UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[AffectEffect]

It's about access to information. This thread is gold for someone with reading comprehension. Of course the bookies read it.

Newer people on here don't remember the days of going through shitty forums, and gambling forums like covers and sbr looking for decent fight talk. They probably don't realize how much the knowledge and input of people like EZ have made them.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Goodfella confirmed that they check this thread. Dont remember his source tho.

Ive gone over my reasons many times for why i dont buy into this. This thread is full of winners and losers so not really that simple.

All in all imo there is more value to us discussing fights prior to lines being released than not.

People itt overvalue their opinions....Kalikas has his own take on most fights.

 

[LEMONZEST]

I know and I said I wouldn't be surprised if Kalikas looks here occasionally but I doubt it's something he relies on regularly to set his lines. Some people here seem to be confused as to how lines are set and how lines move.

This. Lines are set in anticipation of how the public will bet. This forum in its entirety represents a miniscule amount of the total $ wagered.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

This. Lines are set in anticipation of how the public will bet. This forum in its entirety represents a miniscule amount of the total $ wagered.

Exactly, a good example is Conor opening as a nearly 2-1 fav over Aldo. And yeah like I said, I highly doubt this thread makes up even 1% of the money that is wagered on MMA worldwide.

 

[LEMONZEST]

Exactly, a good example is Conor opening as a nearly 2-1 fav over Aldo. And yeah like I said, I highly doubt this thread makes up even 1% of the money that is wagered on MMA worldwide.

Thats why I think its funny. Its like how big is our ego that we think the lines are being set by us. Yeah there are some sharp dudes in here but there is also a lot of shit to wade through.

There is also a multitude of youtubers that make picks and professional podcasts. Yeah sure Kalikas MIGHT drop in from time to time (just my guess). But I really can't imagine this thread being in any way a major part of his setting lines.

EDIT: now compare that with the benefit we can gain from discussing the fights prior to lines being released so when lines do come out we all can make the "right" bets fast. From a cost/benefit point of view I see a lot of value in discussing fights prior to lines.

 

[Joseph Budden]

why would Kalikas lurk us when he could just listen to Luca Fury?

 

[Agent Mulder]

This. Lines are set in anticipation of how the public will bet. This forum in its entirety represents a miniscule amount of the total $ wagered.

Exactly, a good example is Conor opening as a nearly 2-1 fav over Aldo. And yeah like I said, I highly doubt this thread makes up even 1% of the money that is wagered on MMA worldwide.

Not sure if you guys are trolling me or just ignoring the posts I made about these exact things just before yours.

*BTW I doubt that its as big as 1%, that would actually be a GREAT sample size for them.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

why would Kalikas lurk us when he could just listen to Luca Fury?

Honestly I think Kalikas would value the opinion of Luca Fury over this forum. Not that he really needs either. Hate to say it but Luca Fury actually been doing well over the last 6 months. I just don't like the guy because of the way he adversities himself, claiming he's on massive streaks and all that when all he does is bet juice.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

*BTW I doubt that its as big as 1%, that would actually be a GREAT sample size for them.

Less than 1% for sure. 1 Whale bets more than this forum combined. Most here are $50 bettors, I even seen some $2 bettors. Not many 4+ figure dudes.

 

[Slohog]

Oh god, it's not about the amount of money. Ever heard of election polls? They make predictions of the patterns of millions and millions of people out of low four figure samples, and that's a random sample of people who mostly doesn't give much of a shit.

Here we have a sample of maybe 50 somewhat regular posters who are more or less the perfect focus group in most cases (although biases might be different regarding certain types of fighters) where you try to predict the pattern of maybe ~10k people. Say he reads this and one or two different forums with a high concentration of gamblers and he will get the general feel of probably 1% of the betting population. That's a absolutely massive sample.

It's also seems very easy to compensate for whale action for the most part since they, on average, places losing bets and even after the bookie's cut it wouldn't be hard to leave some room for sharp money on the other side.

If he on the other hand fucks up and places a line 20 points "wrong" compared to how the betting public in general sees it, money will likely not come in on the other side when other bookies opens it more "correct".

You'd have to have some serious cognitive dissonance to believe that you'd make better bets by discussing bets in these threads but people who sets lines would not gain an edge from reading it.

 

[Stunna77]

Man. Cerrone has had trouble with fast boxers. Even in his wins he was lit up by fast boxers. Alvarez, barboza, even guillard even Jim Miller was lighting him up standing. But he was able to out last them. The thing is Mas doesn't really take much punishment or gas. I just think it's sort of a bad match up for Cowboy

I'd argue that alvarez, barboza and guillard are all faster than Masvidal, but I get your point. With Cerrone's style he is going to get hit, but he is also going to return fire with more devastating shots, which he did to all of the above. Mas hasn't taken much punishment because he has been point fighting most of his time in the UFC. The argument for him to beat Cerrone is that he has learned to be more aggressive and will pressure him. My argument is if he does indeed do that, he will get into more exchanges and Cerrone has a substantial power advantage and a much more diverse attack. That position seems to be in the minority for this fight; hoping that means Cerrone's line will come down. If not, I don't mind just enjoying this one as it should be fun.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Oh god, it's not about the amount of money. Ever heard of election polls? They make predictions of the patterns of millions and millions of people out of low four figure samples, and that's a random sample of people who mostly doesn't give much of a shit.

Here we have a sample of maybe 50 somewhat regular posters who are more or less the perfect focus group in most cases (although biases might be different regarding certain types of fighters) where you try to predict the pattern of maybe ~10k people. Say he reads this and one or two different forums with a high concentration of gamblers and he will get the general feel of probably 1% of the betting population. That's a absolutely massive sample.

It's also seems very easy to compensate for whale action for the most part since they, on average, places losing bets and even after the bookie's cut it wouldn't be hard to leave some room for sharp money on the other side.

If he on the other hand fucks up and places a line 20 points "wrong" compared to how the betting public in general sees it, money will likely not come in on the other side when other bookies opens it more "correct".

You'd have to have some serious cognitive dissonance to believe that you'd make better bets by discussing bets in these threads but people who sets lines would not gain an edge from reading it.

Very good post you explained it a lot better than me.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

Sherdog casual MMA bettors - "We set and move the lines"

 

[Joseph Budden]

Sherdog casual MMA bettors - "We set and move the lines"

 

[michi972]

Thoughts on Da Silva as the dog?

 

[Sham5916910]

I'd argue that alvarez, barboza and guillard are all faster than Masvidal, but I get your point. With Cerrone's style he is going to get hit, but he is also going to return fire with more devastating shots, which he did to all of the above. Mas hasn't taken much punishment because he has been point fighting most of his time in the UFC. The argument for him to beat Cerrone is that he has learned to be more aggressive and will pressure him. My argument is if he does indeed do that, he will get into more exchanges and Cerrone has a substantial power advantage and a much more diverse attack. That position seems to be in the minority for this fight; hoping that means Cerrone's line will come down. If not, I don't mind just enjoying this one as it should be fun.

I wouldnt say cerrone has the power advantage with his hands at least not by much. His head kick is the deadly weapon that needs to be avoided at all costs. Belgrade made a good point to me earlier when he said cerrone has enjoyed a speed advantage over his last three opponents that he wont have here.

 

[Sham5916910]

Thoughts on Da Silva as the dog?

Absolutely correct. How does he win this fight

 

[Stunna77]

I wouldnt say cerrone has the power advantage with his hands at least not by much. His head kick is the deadly weapon that needs to be avoided at all costs. Belgrade made a good point to me earlier when he said cerrone has enjoyed a speed advantage over his last three opponents that he wont have here.

Maybe it is just because he hasn't been agressive, but Mas doesn't have a legit KO/TKO from punches since 2009. I agree that Cerrone's most dangerous weapon are his kicks, however he has imrpoved his hands a lot over the last few years.

That's a good point. I do think Mas will have success boxing and will beat him to the punch in some exchanges, but Cerrone will land the harder shots and mix it up more imo. I don't see Mas finishing and he doesn't exactly make a habit of winning clear-cut decisions. If it does come down to a close decision, the fact that the fight is in Denver and the crowd being solidly behind Cowboy, will make his more powerful shots ring even louder with the judges.

 

[2bet]

I did not believe in any dogs from the last card, and Augusto Mendes was the only real dog that actually bit.

It's the total opposite for this card though, I don 't have strong leans and I could see so many upsets on this card.

I do not trust most of those favourites, so I will mostly have to go with dogs/totals

 

[Sham5916910]

Maybe it is just because he hasn't been agressive, but Mas doesn't have a legit KO/TKO from punches since 2009. I agree that Cerrone's most dangerous weapon are his kicks, however he has imrpoved his hands a lot over the last few years.

That's a good point. I do think Mas will have success boxing and will beat him to the punch in some exchanges, but Cerrone will land the harder shots and mix it up more imo. I don't see Mas finishing and he doesn't exactly make a habit of winning clear-cut decisions. If it does come down to a close decision, the fact that the fight is in Denver and the crowd being solidly behind Cowboy, will make his more powerful shots ring even louder with the judges.

He does have power but yeah aggression has been his problem. He had al in all sorts of bother, same with pearson and berger was badly hurt too. Really looking forward to this one.