Abel isn't a skillful fighter in any aspect of the game, he only gets by because he's an explosive athlete and even that comes at a cost, he's known for fading in fights. In the Ferguson fight he got tired and mentally quit, he gave Tony that sub.
Also comes from a wrestling background but has no TDD and isn't a great offensive wrestler either. He'll be dangerous in round 1 and he'll be strong but he'll only get weaker as the fight goes on and Vick will take over. Vick is a better boxer, better grappler and he's got that guillotine. Fight is also in Texas and thats where Vick is from, 29-28 Vick incoming.
Wouldn't be shocked to see Trujillo win but Vick deserves to be a favourite. I don't understand people coming in on Trujillo at current price.
I agree with the points your making, much better than the obnoxious crap you've been spouting the last couple pages. Keep it up.
Vick has some terrible striking defence imo. He is susceptible to high kicks and punches sneak past his defence easily. He could definitely shore up on his defence for this fight, but Truijillo will throw everything but the kitchen sink in that first round. Do I think Vick survives this? No I dont. Especially with the newer rules, Im not confident Vick could win a decision here either. Vick may be winning most of the second round, but if Truijillo explodes on him in short busrsts to do heavy damage he could win the later rounds. The newer rules definitely favor Truijllo here and that's one aspect we shouldnt forget.
Haven't done it yet, but thinking about pulling the trigger on Trujillo, if he continues to be at a dog price.
Trujillo:
- Improved cardio and pacing. Perhaps even better now after settling into a new routine
- Showed fight IQ last fight, when it was 1-1, and he pushed it in 3rd
- Wrestle advantage
- Power advantage
- Can quit sometimes, but won't be a problem here, since he can keep the fight standing, which also helps his cardio
Vick:
- Reach advantage
- His hooks works really well
- Has a okay chin/will
- Better cardio
- High guard is a disadvantage because of his long torso, since Abel really likes to punish the body in the clinch
- Doesn't threat with TD's, so Abel can wing his punches
- Doesn't use his knees enough even with the height advantage
- Poor TDD
- Doesn't use his reach very well. Gets hurt often by overhands, which will be a BIG advantage for Abel
Abel was scheduled to fight Evan Dunham. A fight where he would be a even bigger underdog which is justified, but I imagine, that his gameplan had evolve around his wrestling, and getting the fight to the ground and stay in top control. He could very well apply the same gameplan in this fight, the only changes being, that he also could open up more with his striking aswell.
Abel could easily finish the fight in round 1, but could also empty his gas tank. If he hurts Vick in r1, but doesn't finish him, Vick could easily cruise to a dec win in his hometown. I really don't believe that Vick can stop this fight, since Abel has a pretty good chin, and Vick don't have the power to put him away. A sub win from Vick is really low percentage IMO. The guillotine from the clinch is the only sub option.
Have convinced myself even more after writing this, and if you look at the competition they both faced and their last fights, I really don't feel that Abel should be the dog in this one.
