UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

[Buddy Brown]

BJ is the best at making people think he's back.

I'll live bet him if I can actually see him look good.

 

[Ukram]

Asker is slow and hittable but got a good chin.
Smoliakov could sort of gas but maintain the win.
How do you guys see Smoliakov dec @ 7.00?

Dmitry has never gone decision in his career, apart from his ufc fight all his fights lasted less then 5 minutes and ended in r1, maybe worth a flyer since you never know.

I like Dmitry r1 and maybe Asker decision flyer, if Dmitry gasses again in end of r1 asker could take over but its a tough fight with 2 hws which may not belong in ufc.

 

[Sham5916910]

I'm not. He hasn't won a fight in 7 years and said he shouldn't have come back just 2 years ago.

Wouldn't be surprised if Yair got caught after making a mistake or being wreckless but wouldn't put more than 0.5u on it

If he looks good early I'll just live bet then hedge if he gasses I think.

If im up big by bj time i will throw a decent amount on him

 

[Rasdun]

Havent posted my plays in a while, got 7 units on Sergio, i think he's improving alot on his wrestling, to me his earlier losses were him just being way too green for the ufc, i can definitely see the improvement from him with each fight specially in his wrestling, Moraga was a guy who was hesistant vs Nicolau, if he doesnt bring him here he is gonna lose badly he's also on 16 days notice.

1 unit on Held, Lauzon's striking is horrid, he got lucky vs diego and the wheels can fall off anytime now, i think Held gassed badly due to the alittude and it will be a different fighter now.

7u? u think his line is off that much? what do you cap him at?

 

[Buddy Brown]

"This is the end. I'm sitting here thinking to myself why did you step back in the octagon after the beating Rory MacDonald gave to you, and the reason is if I didn't make this fight happen for myself, I would have always wondered, went back and forth and begged Dana to get back in. I needed closure."

"I always kicked myself in the butt, telling people I could have done it again... But now I know I can't."

"You need a high level of energy to compete in this sport, and I just don't have it. The sport has passed me by"

"My legacy is just in highlight reels now *breaks down crying*"

 

[Rasdun]

I just dont see BJ winning a decision, he hasnt won in the octagon since 2010, he is a 100 years old and I just dont believe in his abolity to gameplan enough to win...

the more I thought about it, I think you're right. was just mulling it over and thinking out loud

 

[Rasdun]

Regarding Lauzon/Held: I would say that the line was probably set about right with Joe as a slight favorite if Held were to use all his skills like I saw in Bellator and he tried to strike and set up takedowns and didn't just go for the leg lock like he did in his recent UFC debut against Diego. But the reality is that he did try that awful gameplan and didn't adjust, plus he gassed- although that was partially attributable to the Mexico City elevation. J-Lau on the other hand looked really good in his last couple of fights despite losing the contentious decision to Jim Miller. So my thinking is- how can one back Held even as a slight underdog if he needs to fight completely differently than his last fight in the UFC and show much better cardio? That's a big leap of faith- two leaps of faith actually. So with a fairly close line this is a favorite or pass for me. And since I'm too degen to pass, I'm making a decent sized bet on Joe Lauzon. If Held proves me wrong then hopefully I can live bet my way out of it.

Bc you can't only judge Held on his last fight. He has enough of a resume from his fights in Bellator to indicate that he can do a lot more than dive for leg locks. plus Lauzon is shopworn. You may be right, but I can't see playing Lauzon as a favorite here

 

[wack3d]

Penn still +380 @ betsafe if anyone did not bet the GOAT yet

also unibet have Penn to win in R1 or R2 +1000

 

[Cord]

Smoliakov KO in R1 at 5.50.

Penn sub in R1 at 15.00.
If he wins, that's gonna be it, imagine Rodriguez finishing on his butt after an early aggressive crazy flying kick of his.

Penn KO in R1 at 29.00.
Same scenario, if Penn goes for one of his flamboyant fast victories.

Strong hedging if you bet on Asker / Rodriguez.

 

[pytycrys]

Hi guys. New here, take me easy, but this is my unpopular opinion.
Penn is there just for the paycheck. He said it himself, he needs to make a living.
I don't want to lower your expectations, guys, he was a great fighter, but time has passed over him. He hasn't shown anything in the last seven years. I don't think it's smart to go nuts just because of a few declarations meant to hype people up.
On the betting part, I dropped a unit yesterday on Lybarger @ 2.60 at Marathonbet. I do not consider her to be way better, but that line was too much. It should be evens imo.
Also, a parlay on the card that I have is Martin, Christensen and Klose.
Good luck to us all!

 

[Buddy Brown]

Hi guys. New here, take me easy, but this is my unpopular opinion.
Penn is there just for the paycheck. He said it himself, he needs to make a living.
I don't want to lower your expectations, guys, he was a great fighter, but time has passed over him. He hasn't shown anything in the last seven years. I don't think it's smart to go nuts just because of a few declarations meant to hype people up.

Not an an unpopular opinion, it's just sentimental people betting BJ. The same thing happened last time he came back.

BJ's only hope is an early Yair mistake. There's not enough reasons to bet on him.

 

[EzFlyer]

Moraga nsc down to -121, And i can't figure out why... he's only been finished by mightymouse in rd 5 to my knowledge...

All of pettis' wins in the ufc are decisions..

I'm alrdy on pettis to win a unit but I'm playing moraga nsc, anyway. He's the much more likely finisher, even if I do think it goes 3 more often than not.

Moraga Rd 3 +1575 stab, too.

 

[vkram]

Hi guys. New here, take me easy, but this is my unpopular opinion.
Penn is there just for the paycheck. He said it himself, he needs to make a living.
I don't want to lower your expectations, guys, he was a great fighter, but time has passed over him. He hasn't shown anything in the last seven years. I don't think it's smart to go nuts just because of a few declarations meant to hype people up.
On the betting part, I dropped a unit yesterday on Lybarger @ 2.60 at Marathonbet. I do not consider her to be way better, but that line was too much. It should be evens imo.
Also, a parlay on the card that I have is Martin, Christensen and Klose.
Good luck to us all!

Penn comes from one of the richest families in Hawaii, money was never an issue for him. Although I do agree that he hasn't looked good in a long while.

 

[Buddy Brown]

Wish I could play Lauzon NSC @ evens. 25 finishes in 26 wins wouldn't be surprised if he cracked Held or finished him late. Plus Held has no power and I doubt he gets a sub

 

[Stunna77]

I put .5u on BJ and will probably put .25u or a little less on his sub line. I am certainly not advocating a bet on him as it is a total gamble on what he will look like, but Yair is certainly not in the same tier as everyone BJ fought before retiring. Buddy is right though a big part of me is wanting Penn to look good. If he wasn't one of my favorite fighters I probably wouldn't play him.

 

[PuertoRican]

thought there was a few montioned itt but it might have just been some media picking him

As far as I know, we don't have any touts in this thread.

If you see any touts, report them, as we don't need them itt.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Bc you can't only judge Held on his last fight. He has enough of a resume from his fights in Bellator to indicate that he can do a lot more than dive for leg locks. plus Lauzon is shopworn. You may be right, but I can't see playing Lauzon as a favorite here

Enlighten me on what else he's done on his resume cuz I didn't watch his Bellator fights live. When I typed his name in YouTube the first video was him dropping Nate Jolly with a knee and then he runs towards him and slips on a banana peel.

Not an an unpopular opinion, it's just sentimental people betting BJ. The same thing happened last time he came back.

BJ's only hope is an early Yair mistake. There's not enough reasons to bet on him.

There's only 1 reason you need: +400.

Unless you wanna bet on Yair instead and buy yourself a happy meal with a toy with the money you earned.

And it's the last fight on the card, just punt your money on him depending how your night is going.

 

[Agent Mulder]

BJ/Yair goes to dec +255 on betsafe. Already big on O2.5 but fuck it, im hitting that one as well for 0.66u.

 

[PuertoRican]

Enlighten me on what else he's done on his resume cuz I didn't watch his Bellator fights live. When I typed his name in YouTube the first video was him dropping Nate Jolly with a knee and then he runs towards him and slips on a banana peel.

Held's Bellator fights are at Bellator.com.

Google: Marcin Held vs. Dave Jansen, etc. All of the Bellator.com fights are in HD.

 

[Buddy Brown]

Enlighten me on what else he's done on his resume cuz I didn't watch his Bellator fights live. When I typed his name in YouTube the first video was him dropping Nate Jolly with a knee and then he runs towards him and slips on a banana peel.



There's only 1 reason you need: +400.

Unless you wanna bet on Yair instead and buy yourself a happy meal with a toy with the money you earned.

And it's the last fight on the card, just punt your money on him depending how your night is going.

Did I say I'm betting Yair? No

He's +400 because he SHOULD be +400. He hasn't won in 7 years and cried saying he doesn't have it anymore after getting smashed and embarrassed 2 YEARS ago.

I never "punt" anyway. That's not sharp. If I'm up by the main event I'm not going to give profit away with a guess. I'll just live bet if I see a valuable opportunity.