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UFC Paris: Ciryl Gane vs Serghei Spivac, September 2, France

Jasper_RB81 said:
Pretty irritated with myself for missing the opening line where Moises was a dog vs Saint Denis... I was looking at it for a few days thinking I should bet it... Then when I finally decided to pull the trigger today he had flipped to the favourite.
Currently Moises sits at -120, which I still think is good value.
I think there is a bit of recency bias going on since Saint Denis handled the the Bonfim hypetrain so well, but this is not the same matchup at all. Moises is a monster on the ground and I think he can win the ground game battle. Stand-up is between two people with sub-par striking so should be fairly even.
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Not often you manage to feel like an idiot 2 times on 1 bet... regretting betting Moises as the underdog, bet him as the favourite and then he goes back to the underdog :(
 
Jasper_RB81 said:
Not often you manage to feel like an idiot 2 times on 1 bet... regretting betting Moises as the underdog, bet him as the favourite and then he goes back to the underdog :(
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Was seeing that when I was making a parlay for this card, McKee was enough dog odds for me though. Might hit Moisés' line after contender series wraps up.

Get the feeling it'll only get wider the closer we get to it thanks to the french crowd.
 
Im playing 2 units on Rose at +175, she should be the favourite. She is levels above Fiorot.
...Now she's gonna have a PTSD flashback of connor throwing dolly's and try prove again that she can win a decision with the mystic power of shadowboxing.
 
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my "Bigger bets" i like this event current odds


Gomis-140(He wins by Dec)
mckee+155(He wins by tko)
Guskov+140(He wins by tko)
 
Danis_champ said:
I'm on Benoit St Denis as well. What are some people seeing in Moises? He looked horrible vs Costa despite winning. I think Denis should be -200.
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The other thing about BDS vs Moises is that even if their skillsets are pretty similar, I want the dude that I think will fight through massive adversity if necessary. That won't quit or fold until you completely put him out. That's BDS. Moises...man I'm remembering how the second that Alvarez clipped him, he went down and turtled and got finished.
 
Gane,Volk, Jacque, Farid, Morgan are top favs.


dogs++I like Yanis , i dont see a large skill gap there. And he has more fights under his cap.
 
I feel like I'm crazy for being on Kleydson here...

I don't think Farid is on the same level as his confidence. He's well trained, but he's had tough fights and been in trouble against guys who are far under UFC level.

I think Kleydson is legit, and his worst fight was a weird one that he toughed out a decision loss to. I remember being really high on him after tape going into his DWCS fight, and thought he'd make waves going into the UFC. He had a wild first fight where I think he's better than the result, and I think he's bound to show that.

However Farid actually ends up, I think Kleydson is better than the odds have it right here, and that's my favorite pick heading into this.
 
rev0lver said:
I feel like I'm crazy for being on Kleydson here...

I don't think Farid is on the same level as his confidence. He's well trained, but he's had tough fights and been in trouble against guys who are far under UFC level.

I think Kleydson is legit, and his worst fight was a weird one that he toughed out a decision loss to. I remember being really high on him after tape going into his DWCS fight, and thought he'd make waves going into the UFC. He had a wild first fight where I think he's better than the result, and I think he's bound to show that.

However Farid actually ends up, I think Kleydson is better than the odds have it right here, and that's my favorite pick heading into this.
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I'm betting him small as well.
Probably a big dog because he's a smaller 135er but a big 125er that can't make weight.
 
I would feel very confident playing Farid vs CJ. I dont feel confident at all vs Rod. I think Rod shat the bed vs CJ but still has those fast twitch muscles. Need to see how Farid does vs guy like this before playing him.
 
sonhow said:
I would feel very confident playing Farid vs CJ. I dont feel confident at all vs Rod. I think Rod shat the bed vs CJ but still has those fast twitch muscles. Need to see how Farid does vs guy like this before playing him.
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Yup, I would play Farid all day vs CJ. But KR is a lot better than his result against CJ. There's the factor of a FLW moving up to BW, but they're both legit up and comers where KR has the skills to win.
 
No way farid covers his price. I have a unit on kelydson +250. I would expect some line movement unless everyone just continues to parlay basharat. Sharp money is going to hit at some point
 
Dont really like the style matchup for Benoit.

Benoit biggest threat are his subs. he has like 2 kos in 12 fights. and he cant sub moises. Thiago also has far better experience, he’s been in there with Islam for like 4 rounds. Won a controversial dec with Green and a 3 rounder with Beniel. He’s the clear value side. Benoit also is a part time special forces guy. Thiago is a full timer.

BSD did beat Ismail, but Ismail isn’t that established as a fighter who souly earns his living fighting, Thiago is also a better striker, he at least can put together better combinations that resemble a muay thai fighter. Benoit being the fav is due to the market inflating his worth for the Ismail fight, pre fight with ismail and Thiago is a favorite of -150
 
Stat_Collector said:
Dont really like the style matchup for Benoit.

Benoit biggest threat are his subs. he has like 2 kos in 12 fights. and he cant sub moises. Thiago also has far better experience, he’s been in there with Islam for like 4 rounds. Won a controversial dec with Green and a 3 rounder with Beniel. He’s the clear value side. Benoit also is a part time special forces guy. Thiago is a full timer.

BSD did beat Ismail, but Ismail isn’t that established as a fighter who souly earns his living fighting, Thiago is also a better striker, he at least can put together better combinations that resemble a muay thai fighter. Benoit being the fav is due to the market inflating his worth for the Ismail fight, pre fight with ismail and Thiago is a favorite of -150
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Bonfim was also coming on late and starting to take that fight over.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Dont really like the style matchup for Benoit.

Benoit biggest threat are his subs. he has like 2 kos in 12 fights. and he cant sub moises. Thiago also has far better experience, he’s been in there with Islam for like 4 rounds. Won a controversial dec with Green and a 3 rounder with Beniel. He’s the clear value side. Benoit also is a part time special forces guy. Thiago is a full timer.

BSD did beat Ismail, but Ismail isn’t that established as a fighter who souly earns his living fighting, Thiago is also a better striker, he at least can put together better combinations that resemble a muay thai fighter. Benoit being the fav is due to the market inflating his worth for the Ismail fight, pre fight with ismail and Thiago is a favorite of -150
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Crazy if Benoit still does special forces. Mad respect<Eek2.0>.

I like BSD to win decision. If Moises is to win one he needs to be much better. So much better that he shuts down the crowd. Benoit is going to come out super aggressive and Thiago cant let himself get run over. It would be super impressive if BSD subbed him though.
 
sonhow said:
Crazy if Benoit still does special forces. Mad respect<Eek2.0>.

I like BSD to win decision. If Moises is to win one he needs to be much better. So much better that he shuts down the crowd. Benoit is going to come out super aggressive and Thiago cant let himself get run over. It would be super impressive if BSD subbed him though.
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Moises the only guy that took down Islam until Volk.I would not be shocked if Thiago beats BSD in his own game. Moises is still very young. having more ufc fights means he’s had more intense training camps. more money in his preparation as well, Thiago should be earning 100k per fight by now. He’s going to have better nutrition, training partners at att in south florida. and he has a bjj gold medal in ibjff. In his bio he’s been doing bjj since age 8. while this is wiki capping. i would point out that Thiago stuffed 3 of 6 td from Islam. he’s a solid wrestler as well as a bjj player.
 
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