Buyer beware: the last two decent sized write-ups on dogs I posted were for Gunnar and Vinicius. 2L's there. Anyways, your refunds are in the mail.
Nz (that's all I'm bothering with) is decent at getting guys respect right away, backing them up, by what is surely an intimidating height, long arms, fingers extended and a methodical, slow, southpaw approach. He's also quick to dart out of striking range when swung at. He throws a lot of volume but his punches at stand-up range seem quite soft. A work in progress would definitely describe him well, I think.
In DWTNCS season 1, his opponent Berzin was getting peppered with jabs in the first half of Round 1 and easily outpointed. At the 2 minute mark Berzin throws a quick feint and shoots from a mile away for a TD. Nz sprawled well, should've stuffed it, but Berzin was tenacious and wanted it more. Once down, he instantly found the mount and had Nz dominated and vulnerable. Berzin, almost as if he was surprised at his success, or like he had run out of ideas, or energy as we see later, lost the position and Nz, good on him, muscled his way up. But immediately, Berzin grabs a single leg and again takes Nz down very easily. Another scramble to their feet and now Berzin is on Nz's back.
Inexplicably (well, cardio), Berzin wait's until there's only 1:30 left in Round 2 before attempting his next TD. Nz stuffs his gassing opponent easily, but I think a better, fresher opponent would've gotten it. Berzin tries again early in Round 3, gets him down briefly, but the sweaty Nz pops up. Berzin gasses himself for good on his final real TD attempt a short while later. Again, though, Nz looks very raw fighting it off, turning his back too soon to get away from it. A better, quicker opponent gets his back and likely the choke there. Nz, confirming himself a soft puncher, cannot finish a completely gassed punching bag in Berzin. The judge who scored it for Berzin was smoking crack.
Andre Kavanaugh, whose 7-14 record is almost flattering and makes me worry about those 7 men who lost to him, took Nz down twice; a much smaller, fatter man just flinging Nz through the air.
Paul Craig is not very good. He has an up and down chin, excellent cardio, ok striking, decent kicks, and pretty good submissions, although he seems much more comfortable on his back, much too eager to be there sometimes. But he has no real future in the UFC, loser in 3 of 5 now, one win being via hail mary. If he loses to Nz he needs to retire or get cut. He fought so-so against Pedro and paid the price. Then he fought terrified against Khalil and paid the price. I thought he held his own - his chin did too - against Ankalaev and it wasn't a total domination, certainly not one warranting a -700 line for the Russian. He had Crute in a bit of trouble in scrambles but he proved to be much stronger and better in that fight. Crute's quick KO of Sam Alvey takes a bit of stain off Craig's loss in hindsight.
Craig was able to complete TD's against Silva, Pedro, Ankalaev, and Crute. He will 100% be able to take Nz down. Nz does not throw anywhere near as hard as Khalil. Nz wil not be anywhere near as heavy as Pedro or Crute if he ends up on top of Craig. Nz almost certainly has no submission threat. This isn't a mismatch, per se, because Paul Craig will probably put himself in a spot to take a clean shot(s) from Nz, but aside from a somewhat flukey KO I cannot see how Craig doesn't take him down and choke him out or take an arm. I know what the UFC is hoping for here, in Nz, but outside of a massive step forward by the young-ish fighter, they're dreaming.
I'm trying not to go irresponsibly big here but I am also not sweating a 7u play.
5u Paul Craig ML
2u Paul Craig Submission
