UFC FOX 28 - Stephens vs Emmett - Orlando

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Another thing to add, which was mentioned last page I think but I'll get a bit more specific.

5 rounds.

I've seen Jeremy Stephens at the end of a 5 round fight against a top tier guy. He lost the fight, and rightfully so. But he was still throwing power shots and advancing even 22, 23, 24 minutes into that fight. I don't think he can go 5 hard rounds, I KNOW he can. Because I've seen it. With Josh, even if you think his cardio has improved over the last couple years (which I do), it's still an unknown at best.

Assuming you don't think either guy gets an early KO (which is possible, but unlikely imo), I think cardio has to be something that anyone backing Emmett should be pretty nervous about.
 
mkess101 said:
Another thing to add, which was mentioned last page I think but I'll get a bit more specific.

5 rounds.

I've seen Jeremy Stephens at the end of a 5 round fight against a top tier guy. He lost the fight, and rightfully so. But he was still throwing power shots and advancing even 22, 23, 24 minutes into that fight. I don't think he can go 5 hard rounds, I KNOW he can. Because I've seen it. With Josh, even if you think his cardio has improved over the last couple years (which I do), it's still an unknown at best.

Assuming you don't think either guy gets an early KO (which is possible, but unlikely imo), I think cardio has to be something that anyone backing Emmett should be pretty nervous about.
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Nail on the head.

I’ll take Stephens all day given that this is a 5 rounder. Stephens is durable as fuck! Emmett has shown that he is not good at pacing himself & begins to slowdown as the fight goes on if he can’t finish. He will flurry on Stephens and make him cover up, but I see Stephens with standing His strikes and then beginning to land the kind of counters he ripped Choi with.

I really like Stephens here. He has everything that I look for when betting a fighter in a 5 rounder.

2.9u to win 2
 
Re: Hill vs Moroz
Hill has faced more dangerous ground fighters, and is surely the better striker. Moroz has just never been able to use her range well - Danielle Taylor who is what 4'10" rocked her and Esparza comfortably won on the feet as well. Even with Jojo, Moroz closed the distance for Caulderwood with that flurry - JoJo just hates pressure.

Hill is much more varied on the feet and brings more volume and speed. At best, Moroz tries to keep up with Hill combos after the fact with mixed success.
 
I got a few units on Hill at -130 which i think is a great line. I think Hill can keep the fight standing and has way better stand up. Looking for a lopsided decision or possible late stoppage.
 
Just to add something - the fight was scheduled in the middle of January after Stephens KOd Choi and Emmet was having a holiday before this, so not exactly a full camp for Josh, maybe 5 or 6 weeks.
 
I don't understand all the Emmett love in this fight...where is he gonna beat Stephens? He's unlikely to knock him out, he's not as good on the ground, his lead leg is gonna get torn up, and he has unproven cardio. Stephens is a confident pick for me here, I'd love to hear a compelling argument against it.
 
Like others, I bet Angela Hill ML -130 vs Maryna Moroz. Angela has improved a lot in her UFC, Invicta and back to UFC campaign. She'll be a much better striker than Moroz and won't be easy to take down or submit. She actually gave future strawweight title challenger Jessica Andrade a good fight on short notice not long ago. 2.6u to win 2u.
 
Sara McMann does have quit in her despite being an Olympian and Marion Reneau is a 40 year old high school gym teacher. Both these girls have subbed their opponents and gotten subbed multiple times in their careers. It's always somewhat risky in a women's bout, but I like the under 2½ at +195 in this case.
 
I'm really liking more spots on this card the deeper I look into it. I like Mike Perry/Max Griffin over 1½ at +100. These guys both have some quick KOs but only over lesser competition. I think this will go at least until round 2 and maybe even into 3 or possibly the distance.
 
JimGunn said:
Like others, I bet Angela Hill ML -130 vs Maryna Moroz. Angela has improved a lot in her UFC, Invicta and back to UFC campaign. She'll be a much better striker than Moroz and won't be easy to take down or submit. She actually gave future strawweight title challenger Jessica Andrade a good fight on short notice not long ago. 2.6u to win 2u.
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I like Hill but I think she has an issue with gassing. I don't think her style is suited to her.
 
I don't value Emmett's upset win over Lamas that much, since I pin it more on Lamas for seemingly not having a gameplan or any urgency in that fight. Emmett essentially got given free reign to box Lamas up, whilst Lamas effectively threw like 3 mid-strength legkicks and finally got caught with his chin in the air. Nice KO, to be sure, but I don't think it's a win that's indicative of any revolution in Emmett's game.

Nobody seriously thinks Emmett's the #5 FW, too. A more honest ranking'd probably have Lamas still above him, based on track record, and Emmett around like #12-13.
 
The blue print to beat Emmett was laid by Holtz. Pressure pressure pressure. And gues what Stephens does...

Emmett reacted horribly to that pressure. He started winging wildly, used lots of exaggerated movement to escape the pressure and started panic shooting/clinching. All this meant he gassed very quickly. Emmett's right hand is a worry but Stephen's is going to bring the heat and as long as his chin holds up he's going to get to Emmett IMO.
 
BatBoyJG said:
I like Killa Bee here as a dog. I see the fight being close, and Saunders can certainly come out ahead. I'm comfortable putting something small on him here because Jouban doesn't really have the wrestling skill to make this a tactically difficult fight for Saunders.
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Saunders: “When I was in LA, we did some classes together. We sparred back in the day, but honestly, we never did MMA, hardcore sparring on the regular. It’s more of that we’re friends through the gym and being around each other and being on the same team more than consistent, daily training partners. That definitely doesn’t make it as personal.”

I think this too favours Saunders as the stronger grappler. He probably has a feel about Jouban’s weaknesses on ground/tdd, because those things do not require hard sparring, but Jouban does not have a similar feel on Saunders’ striking at full power.
 
vkram said:
I like Hill but I think she has an issue with gassing. I don't think her style is suited to her.
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At the very least, she's aware of this problem and has been working pretty hard on conditioning in the camp leading up to this fight. It's all over her Instagram.

She's going to need the cardio because her best chance of victory is to outvolume Moroz and to keep moving constantly. I don't think she's obviously a better striker than Moroz. Definitely more variety and more active.

Moroz has her goods and bads. Good is that she has fast hands and throws straight punches well. Bad is her lack of volume and lack of angles attacking and retreating. She throws a 1-2 and is there to be hit. She seems to be working on this too doing weaving drills on her Instagram. Moroz is a bit inconsistent as well. Looked defensively sluggish against Letourneau getting dropped in the 1st round but then really outstruck Letourneau later in the fight.

This matchup should answer a lot of questions about Moroz's striking. Hill should be in her face and throwing for all 3 rounds so we'll see if she cracks under the volume and pressure, or whether she can bite down and beat Hill to the punch.

Based on previous fights and some pure conjecture based on gym prestige, I would assume that Hill is improving at a faster clip than Moroz (who was working with her boxing husband for a long time). I think Angela is rightly favored here, but not sure there's any value left at whatever the price is now (-145).
 
Sham5916910 said:
The blue print to beat Emmett was laid by Holtz. Pressure pressure pressure. And gues what Stephens does...

Emmett reacted horribly to that pressure. He started winging wildly, used lots of exaggerated movement to escape the pressure and started panic shooting/clinching. All this meant he gassed very quickly. Emmett's right hand is a worry but Stephen's is going to bring the heat and as long as his chin holds up he's going to get to Emmett IMO.
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Agreed. In Emmett's last 4 fights, he's only looked good in two of them. He did not look good at all vs. Green and Holtzman gave him a tough fight. His KO of Lamas has really pushed this line drastically. If that fight didn't happen, Stephens would be moderately to heavy favored.
 
ApplesVild said:
99% chance the main event ends with a finish ko/tko
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Stephens KO'd Doo Ho Choi but before that he had 5 decisions, Emmett KO'd Lamas and had 4 decisions before that.

Something I was thinking about while watching the over unders for this fight.
 
Josh Emmett - If I didn't get in the UFC by 2016, I was done fighting, luckily I got in, fighting lifestyle is tough, non stop grind, I put my body through hell, I have the work ethic, talent and desire to win, I came to the gym when it opened, and Faber invited me to the pro classes, he has an eye for talent, he's a great mentor, this has been a long road, alot of injuries, alot of adversity, a decade of grinding, it finally paid off, will be that much sweeter when I become champion, once a week I have a big dinner with friends, I will get the belt, (coach says teaching recovery is important because he's pushing himself so hard), Stephens is a legend, we'll see who can hit harder, keep moving forward, I'll be 14-1

Jeremy Stephens - Shortest turn around in UFC career, Dana called and ask if I wanted to be main event, I didn't ask who, I said yes, this is how I live my life, how I provide, I love it, I was already in shape, 4 weeks, best cardio, I'm there to take your head off, been fighting since I was 21, I do hot yoga, I'm constantly learning, the storm is coming, I'd whoop his ass if he was here right now, back to back main events, back to back wins

 
I’ve got emmet left to complete this parlay

Lost 100 on yancy hedge

He closed as favorite

I actually just thought He was gonna win but should have got away from this mentality when I saw them hugging at weigh in. lol

Not sure how I can hedge Stephens right and gauruntee profit either way



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Other than that I like kelleheler and Saunders as dogs this card... I think Saunders can weather the storm and eventually crack jouban suspect chin or sub him if it hits the mat as I don’t think he survives in Saunders guard.

Def like the over in the hill fight
 
Ovince Saint Preux - I do mental training with my coach, go into the fight with nerves, fighting is a good rush, coach says if you out work your opponent during training, you'll outwork him in the fight, I love what I do, I have a stand up advantage, my reach, good sub or KO, someone is getting beat really really bad

Ilir Latifi - training in Miami, last camp was in Sweden, coach says in Miami, if you're mind isn't 100%, Miami can be bad for you, distract you, started wrestling when I was 6 years old, love training on the beach, relax and enjoy life, everyone knows 5th Street Gym, alot of legends trained here, coach says everyone is beatable, have all the tools to beat him, will be a great challenge, great fight, I will make a statement, finish

 
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