UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[Oblivian]

Lauzon is going to smash him on the feet real bad before that happens.

And Lauzon is a lot more trustworthy in every position. Held's fight IQ is complete shit. We're talking about a guy who went to elevation and threw a fucking cart wheel kick before putting ALL of his energy behind a choke

Lauzon is not exactly Mr. Dependable. Someone on here was talking about watching tape of him vs. Dunham and thinking Lauzon was injured, but that's been a history with Lauzon. Sometimes he just looks really flat.

 

[Buddy Brown]

Maybe, but maybe not. Who the hell knows what type of Lauzon shows up. I personally have this fight at about 50/50. Held can be suffocating when he gets on top.

I agree that Lauzon can be hard to trust, but he's only not shown up against MJ, Iaquinta and Dunham since 2013... All of whom would destroy Held

When you're looking at how he matches up with Held... What clear edges do you give Held? His top game maybe, but Lauzon has sick scrambles and I think will negate Held's grappling at the very least. Lauzon has clear edges on the feet and in the clinch.

 

[Oblivian]

I agree that Lauzon can be hard to trust, but he's only not shown up against MJ, Iaquinta and Dunham since 2013... All of whom would destroy Held

When you're looking at how he matches up with Held... What clear edges do you give Held? His top game maybe, but Lauzon has sick scrambles and I think will negate Held's grappling at the very least. Lauzon has clear edges on the feet and in the clinch.

Well for one, I think a lot of this fight will happen on the ground anyhow. Lauzon in the clinch? Maybe with striking, but Held bringing it to the ground from there is a lot more likely to me than Lauzon just busting him up.

People bust a nut over Lauzon's ground game, but man, that is completely nostalgia talking. Lauzon has not hit a sub since he got the triangle over Varner back in 2012. People always assume he's a high level black belt too. This has been going on for years. I remember when people thought he was going to outgrapple George Sotiropoulus, and it was complete domination the other ways. Joe's great at attacking submissions and he is a strong grappler, but he is not near the level that a lot of people put him at.

I haven't even bet this fight yet. I just lol when people act like Lauzon should be something like -250 here (not you). I can understand slightly favoring Lauzon or even seeing value in him at close to evens, but Held has a lot to bring to the table in a fight that has a good chance at seeing a lot of grappling.

 

[Sham5916910]

I agree that Lauzon can be hard to trust, but he's only not shown up against MJ, Iaquinta and Dunham since 2013... All of whom would destroy Held

When you're looking at how he matches up with Held... What clear edges do you give Held? His top game maybe, but Lauzon has sick scrambles and I think will negate Held's grappling at the very least. Lauzon has clear edges on the feet and in the clinch.

Id add the Danzig fight to that too. I know he won but i thought he was washed up after that fight. He's definitely a bit 50 50 as to what Lauzon shows up. I've thought numerous times he was washed up but then he will come back and put in a solid performance out of no where.

 

[Stunna77]

I wouldn't be at all surprised is Lauzon does peice held up on the feet/in the clinch. I also wouldn't be shocked in Held came in with better conditioning and improved striking. Or if Lauzon flakes. Just going to enjoy this one.

 

[SamHale]

From Lauzon on his shorts colour - https://www.reddit.com/r/MMA/comments/5nn7aw/ufc_fight_night_phoenix_lauzon_vs_held_episode_1/

I am in the red corner, but wearing blue shorts. Americans can choose from black, white and blue.

Marcin is in the blue corner, but wearing red shorts. Polish fighters can choose from black, white and red.

So I am red corner wearing blue. Marcin is blue corner wearing red. I argue this is confusing for judges. I was told it would not be changing.

In my fight with Jim Miller... I was the red corner wearing blue. Most people thought I won, but Jim got the decision. So when the judges put down BLUE WON, did they mean the blue corner or the blue shorts. Writing down BLUE meant blue corner, but it could be confusing.

------

We switched to black. He will still be red in the blue corner, but that's all we can do.

Man this is all so dumb, why can't the UFC just leave as little margin for error possible? Judges in general seem like they're an easily distracted/confused group of individuals so not loving this info.

 

[EzFlyer]

I just lol when people act like Lauzon should be something like -250 here (not you). I can understand slightly favoring Lauzon or even seeing value in him at close to evens, but Held has a lot to bring to the table in a fight that has a good chance at seeing a lot of grappling.

this ^^^

 

[Oblivian]

Id add the Danzig fight to that too. I know he won but i thought he was washed up after that fight. He's definitely a bit 50 50 as to what Lauzon shows up. I've thought numerous times he was washed up but then he will come back and put in a solid performance out of no where.

That was a weird one. It was like he didn't want to show any level of urgency for damage which was opposite of what he used to do. Lauzon is just a strange guy. At this point, I actually think his hands are about as dangerous as his ground game. A lot of his subs were after rocking guys anyhow.

 

[Buddy Brown]

Well for one, I think a lot of this fight will happen on the ground anyhow. Lauzon in the clinch? Maybe with striking, but Held bringing it to the ground from there is a lot more likely to me than Lauzon just busting him up.

People bust a nut over Lauzon's ground game, but man, that is completely nostalgia talking. Lauzon has not hit a sub since he got the triangle over Varner back in 2012. People always assume he's a high level black belt too. This has been going on for years. I remember when people thought he was going to outgrapple George Sotiropoulus, and it was complete domination the other ways. Joe's great at attacking submissions and he is a strong grappler, but he is not near the level that a lot of people put him at.

I haven't even bet this fight yet. I just lol when people act like Lauzon should be something like -250 here (not you). I can understand slightly favoring Lauzon or even seeing value in him at close to evens, but Held has a lot to bring to the table in a fight that has a good chance at seeing a lot of grappling.

Let's not bring in sub losses from 2010 into account when talking about this fight. The last time he got subbed was 2010, last time before that was 2006.

The only paths to victory I see for Held here is to outgrapple Lauzon for at least 2 out of 3 rounds or to catch him in a sub and I just don't think either are likely scenarios. I think if it hits the floor it's a fun scramblefest that goes both ways but otherwise Lauzon pieces him up in the clinch and on the feet. Lauzon just has more clear paths to victory and that's why I have him capped as a slight fav and see value at evens.

I know Held is only 24 but I think people are overrating him and need to relax a little. People act like he's the lightweight Maia when he's not. I don't even see why they've given him another savvy vet when he's just lost to a lower ranked one (sure, eleveation or whatever... but like JB said he still showed questionable fight IQ) and is only 24... Why not give him an easy fight and build him up?

 

[Buddy Brown]

I'm not going huge on Lauzon or anything, I haven't even bet him yet... I just have him capped as a slight fav when taking all things into consideration. Maybe he'll not show up and not do anything like vs Dunham (he actually did have a broken hand in that fight) or maybe he'll make a mistake on the ground... but I think he's good and savvy enough to at least hang with Held on the ground and do more to win rounds overall.

 

[Oblivian]

Let's not bring in sub losses from 2010 into account when talking about this fight. The last time he got subbed was 2010, last time before that was 2006.

The only paths to victory I see for Held here is to outgrapple Lauzon for at least 2 out of 3 rounds or to catch him in a sub and I just don't think either are likely scenarios. I think if it hits the floor it's a fun scramblefest that goes both ways but otherwise Lauzon pieces him up in the clinch and on the feet. Lauzon just has more clear paths to victory and that's why I have him capped as a slight fav and see value at evens.

I know Held is only 24 but I think people are overrating him and need to relax a little. People act like he's the lightweight Maia when he's not. I don't even see why they've given him another savvy vet when he's just lost to a lower ranked one (sure, eleveation or whatever... but like JB said he still showed terrible fight IQ) and is only 24... Why not give him an easy fight and build him up?

The only reason I brought up that sub loss was to explain how people often talk about Lauzon as if he's this outstanding grappler. This has been going on forever.

I understand the way you are seeing it. I just think a lot of this can end up a grappling exchange and slightly favor Held there. I think Lauzon is definitely more dangerous standing, but I don't think his standup is really far ahead of Held either. I'm thinking this is likely a close decision either way to be honest.

 

[Oblivian]

I haven't bet this either and could actually end up on Lauzon if he ends up underdog.

 

[Buddy Brown]

The only reason I brought up that sub loss was to explain how people often talk about Lauzon as if he's this outstanding grappler. This has been going on forever.

I understand the way you are seeing it. I just think a lot of this can end up a grappling exchange and slightly favor Held there. I think Lauzon is definitely more dangerous standing, but I don't think his standup is really far ahead of Held either. I'm thinking this is likely a close decision either way to be honest.

I can see your side too which is the reason I only cap Lauzon as a slight fav. I just think at the end of the day Held isn't bringing something to the table that Lauzon hasn't seen before, and Lauzon is far more well rounded and can do more to win rounds. The fighters that have given Lauzon trouble are great strikers with power, not grapplers or leg lock specialists. We'll see what happens though.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Lauzon is not exactly Mr. Dependable. Someone on here was talking about watching tape of him vs. Dunham and thinking Lauzon was injured, but that's been a history with Lauzon. Sometimes he just looks really flat.

Agreed, but I think style plays a factor when he looks lost + i've been pretty impressed with his last two fights. Held is a lot more similar to Diego and Miller than Dunham or MJ

 

[Oblivian]

Agreed, but I think style plays a factor when he looks lost + i've been pretty impressed with his last two fights. Held is a lot more similar to Diego and Miller than Dunham or MJ

Held isn't really similar to all four honestly. We really haven't seen Lauzon in a fight that is mainly grappling with scrambles.

FWIW, I would have been all over Lauzon if he fought Held back in early 2015. I think Held showed A LOT of improvement since then especially vs. Sarnavskiy and Jansen. He can outposition and grapplefuck a lot more than people give him credit for.

I definitely don't think he showed his best stuff vs. Diego, but that was expected. I think most of us were on Diego. You have Held coming into a debut as co-main event against Diego who pushes a crazy pace without gassing in Mexico City. I think it was a recipe for disaster for him.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Held isn't really similar to all four honestly. We really haven't seen Lauzon in a fight that is mainly grappling with scrambles.

FWIW, I would have been all over Lauzon if he fought Held back in early 2015. I think Held showed A LOT of improvement since then especially vs. Sarnavskiy and Jansen. He can outposition and grapplefuck a lot more than people give him credit for.

I definitely don't think he showed his best stuff vs. Diego, but that was expected. I think most of us were on Diego. You have Held coming into a debut as co-main event against Diego who pushes a crazy pace without gassing in Mexico City. I think it was a recipe for disaster for him.

I'm not as convinced as you and others who see this as a scramble heavy fight. I can easily see a majority of this fight being striking, especially after round 1 if Held fails on subs and wrestling and/or slows down.

A lot of people were def on Held in that one from what I remember, at least half the section. But either way doesn't matter now.

fwiw I think two of the biggest factors of this match up are not getting any discussion, and thats fight IQ and savagery. I think Lauzon has those in spades over Held. Idc how gassed Lauzon is, you will never see him basically give up a fight the way Held did in round 3 vs Diego

 

[Agent Mulder]

Finally decided to take the day off from work on monday! Time to start capping this card!

 

[vkram]

Nina said that she had a knee surgery on the UFC Unfiltered podcast, not sure how long that put her out for.

 

[cCrown]

for what it's worth, brendan schaub's picks:

-pettis-moraga no prediction
-saunders finish
-lauzon decision
-penn submission

 

[Sham5916910]

Whos tito picking. His 50k nunes bet was awesome