UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[Belgrade]

This is going to be an interesting card...not often are we all on the same fighters!

Klose, Martin, Lyberger/Ansaroff Over 2.5 early on will all be pretty big for me. I have some on Christensen but he's 38 and this will end up being a SLOPPY striking fest with Bojan maybe snagging a few TD's. I tried hard to avoid betting this card but couldn't help myself. I'm a bit nervous which is rare but feel pretty confident about each match-up.
Most worried about Alex Whites stick and move up but if Martin is tenacious with the TD this is his fight to lose. Hopefully White will start to wing punches wildly like he always does and Martin either hits a reactive explosive double leg or drags him to the floor with his powerful clinch/body-lock game. From there it'll be the beginning of the end for White.

I truly think I can beat Powell in a fight and feel comfortable that two 115 pound girls with lots of heart wont be able to put each-others lights out.

After the big three I expect to sit back, relax and watch a few Hail Mary parlays fall into place.

 

[Buddy Brown]

This is going to be an interesting card...not often are we all on the same fighters!

Klose, Martin, Lyberger/Ansaroff Over 2.5 early on will all be pretty big for me. I have some on Christensen but he's 38 and this will end up being a SLOPPY striking fest with Bojan maybe snagging a few TD's. I tried hard to avoid betting this card but couldn't help myself. I'm a bit nervous which is rare but feel pretty confident about each match-up.
Most worried about Alex Whites stick and move up but if Martin is tenacious with the TD this is his fight to lose. Hopefully White will start to wing punches wildly like he always does and Martin either hits a reactive explosive double leg or drags him to the floor with his powerful clinch/body-lock game. From there it'll be the beginning of the end for White.

I truly think I can beat Powell in a fight and feel comfortable that two 115 pound girls with lots of heart wont be able to put each-others lights out.

After the big three I expect to sit back, relax and watch a few Hail Mary parlays fall into place.

Are you worried about Martin gassing again? Especially after the layoff?

 

[Belgrade]

Are you worried about Martin gassing again? Especially after the layoff?

He showed a good gas tank in his last fight and the neck surgery has helped him tremendously in maintaining a high intensity throughout his camp. I know this has already been brought up but Martin would literally stop training for weeks at a time because he would lose feeling in his arms before his fights. In a few interviews he's brought up how he can't wait to go 100% full steam for the full three rounds.

He has taken a fair amount of short notice fights or ones in Brazil which could of contributed to his gas tank. He's coming in to this fight healthy and with a full camp. Alex White is the one coming in on short notice and I don't believe he's had the time to prepare for someone of Martins size and wrestling.

Guys Martin cuts from a lean 200 pounds at times..ive seen it in the flesh and cannot believe my eyes every time the scale read 156.
White is used to fighting the bottom tier featherweight division and LOSING (Martins and Collard). Lobov was countering him nicely in the first round before White landed a good shot and secured a take-down.

Martin has been working with Rob Fonts boxing coach Eddie Alvarez diligently for this one as well has sparring with a couple high level undefeated boxers. White comes from an unknown camp and will have to deal with ALOT of new things in the fight. Martin has consistently faced much better fighters than White in both the gym and in the octagon so the confidence he's been showing is well warranted.

I kind of agree. @Belgrade with his insider info and always draining 5d of their funds is my biggest worry tbh lol but I think I might end up on White dec at +400

White dec +400 is a perfect hedge for me. After sleeping on it for awhile I also agree Martin is too steep at -300 even though i'm a big fan. But at the current odds he's still the right lean in my opinion.
Look at the beautiful reactive take-down he hit on Camoes, technical clinch judo sweep he landed on Rashid (his TD defense is among the top in the lightweight division). White will not be ready for the strength of Martin and won't have the reach that he's used to. He has a path to victory but will have to execute the perfect game plan and hope Martin makes some mistakes along the way.

 

[Buddy Brown]

When you're going over 2 you're giving bookies an advantage and pissing away any value you might have had. Not trying to be a dick but this isn't just my opinion it's a well known fact. Track them for a year.

Just to clarify the above post, I'm not shitting on people doing hail mary parlays or 4+ teamers for fun. Nothing wrong with that. I do hail marys myself sometimes just to make other fights I've not bet on properly fun to watch, but only with small stakes I don't care about losing. The real stakes (1u+) go on singles, or I'll do 2 teamers every now and then.

I'm just saying don't expect to make money long term from them. Sure you could get lucky but bookies want you to do them for a reason and that's because you're giving them a huge edge and advantage over you and pissing the value away.

Parlays (over 2-3 teamers) = entertainment expense
Singles (maybe 2 teamers if you know what you're doing) = long term money makers. Just a fact.

 

[Buddy Brown]

He showed a good gas tank in his last fight and the neck surgery has helped him tremendously in maintaining a high intensity throughout his camp. I know this has already been brought up but Martin would literally stop training for weeks at a time because he would lose feeling in his arms before his fights. In a few interviews he's brought up how he can't wait to go 100% full steam for the full three rounds.

He has taken a fair amount of short notice fights or ones in Brazil which could of contributed to his gas tank. He's coming in to this fight healthy and with a full camp. Alex White is the one coming in on short notice and I don't believe he's had the time to prepare for someone of Martins size and wrestling.

Guys Martin cuts from a lean 200 pounds at times..ive seen it in the flesh and cannot believe my eyes every time the scale read 156.
White is used to fighting the bottom tier featherweight division and LOSING (Martins and Collard). Lobov was countering him nicely in the first round before White landed a good shot and secured a take-down.

Martin has been working with Rob Fonts boxing coach Eddie Alvarez diligently for this one as well has sparring with a couple high level undefeated boxers. White comes from an unknown camp and will have to deal with ALOT of new things in the fight. Martin has consistently faced much better fighters than White in both the gym and in the octagon so the confidence he's been showing is well warranted.



White dec +400 is a perfect hedge for me. After sleeping on it for awhile I also agree Martin is too steep at -300 even though i'm a big fan. But at the current odds he's still the right lean in my opinion.
Look at the beautiful reactive take-down he hit on Camoes, technical clinch judo sweep he landed on Rashid (his TD defense is among the top in the lightweight division). White will not be ready for the strength of Martin and won't have the reach that he's used to. He has a path to victory but will have to execute the perfect game plan and hope Martin makes some mistakes along the way.

Interviews mean nothing. BJ said he felt better than ever before his last fight.

Neck surgery requires a long recovery, I find it hard to believe he's automatically 100%.

A brutal cut like that isn't a good thing and is probably another factor in his bad cardio.

With all due respect I think you're being a bit biased since you know Martin. Sparring with high level boxers isn't going to fix his stiff striking and bad striking defense in a year. His grappling is good but his wrestling is mediocre. Also you can say the bad cardio is due to short notice fights but it's been a clear problem for him throughout his career, not just in a select few.

I guess we'll see how it plays out but let's be honest +240 on White is outrageous.

 

[P4p Islam]

Just to clarify the above post, I'm not shitting on people doing hail mary parlays or 4+ teamers for fun. Nothing wrong with that. I do hail marys myself sometimes just to make other fights I've not bet on properly fun to watch, but only with small stakes I don't care about losing. The real stakes (1u+) go on singles, or I'll do 2 teamers every now and then.

I'm just saying don't expect to make money long term from them. Sure you could get lucky but bookies want you to do them for a reason and that's because you're giving them a huge edge and advantage over you and pissing the value away.

Parlays (over 2-3 teamers) = entertainment expense
Singles (maybe 2 teamers if you know what you're doing) = long term money makers. Just a fact.

I take no offense to yours or anybody elses choices/criticisms/opinions/methods. I was just trying to make a semi-counterpoint to your point about bigger parlays being for rookies. I'm a humble gambler, so I don't like to brag about my winnings or losses. All I will say is that I've won way more than I've lost, and I don't think of myself as a rookie. I do get your point though and I agree with it for the most part. Like I said before, it's all about the knowledge you have to make educated picks


No feelings were hurt in the discussion

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Just put a bet on Christensen + Klose. Actaully feel really gross about it now, goes completely against my betting morals but I couldn't resist. Bojan and Powell begging to be faded. Already regretting it, on a better card I wouldn't even consider a play like this.

 

[Belgrade]

Interviews mean nothing. BJ said he felt better than ever before his last fight.

Neck surgery requires a long recovery, I find it hard to believe he's automatically 100%.

A brutal cut like that isn't a good thing and is probably another factor in his bad cardio.

With all due respect I think you're being a bit biased since you know Martin. Sparring with high level boxers isn't going to fix his stiff striking and bad striking defense in a year. His grappling is good but his wrestling is mediocre. Also you can say the bad cardio is due to short notice fights but it's been a clear problem for him throughout his career, not just in a select few.

I guess we'll see how it plays out but let's be honest +240 on White is outrageous.

True you can't read too much into interviews but I think it provides some interesting insight.

He's taken a year off and has been sparring and training full blast for awhile. If anything he's much better condition now than he was before the fight. Tony Ferguson has a giant cut and his gas tank is great. He had a full camp and kept up a high pace for all three with last fight. A fighters last fight is the best indicator for the type of shape they are in. His Leo fight that was almost 2 years ago was short notice, in Brazil, and he won the first round. The second round he didn't even necessarily slow much if at all. He just got tripped by Leo Santos and got finished on the ground. Saying Martin will for sure gas out in this fight is a bit of a stretch..

I may be a little bit biased but think that gives me access to information that other people may not know so it balances out.

It may not fix all your problems but you certainly will adapt in minor ways to the sparring so that when fight time comes you'll be much more comfortable which is a priceless thing to have. He took down nearly everybody he's fought, his wrestling is at a high level and dynamic meaning he can just as easily hit take-downs from the cage or middle of the octagon. All I know is that Martin has taken down much better guys than White while White has been taken down by CLAY FREAKING COLLARD.

You may have a point if Martin had to get numerous take-downs per round and lay n pray to win this fight but I fully believe it will be a one and done type of deal. Martin's top game is among the scariest in the division and I promise you White will not have an answer for it if he ends up on his back in this fight.

+240 is a bit steep but on 5dimes you can get Martin for -225 which is not bad given the match-up.

 

[Belgrade]

Just put a bet on Christensen + Klose. Actaully feel really gross about it now, goes completely against my betting morals but I couldn't resist. Bojan and Powell begging to be faded. Already regretting it, on a better card I wouldn't even consider a play like this.

Maybe Christensen is sketch but why are you worried about Klose? Klose can win this one any where he wants.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Maybe Christensen is sketch but why are you worried about Klose? Klose can win this one any where he wants.

Yeah I am more worried about Christensen but Klose could have some problems too. Inexperience, UFC debut and short notice. Thankfully his opponent is a can.

 

[Belgrade]

Yeah I am more worried about Christensen but Klose could have some problems too. Inexperience, UFC debut and short notice. Thankfully his opponent is a can.

Exactly! Klose was staying ready in case he had to jump in and actually fought pretty recently so I think he'll be fine in that area. I'd be shocked if Powell won and might just have to quit my current job and start my MMA career back up again haha.

 

[HeDucking]

Some of these guys dont even deserve to be in the UFC let alone be parlayed up.

Lauzon as the dog is gonna be the play here if the line follows the trend it has been going in. BJ's odds arent at the +4xx I wouldve liked.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Exactly! Klose was staying ready in case he had to jump in and actually fought pretty recently so I think he'll be fine in that area. I'd be shocked if Powell won and might just have to quit my current job and start my MMA career back up again haha.

Yeah I like that Klose trains at the Lab, heard he was helping Benson and Holtzman in camp so he's apparently in good shape but I'd still prefer a full camp not one weeks notice. Powell is very unathletic has no TDD, little worried about the triangles and head kicks but only because he attacks with them so much not because he's good at them.

Christensen getting cage pushed and taken down is a bigger concern though.

 

[Joseph Budden]

 

[fightfan2355]

Just put a bet on Christensen + Klose. Actaully feel really gross about it now, goes completely against my betting morals but I couldn't resist. Bojan and Powell begging to be faded. Already regretting it, on a better card I wouldn't even consider a play like this.

Christensen looked damn good in his last fight vs da Silva until the end of the 2nd round.
I've been thinking about making the same bet...... and now i'm pulling the trigger.

Fox one!

 

[Joseph Budden]

Vivisection been lurking on Sham's posts, talking about Bojan looking like a 1995 fighter

 

[Joseph Budden]

Zane thinks Powell is worth a small bet
Both think White is worth a small bet

Interesting

 

[Stunna77]

If Martin's healthy and fixed the cardio issue he should handle white pretty convincingly. It essentially comes down to if you believe those two things or not imo.

 

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