UFC on ESPN 7 Overeem vs Rozenstruik

[Sadistics]

Who are you on between Yana/Ladd? I want to bet Yana based on skillset and overall athleticism but I feel like Ladd might just be too physically strong and manhandle her.

I've got 400 on Kunitskaya +156 which I don't love. Hoping it looks similar to round 1 of the Lina/Ladd fight, I have no doubt Yana wins the clinch battle.

 

[Dave Henderson]

I've got 400 on Kunitskaya +156 which I don't love. Hoping it looks similar to round 1 of the Lina/Ladd fight, I have no doubt Yana wins the clinch battle.

Where did you get odds of +156 ? That's awesome. All the internet betting websites I checked were offering lower dog odds than in person at Vegas so I had to go down there. Westgate was offering +150 but they are down to +140 now.

 

[Dave Henderson]

This betting forum has attracted some weirdos/trolls in the past. This Dave is just another guy to that list.

As for the fight it's as straightforward as they come. If Ladd gets on top (and there is a very good chance she will) it's pretty much all downhill for Yana.

If you want to call me a weirdo or a troll then whatever. Younger generations. Labels labels labels. Whatever.

I wonder if you care to put your money where your mouth is on this. I guess your in agreement with the other 90% on the MMA Junkie poll who think Ladd is gonna get on top and yelp her way to another victory? That is the main thing I'm hearing people say about Ladds path to victory here. It would be like saying Dan Henderson or Roy Nelson will win against so and so - because the right hands gonna land. And both of those guys are superior well rounded fighters with many weapons in their bag of tricks - but I'm saying that to make a point that when you only have one path to victory - it's just a matter of time. From what I see in Ladds fights - she only has one path to victory here so I don't understand why 9/10 people think she's gonna win.

1) Her boxing sucks
2) Her kicks suck
3) She has no Karate base
4) Her BJJ is unproven - 1 arm bar against Bobby Can Copper after laying on punishment from top position with her center of gravity is not enough to prove good BJJ. Even Meagan Anderson could do that.
5) I'm speculating Ladd's Chin is questionable. I just read an article where Ladd seems to imply that her gymmates are implying her chin isn't all that in sparring. She is only 24 years old. The shot that GDR landed was good - to put down a 40 years old Vet with no chin. Not a 24 year old with a fresh chin.
6) Ladd is banging her coach. That must be why she is so good in top position. She practices the same thing all day. Mixing business with pleasure. That's not good - and another reason to bet against her.

The only way Ladd wins is with a lucky punch, getting top position, ref or judges robbery. This bet is screaming for more money and that's exactly what I'm gonna do right now ....

 

[Dave Henderson]

I think someone mentioned earlier that Rozenstruik will be able to land body shots on Overeem similar to what Olenik did.

Rozenstruik has attempted 0 body shots in his UFC fights. And watching Rozen vs Kovalev in RIZIN, I only spotted one jab to the body at range in a fight where he maybe threw 100 strikes or more. I think it's safe to say that Rozenstruik is a head hunter. Like Ladd kick catching, I wouldn't rely on Rozenstruik working the body at all. Again, not saying it's impossible, but I think a trap some people fall into is that they see a weakness for a fighter they want to fade, and then assume because the weakenss is so evident that the fighter they want to back will in fact attempt certain techniques to exploit it.

Maybe if you're taking a big dog and want to put that in as a potential PTV, that's fine. But with closer lined fights and favorites, it's probably a bad idea to let those assumptions affect confdience.

I'm on Overeem here, since I think he is going to try to grapple, and Rozenstruik really needs to put Overeems lights out early to win. Albini was able to get Rozen to the fence easily multiple times in a clinch and Rozen didn't seem to know what to do there, just kinda resting. It doesn't seem like he's an active clinch striker. I don't know much about his kickboxing background, but I'm guessing he didn't fight much muay thai (someone correct me on this if I'm wrong) and is used to having a ref break up clinches so he can headhunt with his boxing. People want to compare Rozen to Francis, but see how Francis actively and powerfully pushed Overeem around versus Rozen's lazy clinching versus Albini and you'll see a few big differences (size, strength, and even technique).

Well timed cilnching neutralizes boxing. We see this in muay thai all the time where good fighters get away with little head movement by just mixing clinching with a long guard and leanbacks. We saw this recently in MMA with Till/Gastelum. Of course this is heavyweight and the normal rules don't apply, but I'll take the guy with more tools whose chances of winning continually increase as time ticks away, rather than the Rd1 KO threat. For those that do like Rozenstruik to KO Overeem early, why not just pay a bit extra and get the under 1.5 rds. This line also factors in the real possibility that Overeem lands a TD and finds a finish there.

I agree with your analysis. I was leaning toward Overeem 70%. I intended to bet on Overeem but this other guy is making it look like a 50/50 bet. And I don't want to put down favorite money on a 50/50 bet. Also Overeem was KO'd by Ben Rothwell. This guy hits harder than Rothwell. Not sure if Overeem could take a punch from this guy.

 

[TrueAscension]

Rosenstruick is a very seasoned kickboxer. I’m sure body shots are not exactly difficult to slip into his repertoire.

 

[TrueAscension]

The people wishing someone to lose their bet and money, now that is incredibly bad taste.

Way different than someone bring up past results on fights, esp in a place like sherdog where people like to brag, talk like they know what they are talking about and talk shit before the fights but saying anything to anyone after the fact is a big no no? haha gtfo, that just means the person can't handle they were wrong, and talking shit before, during and after happens in any sport or event.

But to flat out wish someone loses their money, that is was what you call bad taste.

right and mindlessly insulting fighters based on their physical appearance, sounds they make, etc is in good taste...

 

[null]

If you want to call me a weirdo or a troll then whatever.

6) Ladd is banging her coach. That must be why she is so good in top position. She practices the same thing all day. Mixing business with pleasure. That's not good - and another reason to bet against her.

That's really part of your handicapping, lol?

 

[burge13]

Starting to think Dave is 160 IQ and we need to get up to his level

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

That's really part of your handicapping, lol?

I didn't know she fucked her coach till now. The more info the merrier.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Been seeing a lot of recent interviews from Rozenstruik where he's begging for the Francis matchup right after the fight he has this weekend. This clown is overlooking Overeem for some reason even though he could get folded up like a pretzel on the ground after an ez takedown, let alone the possibility of knee to his chin standing KO. These fighters typically lose when they don't focus on what's in front of them and talk about other opponents see it all the time.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I didn't know she fucked her coach till now.

Which isn't a bad thing at all. Jojo Calderwood's career has reached new heights under her now-fiancee John Wood at Syndicate MMA, and Julia Budd has had an excellent career, and is one of the best female fighters in the world training solely under husband Lance Gibson.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Anyone else considering playing Bryce Mitchell as the dog against Matt Sayles? I'm looking at it, but I haven't convinced myself to pull the trigger yet.

I’ve got 2u on Mitchell. I like his heart. I think he has a better gas tank than Sayles and comes out more motivated than ever now that Reebok finally hooked him up with those camo shorts he wanted.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Which isn't a bad thing at all. Jojo Calderwood's career has reached new heights under her now-fiancee John Wood at Syndicate MMA, and Julia Budd has had an excellent career, and is one of the best female fighters in the world training solely under husband Lance Gibson.

Great investigative work there but how do you explain Diego Sanchez's career tanking since he started banging his coach? To be fair, he is a dreamy hunk though.

Thug Rose lost a belt after a good luck kiss on the lips from her cornerman. Beyond sex, Gifford's own Dad looked on as his son nearly got killed in the Octagon.
Thinking there is nothing to this, lean to it muddying the waters more than helping.

 

[null]

Anyone else liking Jairzinho Rozenstruik/Alistair Overeem Under 1½ at -110 or -120? Rozenstruik can certainly get a fast KO if he catches Alistair in round 1 as he has done to many other fighters. Or if not, I can't see him having the defense, experience or composure to go much longer against Overeem like a Mark Hunt, JDS or Curtis Blaydes did.

 

[burge13]

Yeah I'd def lean under there

 

[BigSteve]

I’ve got 2u on Mitchell. I like his heart. I think he has a better gas tank than Sayles and comes out more motivated than ever now that Reebok finally hooked him up with those camo shorts he wanted.

Initial thought was the same, love Mitchels heart and attitude. But cardio wise he is the one that always seems tiered in third, least in all the UFC fights he had. Syles is a bit more messured and less wild. I have flipped after researching.

 

[ill800]

Props out

 

[LiquidNuke]

How do you guys feel about the following fighters getting stoppages?

Muradov, Means & Rothwell...

Considering a small parlay with the three and would love some input as I feel all three guys I'm fading here are basically shells of who they were, and or old, with defensive liabilities to boot...

 

[Card]

Interviews are coming in

https://www.youtube.com/user/MMAFightingonSBN/videos

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[northsofia]

I think Rothwell should be bigger favourite. He is coming of 3 losses but he was fighting a lot better fighters than Struve and all of them were very good boxers. Struve lost his fight with Tybura (who is not a UFC caliber) and almost lost to Rogerio De Lima (who is also not a UFC caliber in my opinion). Struve`s chin is very suspectable and doesnt have the style that causes troubles for Rothwell.