bucks to 1k USD is a big jump. I was having all kinds of nerves...such a wreck lol. I love the sweat as the gambling degen I am.

That's precisely why I think people should stay w single bets and just roll them over in parlay fashion if they have the means to and don't mind keeping track of it. Was that your only bet of the night? You

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I know I don't contribute hardly anything to this forum but goddamn is there a lot of off topic squabbling nowadays.

I don't want to get in a big debate about it and I won't actually, but you are right. It's what I had me stay away for a really long time and even to this point posting sporadically when I used to post daily or every other day and definitely at least each even. What's more, it's not just the squabbling that gets me, but these new posters who keep coming out of the woodwork with their braggadocio trash talk as if they are doing us a favor for posting here. What used to separate this particular thread from the rest of SD — i.e. The heavies — was the way he spoke to one another like grown-ups. Now every page is filled up with fucking dickhead's who have the couth of a group of teenage girls and prepubescent males posting their thoughts on a Justin Bieber YouTube comments section. #FirstWorldProblems #TripDownMemoryLane lol

 

[LEMONZEST]

That's precisely why I think people should stay w single bets and just roll them over in parlay fashion if they have the means to and don't mind keeping track of it. Was that your only bet of the night? You

You may be right from an EV point of view but its not half as sexy. I don't really take these hail mary parlay's seriously. I want to put down my 5 or 10 bucks and hope for the best. It is too much of a pain to keep track of it and then make all these little bets every fight. It would be a lot less fun for me to do what you are suggesting.

I take my main money line plays seriously but my 5 and 10 dollar hail mary's are just fun - and if I hit one every 5 years or so then great.

PS. also I don't have the mental space to do what you are suggesting. I am too busy during fights thinking about LB opportunties, making my primary ML plays, and taking a pee....

 

[Officer_Brown]

I want ur opinions. I need rock solid parlay with odds at least 5:1. Go. Lets see what you got.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Im on Herrig too, she looked good in her last fight, good takedowns as you say, really strong!

Awesome! BOL bro!

Also I wanted to make something clear, although I believe that Andrade will wreck shop on Angela, Inam not advocating a bet on her. Angela isn't a bum by any means and there's no way that I would play -400 juice on a fighter like Andrade. Perhaps if you wanted to put something on one of her props like a flyer on her decision that may be understandable. As it is that is a dog or pass.

 

[BatBoyJG]

Macher diverse attack? He plods forward happy to brawl thats how he fights. I wouldnt call that diverse. He also doesnt utilise the best defence to having your back taken in a scramble. Thats Skellys strongest suit.

He kicks, he throws body shots, grinds in the clinch etc. I don't think will submit him.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I don't want to get in a big debate about it and I won't actually, but you are right. It's what I had me stay away for a really long time and even to this point posting sporadically when I used to post daily or every other day and definitely at least each even. What's more, it's not just the squabbling that gets me, but these new posters who keep coming out of the woodwork with their braggadocio trash talk as if they are doing us a favor for posting here. What used to separate this particular thread from the rest of SD — i.e. The heavies — was the way he spoke to one another like grown-ups. Now every page is filled up with fucking dickhead's who have the couth of a group of teenage girls and prepubescent males posting their thoughts on a Justin Bieber YouTube comments section. #FirstWorldProblems #TripDownMemoryLane lol

srsly Bieber is life...

 

[Sham5916910]

Heather Jo Clark is about the most mediocre athlete on the UFC's female roster and stylistically was the absolute perfect opponent for Grasso. However, if you go back in Grasso's fight catalog and check out her tilt against the diminutive Mizuki Inoue in what was her penultimate Invicta fight, you will see how shaky her takedown defense is. I know that Miz is a quality fighter, but she was also just 20 years old when she fought against Alexa and had it not been for a couple of mental mistakes she probably would have won that fight IIRC. I do know that Miz had Grasso in a world of trouble in the final round. She had taken her down and was working her over from top control, ultimately getting the amount with like 30 seconds left where she didn't have enough time to finish the job.

I believe that Felice may be able to replicate a similar style .. I know that she is a kickboxer first, but she also has good grappling and pretty nice wrestling as well. Training with Jeff Curran has her well prepared on the mat and this could be a very close fight if Alexa is not able to defend the takedowns.

Clarke is mediocre but she gave felice more trouble than she gave grasso. She smashed her nose across her face in r1. Miz was only 20 when she fought grasso but grasso was only 21. Young kids make big improvements in short spaces of time and learn from their mistakes.

It looked to me like grasso dropped for the inverted triangle twice when inoue shot which is clearly bad fight iq but they didnt look like proper td's to me. She did single leg grasso in r3 tho. I wouldnt call inoues loss mental lapses. She was easily out struck in r1 and was being out struck in r2 until the takedown. Grasso still won the grappling battle in r2 she had an inverted triangle locked up we dont know that inoue wasnt saved by the bell.

In grasso's two fights since she has stuffed every td showing improved fight iq. Clearly learnt her lesson imo. Against clark she showed excellent clinch awareness using whizzers when needed underhooking correct and using good head control pressing constantly into clarke's chest. She has clearly improved excellent show of fundamentals for a woman fighter.

Felice has good subs but is positionally sloppy watch her slopfeast with the worst wmma fighter ive ever seen lisa ellis. Grasso sunk an inverted triangle on inoue and had a close armbar attempt in r3. I think the ground will be fairly even. Grasso has a clear striking advantage better cardio and is 9 years younger. How long does felice have left at 32...

I expect felice to clinch for td's find them hard to come by due to how fundamentally sound grasso is in the clinch and to tire down the stretch on her way to being out struck. If she does get grasso down i expect her to hold her own and be able to get back to her feet. Grasso is more fundamentally sound in the clinch than pvz who she struggled with in that position. Grasso has power too she smashed the nose of the last two women she fought.

 

[Sham5916910]

He kicks, he throws body shots, grinds in the clinch etc. I don't think will submit him.

The spanaird had his back four times and had a rnc sunk but gritz managed to shake him. I really think skelly gets a sub here

 

[Stunna77]

Heather Jo Clark is about the most mediocre athlete on the UFC's female roster and stylistically was the absolute perfect opponent for Grasso. However, if you go back in Grasso's fight catalog and check out her tilt against the diminutive Mizuki Inoue in what was her penultimate Invicta fight, you will see how shaky her takedown defense is. I know that Miz is a quality fighter, but she was also just 20 years old when she fought against Alexa and had it not been for a couple of mental mistakes she probably would have won that fight IIRC. I do know that Miz had Grasso in a world of trouble in the final round. She had taken her down and was working her over from top control, ultimately getting the amount with like 30 seconds left where she didn't have enough time to finish the job.

I believe that Felice may be able to replicate a similar style .. I know that she is a kickboxer first, but she also has good grappling and pretty nice wrestling as well. Training with Jeff Curran has her well prepared on the mat and this could be a very close fight if Alexa is not able to defend the takedowns.

Thanks Goodfella. Like I said I haven't had a chance to review any past fights, so appreciate the insight. I played her + Hamilton for a unit as I thought lines would get worse, but will definitely review tape before adding any more (or possibly buying out). At this point I would assume we would see some good improvements from Grasso fight to fight, but I guess we will see if the tape shows that or not..

 

[Sham5916910]

Im on Herrig too, she looked good in her last fight, good takedowns as you say, really strong!

Against an awful fighter

 

[Joseph Budden]

Think i've stated this but Herrig's only chance is a sub. Will probably play that line small as a pseudo hedge to whatever parlays Grasso is in. I'm not convinced at all she can grind Grasso for three rounds, especially once she starts taking damage which is going to happen

 

[Stunna77]

I wouldn't mind seeing some grappling though as that is pretty much the best part of any Felice fight..face down, ass up!

 

[Sham5916910]

Felice has bad cardio to boot while grasso has excellent cardio. A back and forth fight with lots of scrambling will not suit felice. See pvz fight she was exhausted by r3

 

[Officer_Brown]

Just a reminder: Daniel jolly took misha fight in 10 days notice.

 

[Jamah]

Odds right now in William Hill: Morono @2.20 , Jolly @2.50

 

[Officer_Brown]

daniel jolly vs foster (9-4 guy) (a fight before ufc) jolly avoided ground at any cost vs misha. he was on top of misha and just stood up from there really weird. here he does decent passings (not a whitebelt imo) and holds top control. Could definitely give problems to rountree on the ground if it goes there. what concerns me is jolly's stand up. he was afraid to box with misha and kept spamming right high kick. rountree throws great combinations but he goes into panic mode when he gets pushed against the fence and taken down. he needs to calm the fuck down. jolly been training at ATT lately (maybe small confidence increase) anyone know why jolly has been out for 1,5 yrs?idk how to play this.. rountree is clearly better on the feet but gets taken down too easily. if it goes there I see jolly controlling him. fuck!