UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[Buddy Brown]

Omg Ansaroff nsc -127

Down from -280, which was way more accurate

Yeah that'd be a 3u bet for me at least. Jealous.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Sprinkling my lotto parlays across this card like

 

[EzFlyer]

Sprinkling my lotto parlays across this card like

what are your key legs?

 

[Rebel_LioN]

what are your key legs?

They're not super sturdy or super valuable but working with what I got, I like

Court/Saunders dec -160
Tony Martin -175

Dog legs:

Saenz +150
Martin -3.5 +110
Not Yair ITD +150/+110ish

There are some others out there but they've exceeded the -200 limit but I mean, the girl fight going over with Nina only being able to finish. I think Pettis/Moraga goes over with Moraga guillotine being the only scare. And I also like Lauzon but this is a highly debated fight I won't mention it. That Powell guy looks bad.

I kinda skipped all the heavy set guys and focused on trying to hit overs on 115-170 lb fighters I think a lot goes over.

Yours?

 

[vkram]

Bookie Beatdown shat all over Sergio Pettis. Said that Dustin Ortiz is much more talented than him and that he hasn't improved at all. Don't think I agree at all.

 

[EzFlyer]

They're not super sturdy or super valuable but working with what I got, I like

Court/Saunders dec -160
Tony Martin -175

Dog legs:

Saenz +150
Martin -3.5 +110
Not Yair ITD +150/+110ish

There are some others out there but they've exceeded the -200 limit but I mean, the girl fight going over with Nina only being able to finish. I think Pettis/Moraga goes over with Moraga guillotine being the only scare. And I also like Lauzon but this is a highly debated fight I won't mention it.

I kinda skipped all the heavy set guys and focused on trying to hit overs on 115-170 lb fighters I think a lot goes over.

Yours?

thx -- i'm assuming you meant saenz dec

and i only have 1 RR right now. (in bets thread, it's very small) just curious what your key leans / legs were, might follow suit on a couple things, TBD

 

[Buddy Brown]

Sprinkling my lotto parlays across this card like

Seen this lame ass meme everywhere

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Seen this lame ass meme everywhere

I think dude's hilarious lmao. That's how I'm doin my shit from now on.

But the memes of it aren't that great lol.

 

[Buddy Brown]

I think dude's hilarious lmao. That's how I'm doin my shit from now on.

But the memes of it aren't that great lol.

I just hate it when something stupid like a man sprinkling salt becomes a meme no one shuts the fuck up about for months

Worst one recently was "damn Daniel" which was literally just some weird kid saying "damn Daniel" at another kid wearing white vans. HILARIOUS! The kid even got invited on Ellen for it... Wtf? Maybe I'm just getting old

 

[AffectEffect]

Omg Ansaroff nsc -127

Down from -280, which was way more accurate

I love that line. I actually think there is a decent chance ansaroff can stop her, kish ate some bombs from ansaroff + Ansaroffs last 5 wins were stoppages. Logic follows that since Ansaroff has to face Nunes with a strap on everynight, her cardio/durability has to be high.

 

[EzFlyer]

I love that line. I actually think there is a decent chance ansaroff can stop her, kish ate some bombs from ansaroff + Ansaroffs last 5 wins were stoppages. Logic follows that since Ansaroff has to face Nunes with a strap on everynight, her cardio/durability has to be high.

yep, scary having nina as one of my bigger plays, but playing what i think is a good #.

hi, btw...

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I lean on Saenz because he's more experienced in MMA. I don't trust high level BJJ guys to "get it" right away and UFC is doing this guy's career some injustice so far by not putting him against some rookies.

Saenz has the savvier striking and bounces a lot and won't stand directly in front of Mendes who looks like a plodder.

Saenz hits some really nice inside leg kicks that not a lot of people are good at. Mendes heavy on front foot I could see getting chopped and flopping to his back Werdum-esque.

Being that they'll be at kicking range a lot cuz Mendes looks like a kicker there may be ample space for Saenz to react on poor shot attempts.

I'm well aware though if Mendes puts old man Saenz on his back it could probably end him but at close odds I think the bet goes to Saenz. Another theory that could go wrong is that Saenz has always had the threat of a TD to aid his overall game but what happens when he TD a BJJ world champ? Saenz loses the advantage of his TD threat in this match up. It's kindve a bad match up for Frankie if you think about it. But given how he handled Faber I have a bit of confidence that he can adjust.

I believe those are the two sides to the coin with this fight.

 

[AffectEffect]

Asker is slow and hittable but got a good chin.
Smoliakov could sort of gas but maintain the win.
How do you guys see Smoliakov dec @ 7.00?

I don't like it. Smoly is a Bruteish amateur with little technique. He could land a big punch or a big takedown/gnp early imo sure, asker is a smallish hw, who just got koed. But the guy I saw fight henrique had zero heart, couldn't take any sort of pressure, gassed and Insta tapped the second he got put in a sub.

Asker sub +500 for me.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

I just hate it when something stupid like a man sprinkling salt becomes a meme no one shuts the fuck up about for months

Worst one recently was "damn Daniel" which was literally just some weird kid saying "damn Daniel" at another kid wearing white vans. HILARIOUS! The kid even got invited on Ellen for it... Wtf? Maybe I'm just getting old

When there are bad memes out during times like these you needa hit the gym and get your ass off da gram playa

 

[LEMONZEST]

I just hate it when something stupid like a man sprinkling salt becomes a meme no one shuts the fuck up about for months

Worst one recently was "damn Daniel" which was literally just some weird kid saying "damn Daniel" at another kid wearing white vans. HILARIOUS! The kid even got invited on Ellen for it... Wtf? Maybe I'm just getting old

High brow meme connoisseur itt

 

[AffectEffect]

@Rebel_LioN

I have been going back and forth on Saenz vs tanquino. I'll play devil's advocate.

What has Saenz ever really done? A split Dec over kakai isn't looking like a big accolade now. Ticman w is nothing special. He was losing to alcantara until alcantara alcanatared. Then he put up a fight and lost vs a retiree and had zero ability to make adjustments vs wineland. I mean I get it, he made me a lot vs alcantara and that is a rosey memory, but I don't think the dude is very trustworthy, and his last performance was pretty bad.

On paper this could be a bad matchup for him, Tanquino even tho he hasn't shown it, is a Top shelf grappler. He has had great matches with some of the GOATS, he is considered top 3 in one of the hardest weight classes in BJJ, having to go against Rafa Mendes or Cobrinha regularly. And as we know Saenz gets in a lot of scrambles he is basically a weak volume striker with a wrestling game. If he gets his back taken like his did vs alcantara, very good chance Tanquino gets a sub there.

 

[AffectEffect]

yep, scary having nina as one of my bigger plays, but playing what i think is a good #.

hi, btw...

Hey hermano, Happy New year.

Yeah it's a weird card for sure when ansaroff is one of the strongest leans. My irrational fear of wmma is slightly lessened by my irrational belief that she is getting an easy matchup here because she is scissoring a champion.

 

[Buddy Brown]

High brow meme connoisseur itt

Back in my day, memes meant something.

 

[Buddy Brown]

@Rebel_LioN

I have been going back and forth on Saenz vs tanquino. I'll play devil's advocate.

What has Saenz ever really done? A split Dec over kakai isn't looking like a big accolade now. Ticman w is nothing special. He was losing to alcantara until alcantara alcanatared. Then he put up a fight and lost vs a retiree and had zero ability to make adjustments vs wineland. I mean I get it, he made me a lot vs alcantara and that is a rosey memory, but I don't think the dude is very trustworthy, and his last performance was pretty bad.

On paper this could be a bad matchup for him, Tanquino even tho he hasn't shown it, is a Top shelf grappler. He has had great matches with some of the GOATS, he is considered top 3 in one of the hardest weight classes in BJJ, having to go against Rafa Mendes or Cobrinha regularly. And as we know Saenz gets in a lot of scrambles he is basically a weak volume striker with a wrestling game. If he gets his back taken like his did vs alcantara, very good chance Tanquino gets a sub there.

People are playing Saenz because he's facing a grappler with no wrestling or striking, and Saenz should be able to keep it on the feet with his D1 wrestling chops. Pass for me though.

 

[Buddy Brown]

BJ should be working in sales instead of fighting. His ability to sell something that isnt there to people (in this case his ability to still fight at the top level) is outstanding.