Rumored UFC Heading To NETFLIX - Leaving ESPN

[Ibm]

Its a smart move. They know wat they are doing.

 

[danawhiteneedstogo]

Thank God. I dont have to bother with streams for WWE anymore and now I will have UFC. TKO is the best thing to happen to both companies.

 

[Romulas]

How was espn supposed to raise wages?

I'm not going to explain business to you. There are schools for that.

 

[Dr Fong]

Unfortunately it's not Dana's job to sell ppv. It's Dana's job to convince ESPN to pay the maximum amount of money to them to air an UFC event. It's up to ESPN to actually sell the ppv.
Dana and ESPN agree that ESPN will pay the UFC (random numbers) $5 million to air UFC 3**.
If 1 million people buy the ppv for $80 a ppv then ESPN has a gross income revenue of $80 million. Both the UFC and ESPN are extremely happy. (Actually the UFC is pissed because they missed out on negotiating for more money out of ESPN)
If 100,000 people buy the ppv at $80 a ppv then that's $8 million. That's good not great. The UFC got paid. ESPN made back what the UFC charged them and made some money on top.
If 10,000 people buy the ppv at $80 a ppv then that's $800,000. The UFC is happy because they got their $5 million out of ESPN. ESPN is pissed because they lost money. They overpaid the UFC for the event and are left holding the bag and absorbing the losses from the ppv underselling.

Absolutely none of this is 'Dana's' job. 'Dana' certainly does not negotiate with ESPN.

'Dana' doesn't even sit on the board of directors of TKO. How the fuck do so many hardcore MMA fans still not know this?

You are otherwise largely correct about the current deal, but you also don't need hypothetical numbers. ESPN agreed to pay U Fight Cheap for each PPV as if it generated 500k buys. Speculation is that the vast majority of events have gone nowhere near that as PPV has tanked.

It's very clear that ESPN got brutally bent over by TKO on this deal. And now Netflix will get brutally bent over too, but in a more straightforward sense. They will simply overpay for mediocre ratings and new subscriptions.

Overall for MMA though, Netflix should be a much lesser of two evils. The ESPN deal has been a cancer.

 

[Bend NvR Break]

Absolutely none of this is 'Dana's' job. 'Dana' certainly does not negotiate with ESPN.

'Dana' doesn't even sit on the board of directors of TKO. How the fuck do so many hardcore MMA fans still not know this?

You are otherwise largely correct about the current deal, but you also don't need hypothetical numbers. ESPN agreed to pay U Fight Cheap for each PPV as if it generated 500k buys. Speculation is that the vast majority of events have gone nowhere near that as PPV has tanked.

It's very clear that ESPN got brutally bent over by TKO on this deal. And now Netflix will get brutally bent over too, but in a more straightforward sense. They will simply overpay for mediocre ratings and new subscriptions.

Overall for MMA though, Netflix should be a much lesser of two evils. The ESPN deal has been a cancer.

Who said that DW is on the board?
He's the face AND mouth of the UFC. Not the brain.
Board members don't negotiate. They come up with ideas they want implemented and tell DW to get it done. Sometimes he can get it done and other times he can't.

 

[Oblivian]

Honestly, I don't think any of these streaming services handle sports worth a shit. We just had the huge mishap on ESPN where many couldn't get the last PPV. Lag occurs. Netflix shit the bed with Tyson/Paul.

 

[KungFuCow]

The PPV model is pretty much dead. It doesnt even exist in other countries.

Back in the stone age of MMA, I used to buy every card but back then, it cost $29.95. Then they had the Tito vs Randy match at UFC 44 and raised the price as a "one time thing" to $39.99 and the price never went back down and I haven't bought a PPV since.

Now the product is kind of watered down and definitely not what theyre trying to charge people. Something like Neflix is long overdue.

 

[vinnie245]

I can maybe see Netflix introduce a sports/TKO tier which will include WWE/UFC and future TKO boxing content but yeah they definitely arent bothering with PPV's.

 

[rjmbrd]

It's very clear that ESPN got brutally bent over by TKO on this deal. And now Netflix will get brutally bent over too, but in a more straightforward sense. They will simply overpay for mediocre ratings and new subscriptions.

Overall for MMA though, Netflix should be a much lesser of two evils. The ESPN deal has been a cancer.

Excellent post, just wanted to add - ESPN was happy with the deal until they were not. The original 5 year deal was extended 2 years and it was reported ESPN was please with ROI.

Now that PPV as a model has tanked, they are getting squeezed.

re: Netflix, their content budget went from $16 billion in 2024 to $18 billion 2025. This is a 2026 deal and they can easily roll a billion dollar/year deal for all UFC events into their next expected content increase.

This has the ability to get UFC back to growth mode and go airborne with big events. Their content chief (Bela Bajara) has the metrics on the Tyson fight and it was massive. For a billion this is a cheap get for Netflix. They spent 300mm on the terrible Chris Pratt movie that just came out last week.

ESPN with double paywalls stalled the sport for years now. PPV needs to go.

Board members don't negotiate. They come up with ideas they want implemented and tell DW to get it done

This is categorically incorrect. Dana doesn't negotiate media rights for the UFC and hasn't for well over a decade. Ari's WME represented the UFC and he personally brokered the Fox deal. We don't have to guess because he's publicly stated this and the entire process in great detail.

Ari personally shopped UFC rights which landed the ESPN deal, and he's given multiple long format interviews describing the process and people involved. Dana has nothing to do with this portion of the business.

Endeavor is the best media rights negotiator / broker on planet earth.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I think what we might see instead of PPV is more big main events without massively stacked undercards. So they kind of spread them out over the month. That would probably allow them to sell out more arenas if they're able to take a home country guy to sell tickets there.

 

[skylolow]

It's very clear that ESPN got brutally bent over by TKO on this deal. And now Netflix will get brutally bent over too, but in a more straightforward sense. They will simply overpay for mediocre ratings and new subscriptions.

Overall for MMA though, Netflix should be a much lesser of two evils. The ESPN deal has been a cancer.

I'm not sure that is true.

I mean UFC in the world of sports was very cheap to get at that time. UFC gives ESPN a ton of hours of product every year. When they entered the deal with the PPV side they knew what UFC was doing for buys. I'm sure the deal they struct reflected that.

If Netflix gets them it will be very interesting to see what kind of cost are involved. I'm guessing that deal will be more about keeping subscribers than gaining new ones. I'm sure a large portion of UFC's audience has netflix. But streaming service has to keep their products fresh to not lose subscribers and that is what the WWE deal was more about.

 

[TankAbbott4Eva]

All the UFC champions will become black overnight

Will be interesting to see how Netflix Dagestani’s look


Netflix documentary on the Nurmagomedov family

That’s elite Sherdogging my man well played

 

[Dr Fong]

Who said that DW is on the board?
He's the face AND mouth of the UFC. Not the brain.
Board members don't negotiate. They come up with ideas they want implemented and tell DW to get it done. Sometimes he can get it done and other times he can't.

Dana not being on the board was me trying to help educate you that he doesn't have the level of power that you think he does. Nick Khan, President of WWE, does sit on the board of directors unlike Dana, for example.

Dana does not negotiate TV/streaming deals on behalf of TKO. You are simply ignorant about his role in the organization.

 

[Dr Fong]

Excellent post, just wanted to add - ESPN was happy with the deal until they were not. The original 5 year deal was extended 2 years and it was reported ESPN was please with ROI.

Now that PPV as a model has tanked, they are getting squeezed.

re: Netflix, their content budget went from $16 billion in 2024 to $18 billion 2025. This is a 2026 deal and they can easily roll a billion dollar/year deal for all UFC events into their next expected content increase.

This has the ability to get UFC back to growth mode and go airborne with big events. Their content chief (Bela Bajara) has the metrics on the Tyson fight and it was massive. For a billion this is a cheap get for Netflix. They spent 300mm on the terrible Chris Pratt movie that just came out last week.

ESPN with double paywalls stalled the sport for years now. PPV needs to go.



This is categorically incorrect. Dana doesn't negotiate media rights for the UFC and hasn't for well over a decade. Ari's WME represented the UFC and he personally brokered the Fox deal. We don't have to guess because he's publicly stated this and the entire process in great detail.

Ari personally shopped UFC rights which landed the ESPN deal, and he's given multiple long format interviews describing the process and people involved. Dana has nothing to do with this portion of the business.

Endeavor is the best media rights negotiator / broker on planet earth.

It's hard to argue that Ari is a genius when it comes to media rights.

When the terms of the ESPN deal were announced, I somehow felt genuine sympathy for a bunch of TV execs because they had just been screwed.

I don't know how ESPN ever agreed to take on that level of risk with the clearly shaky PPV market, and exacerbating that risk by firewalling it.

While I could see Netflix pushing the UFC back into a growth model, I could also see the UFC continuing to be lazy cheap content providers if Netflix isn't careful. Let's hope the terms of the deal and Netflix's marketing push it more into the former.

 

[CC27]

TNT is said to be in the mix for maybe a low end package.

Wonder if UFC pieces this thing together with 3 partners.

Give Netflix 12 numbered shows that are free so no more PPVs.

Give ESPN 20 fight nights, 10 on main ESPN and 10 on ESPN+, all live crowds. ESPN doesnt have to deal with PPVs, they get good fight nights for network and gives ESPN+ some fights.

TNT comes in for low end package, give them 10 Apex events, rebrand then UFC Challengers or something as not to be compared or confused with other shows. Its C tier, the prospects, some filler, main event that wouldnt headline an arena show.

Then maybe TNT gets contender series too.

I just dont know if one network is gonna go all in for the 800 mill to 1 billion UFC is gonna ask for. Maybe its just Netflix and ESPN.

 

[rjmbrd]

It's hard to argue that Ari is a genius when it comes to media rights.

Ari is the GOAT of media rights deals. He more or less invented "packaging" too which forever changed Hollywood.

When the terms of the ESPN deal were announced, I somehow felt genuine sympathy for a bunch of TV execs because they had just been screwed.

I don't know how ESPN ever agreed to take on that level of risk with the clearly shaky PPV market, and exacerbating that risk by firewalling it.

Conor effect and good Power Point slides. If the UFC still had a handful of stars, the deal would be broadly upside for ESPN. In the current milieu, its pretty bleak. Also keep in mind this is in a time when streamers were ALL buying customers.

Pay now, figure it out later etc. Things have shaken out over time.

While I could see Netflix pushing the UFC back into a growth model, I could also see the UFC continuing to be lazy cheap content providers if Netflix isn't careful. Let's hope the terms of the deal and Netflix's marketing push it more into the former.

Netflix has ~66 million US subscribers. It is almost impossible that this deal doesn't expand UFC reach.

Its been behind double paywalls at an absolutely insane price for years.

 

[moon to me]

All the UFC champions will become black overnight

Will be interesting to see how Netflix Dagestani’s look


Netflix documentary on the Nurmagomedov family

"We was Caucasians!"

 

[Pakman]

Best we can do is a cheaper Netflix subscription for fighters.

lol I've been laughing for 10 mins at this response. Good stuff.

 

[Bend NvR Break]

Dana not being on the board was me trying to help educate you that he doesn't have the level of power that you think he does. Nick Khan, President of WWE, does sit on the board of directors unlike Dana, for example.

Dana does not negotiate TV/streaming deals on behalf of TKO. You are simply ignorant about his role in the organization.

Not TKO the UFC.
And Nick Khan is a legitimate billionaire. Even if he wasn't president of the WWE he'd still sit on the board. He's a major share holder in TKO. That's why he's on the board.

You somehow get 7% of TKO and I promise you can sit on the board if you wanted.

And you're a random guy on the internet saying "trust me bro." If you wanted to educate me you could've linked sources so I could see and read or listen to them myself and not just that the word of someone I can't apart from a can of paint.

 

[Alpha_T83]

I was saying this a while ago. The biggest mistake they made was going to ESPN+. VERY FEW people have ESPN+ accounts overall. Of all the UFC fans I know personally, none of them had an ESPN+ account before the UFC joined that platform.

People just don't want to pay a yearly ESPN+ subscription in order to buy UFC events. I was saying they should have joined Amazon or Netflix. Join a streaming platform where most people already have accounts. The majority of UFC fans have amazon accounts and netflix accounts. Either could offer a PPV streaming service for the UFC. Or hell, buy cloud computing pay-per-use resources (compute + bandwidth) so you can distribute your own PPV.

ESPN+ is a failure. The old model was probably better than ESPN+.