UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

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Gonna be on Caraway and Lauzon unless someone makes a compelling argument against one of them. Why did odds drop on Lauzon? I'd figure he would be the one people bet on here
 
iGnP said:
Gonna be on Caraway and Lauzon unless someone makes a compelling argument against one of them. Why did odds drop on Lauzon? I'd figure he would be the one people bet on here
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i agree with you about lauzon but intrigued to hear your reasoning behind caraway.
 
piglord said:
i agree with you about lauzon but intrigued to hear your reasoning behind caraway.
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I'd say easy. He beats guys that most think he shouldn't. He wins ugly. But wins
 
piglord said:
i agree with you about lauzon but intrigued to hear your reasoning behind caraway.
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I think very highly of Rivera but I'd rather not play him unless his decision odds are great. Just too much juice against a guy that is gritty and makes the fights ugly. I wouldn't be big on Caraway, though
 
I don't really see how Caraway wins here. Rivera has solid TDD defence and a pretty significant advantage on the feet. He won't try to take Caraway down like Aljo did.
 
Wineland same thing. Caraway won
 
vkram said:
I don't really see how Caraway wins here. Rivera has solid TDD defence and a pretty significant advantage on the feet. He won't try to take Caraway down like Aljo did.
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Who has Rivera defended takedowns against besides a gunshy, desperate and telegraphing Faber?
 
Buddy Brown said:
Who has Rivera defended takedowns against besides a gunshy, desperate and telegraphing Faber?
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Defended 4/4 vs Faber and 7/7 vs Alcantara. Caraway is a very dogged wrestler but I think Rivera's footwork and takedown ability will be enough to keep it standing. Rivera's build is also very useful for defending takedowns.
 
I think Rivera wins but I prefer to just play the over. I think it could be made close depending on how Caraway gets his grind on.
 
SBJJ said:
Wineland same thing. Caraway won
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wineland was coming off a hideous jaw injury and a long layoff, he started slow in that fight if i remember rightly. wineland is a lot more unorthodox than rivera, and with all those feints and looking for the right shots he can have long periods of low output.

i don't see caraway getting the better of rivera in the standup and i definitely don't see him scoring takedowns (caraway does have very legit jiujitsu if he's somehow able to get it to the mat though). i think rivera shrugs off shots and beats caraway up.
 
piglord said:
wineland was coming off a hideous jaw injury and a long layoff, he started slow in that fight if i remember rightly. wineland is a lot more unorthodox than rivera, and with all those feints and looking for the right shots he can have long periods of low output.

i don't see caraway getting the better of rivera in the standup and i definitely don't see him scoring takedowns (caraway does have very legit jiujitsu if he's somehow able to get it to the mat though). i think rivera shrugs off shots and beats caraway up.
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Thats pretty much my assessment as well. Rivera strikes at quite a high rate in comparison to Wineland who is more of a one shot guy.
 
Happy new year everybody. May 2017 look upon your bankrolls with fortune.
 
Buddy Brown said:
Everyone and their grandma are loading up on Rivera @ that silly price right now. Not me.


My guess is Rivera + Yair.
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Incorrect ha! Well Rivera is correct but im waiting for odds on the other fights before saying.
 
Rivera @ + odds against faber on betsafe was my line of 2016 even -130 where he was elsewhere was awesome. Obviously the books have cottoned on now but i still like him as a parlay piece.
 
Rivera should be -200 at most. We'll see what his decision line looks like, but i'm not underestimating Caraway. His stand up is sneaky good and i'm not writing off his ability to get tds either.
 
Glad I threw 2.2u on Lauzon -110 as my play for that fight. Hes at -150 right now and I doubt we'll see the price I got again
 
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