UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[rille31]

There will be times when someone will be working on a sub and Rogan will say "he's not in danger", but to the layman who don't hear the commentary (judges), it will look like a dangerous sub attempt and reward it with big points. So the viewers will see it one way and the judges another. This will create live betting value.

Joe Rogan talked in his podcast about a female judge in Vegas, who started asking questions in the middle of a fight on what was happening with the grappling. She didn't have any clue what was going on.

Many of these judges are boxing judges, completely cluless when it comes to grappling.

 

[Sham5916910]

Joe Rogan talked in his podcast about a female judge in Vegas, who started asking questions in the middle of a fight on what was happening with the grappling. She didn't have any clue what was going on.

Many of these judges are boxing judges, completely cluless when it comes to grappling.

That's fuckin absurd

 

[Sham5916910]

Lefontes - any idea on when Frankenstein is arriving in Denver? Cheers buddy.

 

[Monster Meat]

Masvidal is tough but it seems like some are just expecting cerrone to just fall off all of a sudden. He has run through very tough guys at ww and before those fights I have heard all of the same things as to why he would lose (weak to the body, forward pressure, southpaw, etc) All he did was finish all these guys in impressive fashion and yet people are still underestimating him. I just haven't seen enough from masvidal to make me think he will win this fight. Cerrone is on a hell of a roll and with a win here he is either next in line for a title shot or one more fight away. I think masvidal is going to come into this fight and be overaggressive and get caught.

 

[rille31]

That's fuckin absurd

the judge was boxing judge adelaide byrd, known for favouring fighters of colour

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/11/...-byrd-to-judge-lomachenko-walters-boxing-news

 

[Ukram]

yes and i think that plays right into penas strength. I think pena will get early takedown and that will slow down shev's striking. Worrying about the takedown fucks with many strikers especially when they are aggressive. I just think pena is a bad match up for her. If pena can not take her down fairly early i do agree shev should take over the fight, I just do not believe she will be able to stop the takedown.

This is exactly how I originally thought of shev vs pena, just a bad style wise for shev but I am still in several minds about it more so after watching tape, ill touch up on it bit later.

I listened to Mas interview on Joey Diaz' podcast. He was adamant it wont hit the cards and i tend to believe him. Mas cant afford to drop a close decision. He knows this is a make or break fight for him.

I don't trust mas for saying he will get a finish, no doubt mas knows if he wants ufc gold he needs to finish cowboy though but masvidal is just as bad as pearson is when it comes to split decisions.
Quick glance at that numbers, masvidal has 8 decisions in last 10 fights.

Starting to think the overs and split decision props are worth it here.

I just wish that fight had gone into the 2nd or 3rd round so we could see if he kept up that ferocious pace.

That pace would have reduced I reckon, mas has always had his tentative or lack of output moments or almost taking a round off but recently he appears to have tweaked it so he fights more conserved during rounds and has burst of aggressions, its that tweak imo that has allowed masvidal to actually win actual decisions rather then split lose them.

 

[Sham5916910]

im looking forward to researching pena shev. my memory is so bad of them both i have no pre-conceived lean.

 

[waiguoren]

The general fan thinks a lot of sub attempts are closer than they are. My guess is that judges do as well. If someone from guard is throwing up their legs at all, it will probably be considered a sub attempt.

So true. The "guillotine" from Rd. 1 of GSP-Hendricks comes to mind. I remember arguing with people in the Heavies for days about that shit.

 

[Cptn1NSAN0]

I can't bet Nate i watched his last three fights and his volume is worse than Alvey. If it weren't for his low kicks he would barely throw anything. His chin is also gone CB staggered him, Santos folded him like a chair and even Barncat seemed to stun him. I'd take Alvey at evens but hes overpriced. As Nate is so tentative and Alvey counter strikes this could turn into a staring contest. I cant fault a play on Nate dec tho.

I disagree, Nate has mixed toolbag of attacks that he cycles between while Alvey has such a limited arsenal, basically just L and R counter hooks and a left straight. I just watched their laat few fights as well and I remember Nate having a lot more successful offense against Barncat than Alvey did against Nicholson. Granted it was a longer fight so more strikes were thrown, but I saw Nate as the much more effective guy in a shorter period of time. Nicholson was giving Alvey fits with his long range attacks and movement, I think Nate can fight a similar fight against him.

The only thing that worries me is Nate just getting sparked out in Rd 1, when he gets tagged he tends to retreat with his hands down and Alvey's got some good pop in Rd 1. On the other hand Alvey has very little regard for defense himself and often enters the pocket with his chin up, Nate has a really fast and powerful right overhand that he loves to bait guys into walking right in to. I could see either guy finishing here, so not touching the over

 

[Stunna77]

Masvidal has exactly 3 finishes in 16 UFC/Strikeforce fights, while Cerrone has 17 finishes in 33 WEC/UFC fights. Unreal actually how many fights Cerrone has against top level competition.

Point being I do not see Mas finishing Cowboy just because he looked semi-aggressive against a passive and shot Berger. He could definitely use his tighter boxing to outpoint cowboy and I think that is his best path to victory, but Cerrone has a much more varied attack and is the better grappler. Cerrone has been prone to off nights before and if headkick KOing Matt Brown is what he looks like on an off night, I'll take it. I do not see him just falling off a cliff at 33, plus Mas has MORE fights than Cerrone does and is roughly the same age. I'm guessing he looks on point in his home state as well. Just need that line to come down a bit..

 

[waiguoren]

Mas's one KO loss is bs it was a terrible stoppage. In my mind he has never been stopped.

wait, didn't Tony Imada choke him out with a reverse triangle?

 

[Sham5916910]

I disagree, Nate has mixed toolbag of attacks that he cycles between while Alvey has such a limited arsenal, basically just L and R counter hooks and a left straight. I just watched their laat few fights as well and I remember Nate having a lot more successful offense against Barncat than Alvey did against Nicholson. Granted it was a longer fight so more strikes were thrown, but I saw Nate as the much more effective guy in a shorter period of time. Nicholson was giving Alvey fits with his long range attacks and movement, I think Nate can fight a similar fight against him.

The only thing that worries me is Nate just getting sparked out in Rd 1, when he gets tagged he tends to retreat with his hands down and Alvey's got some good pop in Rd 1. On the other hand Alvey has very little regard for defense himself and often enters the pocket with his chin up, Nate has a really fast and powerful right overhand that he loves to bait guys into walking right in to. I could see either guy finishing here, so not touching the over

Nicholson for all his faults hits EXTREMELY hard. He knocked out the guy he fought in his UFC debut with one of the shortest punches i've ever seen and outside the UFC he knocked out UFC HW Sherman. Barncat is not a puncher so Nate will have been more willing to engage as opposed to when he fought Santos. I expect him to be very hesitant against Alvey due to Alvey's power. Nate knows his chin has gone and i didn't say much more output from him against Barncat anyway. You can't compare fighting Nicholson and Barncat as Alvey would happily walk through Barncat's shots. I'd be very surprised if Nate stops Alvey too. I'm expecting a boring staring contest. Hopefully Alvey catches him tho to save us all that pain.

 

[Sham5916910]

wait, didn't Tony Imada choke him out with a reverse triangle?

I mean by punches.

 

[Sham5916910]

I'm mulling over unit size and obviously line dependent but im on Jordan Johnson. Frankenstein's tdd is non existent and he invites the takedown with the way he plods forward, and his high guard when someone feints or actually throws punches. Jordan is an All American div 1 wrestler and im pretty confident Frankenstein is getting wrestlefucked here. First person that didn't want to engage Frank on the feet (Craig) absolutely bossed him, and that's a Scottish guy who probably learnt how to double leg three years ago. If you go back a year and watch Frank's last fight before his UFC debut against Alcantara (a WW i might add) he got taken down with ease. He only won as Alcantara was totally exhausted (they both were - some things never change for Frank eh?) and seemed to collapse from exhaustion. This is in Denver too and Jordan has been there since 10th Jan - I assume Frank will fly in early next week. Jordan has trained at MMA Lab, Power MMA and Alliance. Vitor has also used him for a number of training camps too.

I also feel like Frank is being poorly managed. This is his 5th fight in a year and every fight in that spell has been a tough fight. Before the Craig fight he had been dropped in three consecutive fights and even Craig busted his face up. The Craig fight was two months ago so he's had no chance to work on cardio, tdd, movement or this high guard when on the defensive that leaves him wide open for takedowns. He has also shown no ability to cage walk to get back to his feet. I don't think the kind of reversal he hit on Wilson is going to work against a real heavy wrestler when he's on top of you. When he gets taken down he flops straight to his back.

Jordan is lacking in the stand up department but Frank is not a one punch type guy. I really see Jordan taking him down at will and Frank drowning in the thin air of Denver. Frank gassed worse than normal against Craig and i think that was because of the grappling approach. Having a big lump who's a div 1 wrestler is certainly going to make you exhausted if you can't cope with a Scottish grappler on top of you. Jordan seemed to slow in his penultimate fight but he looked much better in his last fight which was a five rounder.

 

[cCrown]

I'm mulling over unit size and obviously line dependent but im on Jordan Johnson.

Jordan johnson is +145 on ohmbet.

 

[Sham5916910]

Jordan johnson is +145 on ohmbet.

Yeah I heard - let's see what the real bookies serve up tho.

 

[LEMONZEST]

My fear is unloading on Mas and him reverting to type. He does seem the right kind of crazy tho (being an ex bare knuckle fighter) to be able to change how he fights, and he came out super aggressive against Berger. I just wish that fight had gone into the 2nd or 3rd round so we could see if he kept up that ferocious pace.

I think Mas has turned a new leaf and is going to be really agressive now. I can understand why others my disagree basede on past decisions. I am also considering the ITD play as I think Cerrone can aslo stop Mas if he gets reckless.

 

[MMA Gambling Expert]

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[Joseph Budden]

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[wack3d]

poor EZ