UFC FOX 28 - Stephens vs Emmett - Orlando

[Stunna77]

Jeremy Stephens - Shortest turn around in UFC career, Dana called and ask if I wanted to be main event, I didn't ask who, I said yes, this is how I live my life, how I provide, I love it, I was already in shape, 4 weeks, best cardio, I'm there to take your head off, been fighting since I was 21, I do hot yoga, I'm constantly learning, the storm is coming, I'd whoop his ass if he was here right now, back to back main events, back to back wins

Exact attitude I want to see from guys I bet on. Stephens always brings it and has been improving his gameplanning and becoming more tactical since moving to Alliance, while still staying true to his style. Dangerous guy to be facing in a 5 round fight, especially if you have suspect cardio..

 

[Card]

Jessica Andrade - get the opportunity to fight for the belt again, I have not come this far to get defeated, coach says their female team is the best and biggest in the world, there is no easy training, coach tells her to act like a pitbull, move forward, trains students, even though I didn't win the title, I felt the possibility of being champion, fight for the belt again, there will be a war, today you picked the wrong day to fight because today I am feeling very sinister, coach says Torres can't win in any area

Tecia Torres - training martial arts since I was 6, it's a lifestyle, moved to Colorado last year to train with Raquel Pennington, we met in 2012, she's my first female relationship, I'm happy with the coach and team in Colorado, Pennington is my coach, have more support here, high altitude is an extra strength, we're planning a wedding, I come from a point fighting karate style, I throw in flurries, then I'm out, using lots of kicks, She'll be one of the toughest opponents I've faced, I have to believe in myself, get in and out, just as strong, faster, I hope she's not looking down at me

 

[iGnP]

I’ve got emmet left to complete this parlay

Lost 100 on yancy hedge

He closed as favorite

I actually just thought He was gonna win but should have got away from this mentality when I saw them hugging at weigh in. lol

Not sure how I can hedge Stephens right and gauruntee profit either way



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Other than that I like kelleheler and Saunders as dogs this card... I think Saunders can weather the storm and eventually crack jouban suspect chin or sub him if it hits the mat as I don’t think he survives in Saunders guard.

Def like the over in the hill fight

You want guaranteed profit? throw 477.54 on Stephens. you win about 250 regardless of the winner

 

[Card]

I don't care who's in front of me, the boss called me and told me to take him out like a hitman, get back to the number 1 spot, I've fought the best of the best, not one easy fight, he doesn't have the experience, good fight iq, I don't take alot of damage, I go home healthy, I learn from my losses, I evolve, I change, Cruz is my mentor, it's a lifestyle, Eric Del Fierro knows how to use me and get me wins, I like to stand, I can do it all, we're a smaller weight class gym, hard work and dedication, I make good money fighting, UFC knows I'll fight, I'll step up, I'm healthy, Emmett is the only guy on my mind right now

 

[ApplesVild]

Stephens KO'd Doo Ho Choi but before that he had 5 decisions, Emmett KO'd Lamas and had 4 decisions before that.

Something I was thinking about while watching the over unders for this fight.

You don't think both these guys are going to come out swinging hard? I think both guys will by trying to prove a point as being the big hitter in the devision

To be fair I make terrible picks and chances are you are right haha

 

[bunt]

Will be betting 4-5 units (5 is usually my max bet) on Latifi here.

Most bookies have him at +100 or more, and that is a steal.

Anderson was manhandling OSP in the clinch and holding him down, and Latifi is a better wrestler than Anderson and physically stronger as well. He is also less likely to get caught with something crazy, and has a better chin than Corey.

Damn son you got me questioning whether I should continue with my OSP bet. I wouldn't say Corey was handling Ovince but he's certainly seemed limited against high level grapplers like Glover for example.

The difference is Glover is a much higher level striker and more effective wrestler than Latifi.

I do like latifi and picked him to win against Bader, but his limited striking game and propensity to brainfart in some fights doesn't give me enough confidence to bet him. Good luck!

 

[ill800]

Jessica Andrade - get the opportunity to fight for the belt again, I have not come this far to get defeated, coach says their female team is the best and biggest in the world, there is no easy training, coach tells her to act like a pitbull, move forward, trains students, even though I didn't win the title, I felt the possibility of being champion, fight for the belt again, there will be a war, today you picked the wrong day to fight because today I am feeling very sinister, coach says Torres can't win in any area

Tecia Torres - training martial arts since I was 6, it's a lifestyle, moved to Colorado last year to train with Raquel Pennington, we met in 2012, she's my first female relationship, I'm happy with the coach and team in Colorado, Pennington is my coach, have more support here, high altitude is an extra strength, we're planning a wedding, I come from a point fighting karate style, I throw in flurries, then I'm out, using lots of kicks, She'll be one of the toughest opponents I've faced, I have to believe in myself, get in and out, just as strong, faster, I hope she's not looking down at me

Man Raquel Pennington straight turned her out. She should get some kind of public recognition for that. Strong pimp hand that Pennington must have. I’ll be looking to play her in her next fight

Confidence increase indeed

 

[iGnP]

just playing devil's advocate here-

i watched some tape on Emmett and Stephens and Emmett seemingly will have a pretty decent speed advantage, which has been something Stephens hasnt been able to deal with well in the past. i didnt hear anyone bring that up but i think we should be objective here

 

[Karmello]

You don't think both these guys are going to come out swinging hard? I think both guys will by trying to prove a point as being the big hitter in the devision

To be fair I make terrible picks and chances are you are right haha

I actually do think there's a good chance that this one will end in the first couple of rounds, but it's definitely not a given. I think both guys are really hard to put away.

Not sure if and how I will bet on this fight, but I expect some fireworks in this one.

 

[northsofia]

just playing devil's advocate here-

i watched some tape on Emmett and Stephens and Emmett seemingly will have a pretty decent speed advantage, which has been something Stephens hasnt been able to deal with well in the past. i didnt hear anyone bring that up but i think we should be objective here

I still didnt watch Emmet tape, but Stephens has some very nice head movement and i think he can avoid more of Emmet`s bombs, because they come from far away. Stephens struggles a lot with fighters who are moving a lot and with that said, do you think that Emmet has good angles cutting and footwork?

 

[iGnP]

Stephens struggles a lot with fighters who are moving a lot and with that said, do you think that Emmet has good angles cutting and footwork?

not really. i think Emmett will probably give Stephens fits early. Stephens actually gets hit a decent amount, looks like his defense isn't quite there yet and he relies on his chin too much (which has worked fine for him so far). if i were to bet this fight today, I'd prob throw small bets on Emmett rounds 1,2, maybe 3 and look to LB Stephens if he were to fall to dog odds.

edit w that being said, i still have no urge to bet this fight unless there's movement to current line

 

[Sham5916910]

Emmett is too reliant on his right hand. I know he kod lamas with a left hook but emmett is predictable af. Big right hand and he loves stance switch to throw left high kick. He will slow too from stephens pressure and get sloppier. Long as stephens survives r1 that is

 

[Karmello]

Sara McMann does have quit in her despite being an Olympian and Marion Reneau is a 40 year old high school gym teacher. Both these girls have subbed their opponents and gotten subbed multiple times in their careers. It's always somewhat risky in a women's bout, but I like the under 2½ at +195 in this case.

Yeah I feel you man, reasonable chance this doesn't go the distance. I took a little stab at this @2.85

 

[lifeisgood12345]

not really. i think Emmett will probably give Stephens fits early. Stephens actually gets hit a decent amount, looks like his defense isn't quite there yet and he relies on his chin too much (which has worked fine for him so far). if i were to bet this fight today, I'd prob throw small bets on Emmett rounds 1,2, maybe 3 and look to LB Stephens if he were to fall to dog odds.

edit w that being said, i still have no urge to bet this fight unless there's movement to current line

I agree with this. I like Stephens, bet him +150 vs Choi, but I feel like people are starting to give him a bit too much love after back to back good performances against an aging + post-USADA melendez and Choi who has awful defense.

Meanwhile Emmett has looked goood in his last 2 fights, seems to be improved. I still don't think he's anything special, but neither is Stephens. They are both in a similar tier of good but not great.

I'd say it's correct to favor Stephens, but I don't think he's going to dominate too often. -150 feels like an accurate price to me. Really pales in comparison to betting him at +150 vs Choi or +100 vs Melendez.

 

[Soccer Steve]

just playing devil's advocate here-

i watched some tape on Emmett and Stephens and Emmett seemingly will have a pretty decent speed advantage, which has been something Stephens hasnt been able to deal with well in the past. i didnt hear anyone bring that up but i think we should be objective here

I brought it up many times already - *edit*: on the Emmett side. No, I didn't mention how Stephens struggled with it before.

I guess I stand alone as the Emmett backer it seems haha

 

[mkess101]

just playing devil's advocate here-

i watched some tape on Emmett and Stephens and Emmett seemingly will have a pretty decent speed advantage, which has been something Stephens hasnt been able to deal with well in the past. i didnt hear anyone bring that up but i think we should be objective here

It's a concern for sure. I also think it's why Emmett has had times where he gasses. He throws most of his punches looking to take someone's head off, even when he's at distance and they have little chance of landing. He seems to be sort of all fast twitch, with little ability to sustain it throughout a fight (better recently than before, but still not on the level of Stephens).

I don't think the speed advantage is huge though. It's there, but marginal imo from what I've seen. I think Superboy is faster than Stephens too, wired a bit the same way as Emmett in that he throws a lot of fast power punches early in fights but his arms get heavy after a bit from doing it. One way Stephens has seemingly learned to deal with it is by hammering the lead leg early in fights.

I think I agree with the philosophy that if Emmett wins, it's gonna be early. If lines are right I may hedge with Josh rds 1 and/or 2. That said, Jeremy hasn't been stopped in over 5 years, 12 fights. And a lot of those against guys more highly touted than Josh. Betting on Josh is betting that either A) His gas tank holds up better than most of us think it will over 5 rounds or B) he KO's a guy with 1 KO loss in 41 pro fights (and for the last 10 years all in the UFC against UFC caliber opponents--25 fights total).

 

[null]

Undercard lines came out for UFC on Fox 28 this Saturday. Big early line movement on some of them. Olivier Aubin-Mercier went from a slight underdog at -105 to a heavy favorite at -195 with the comeback on Gilbert Burns now at +155. I think there's value in world BJJ champion Burns who only has two losses in his MMA career at this number or higher against a submission artist like OAM.

 

[Sadistics]

Took Burns +170, Perez -120, and Morales +260. Other than 4u Hill -114 it's gonna be a small card for me.

 

[edole]

In round 1, I actually think Emmett is the better fighter, but as he slows down a bit Stephens will start to take over.

I like this fight from a live betting perspective.

 

[Tony J]

Re: Hill/Moroz 2

Watched some tape on Hill since I scrolled through here and saw potential cardio concerns for her. I am not really seeing it, or at least anything to be concerned about. She went 5 rounds back to back in Invicta but I focused on the bouts with Ansaroff and Andrade. Now the Andrade fight is just what happens when you take so much damage and abuse - to me that's less to do with gassing and more to just taking a beating. Think Franklin vs Anderson 1 and the sheer abuse that an Iron Man like Ace took. He looked like he fought for 20 rounds after 20 seconds inside of Anderson's clinch.

The Ansaroff bout did show a slowdown in Hill's output after R1, but she still went strike for strike with a very underrated and technical fighter in Ansaroff (I would pick her over MM as well). Her numbers prove that. Check this out. Even though Hill only has one more UFC bout than Moroz (6 fights and 16 rounds vs 5 and 13), Hill has scored 389 strikes vs Moroz' 157. That's nuts.