UFC Fox 23 - Pena vs Shevchenko - Denver

[Sham5916910]

Iron sharpens iron. You have to spar to be ready for a big fight. Confidence increase Cerrone.

Light sparring yes as in just moving around, you don't need to spar hard when you are a vet like Mas. Hard sparring takes way too much out of you and subsequently your career/chin. We have countless examples of this in MMA.

 

[Shoulder]

I promised myself I would stop throwing money on small bets with high odds but fuck that.

Ngannou is super powerful and all, but I still think Arlovski will get to touch that chin. Arlovski with all his flaws is still at super good boxer, and I expect him to come in with a stick and move-gameplan. Ngannou will be looking for the clinch and takedown I assume, but to get there he ill be there to hit by Arlovski.

I'm not sure of Ngannous chin, and even if Arlovskis is gone by now he is a different level of striker than someone like Bojan Mihajlovic.

0,5U @4.00. The KO line is 5.00 for Arlov, but if I bet that I will just get a crazy heelhook or win a dec.

 

[Sham5916910]

I promised myself I would stop throwing money on small bets with high odds but fuck that.

Ngannou is super powerful and all, but I still think Arlovski will get to touch that chin. Arlovski with all his flaws is still at super good boxer, and I expect him to come in with a stick and move-gameplan. Ngannou will be looking for the clinch and takedown I assume, but to get there he ill be there to hit by Arlovski.

I'm not sure of Ngannous chin, and even if Arlovskis is gone by now he is a different level of striker than someone like Bojan Mihajlovic.

0,5U @4.00. The KO line is 5.00 for Arlov, but if I bet that I will just get a crazy heelhook or win a dec.

Ngannou will not look for the clinch and takedown. He will be looking for the knock out. I watched Arlovski's last four fights last night, as i was considering parlaying Ngannou. I still think Ngannou wins, but I JUST saw enough in the old dog Arlovski coupled with the elevation and no proof what Ngannou's chin is like to stop me doing so.

 

[rille31]

Cottrell was finished by a similar striker before and Gonzalez is a white belt on the mat.

I thought Gonz was a sub guy, most wins are by sub and looked like he had below average striking from the tape I watched, great reach but just winging punches hitting air, did have a decent left kick but thats about it.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

You might be right, but caceras has such better movement than Alers who is a zombie, and hooker a guy who throws one strike at a time.

For me there is perhaps value in caceras, since he had a good fight with yair and has good cardio. He might be better at countering knight than hooker was. I haven't bet it yet tho.

Caceres is a touch n go type guy. I don't think his power is enough to get Knight to back off of him.

Here's the thing about Knight, he's a guy that goes to his guard by default. If you attempt to take him down he throws up a rubber guard and works from there. Because he's so willing to go to his guard he freely strikes without worry about someone ducking under and taking him down. He's allowed to throw combinations. Now most other fighters who don't work a guard game sometimes pulls back on their punches or tend to not throw in combination in fear of getting taken down. Knight has no restrictions. Whether he traps someone in his rubber guard or he gets pounded with his back on the mat, that's how his game goes.

Now of course Caceres doesn't usually shoot TDs anyways but he's still gotta deal with someone in his face for the full 15. I think Knight will make this a brawl and Caceres can't back peddle forever. Sure he's got some finesse to his game but he's not going to win this fight moving backwards.

I also think Knight could catch his TDs too somewhere in this fight when things get goin'.

All that said, with talks of a deviated septum has kinda put a damper on the bet, and additionally I would've preferred to play Knight at -115/130ish. I'm still picking him to win. He's really motivated to move up the rankings and he will fight for your money. Caceres has an ugly record for good reason he is batting .500 in his UFC career thus far and his inconsistency could rear its head here.

Just my opinion at least. Not saying he's going to be the best fighter but Knight has some redeeming qualities that might help him in 2017 where being on your back isn't an auto loss according to judges. His attack-mode style wins him this fight IMO and I believe there's a chance at a finish too.

 

[oliverinsix]

Regarding all the talk about elevation and climatizing, Shevchenko grew up and has done the majority of her training throughout her career in Kyrgyzstan which she mentioned was a highly mountainous region in an interview she did on FightNetwork. A quick Google search shows the mean elevation of Kyrgyzstan to be 1,750 meters which converts to ~5,700 feet which is almost exactly comparable to Denver, Colorado which registers between the range of 5,130 and 5,690 feet in elevation.

 

[Shoulder]

Ngannou will not look for the clinch and takedown. He will be looking for the knock out. I watched Arlovski's last four fights last night, as i was considering parlaying Ngannou. I still think Ngannou wins, but I JUST saw enough in the old dog Arlovski coupled with the elevation and no proof what Ngannou's chin is like to stop me doing so.

You think? If I were him thats how I would do it. He should be so much bigger and stronger that it should be his comfort zone. But if he looks for a striking battle I feel better about Arlovskis chances.

Arlovski might be on a losing streak, but he turned that ship around before and he was pretty close to KOing Barnett.

 

[Sham5916910]

You think? If I were him thats how I would do it. He should be so much bigger and stronger that it should be his comfort zone. But if he looks for a striking battle I feel better about Arlovskis chances.

Arlovski might be on a losing streak, but he turned that ship around before and he was pretty close to KOing Barnett.

I am positive Ngannou has no intention of taking him down.

 

[vkram]

You think? If I were him thats how I would do it. He should be so much bigger and stronger that it should be his comfort zone. But if he looks for a striking battle I feel better about Arlovskis chances.

Arlovski might be on a losing streak, but he turned that ship around before and he was pretty close to KOing Barnett.

Ngannou hasn't really tried to grapple inside the octagon, Hamilton initiated the clinch from what I remember. I'm sure Ngannou and his coaches think AA has a weak chin and they can get him out early if Ngannou connects.

 

[Xuh]

Anyone like Arlovski by dec though? 15.00 is pretty extreme (well, best I can get is 13.00.... still good enough).
Ngannou is a big, muscular, lumbering, explosive-athletic dude, I could see him struggling if it gets to rd 2.
Maybe Arlovski will dance around the outside all night long, shadowboxing and doing the Greg Jackson 'sport killer' all the way to a 29-28 unan dec.

...No? Oh well....
0.2u Arlovski dec, anyway (plus 0.2u Arlovski SU)
Confidence level: Yuge

 

[vkram]

Anyone like Arlovski by dec though? 15.00 is pretty extreme (well, best I can get is 13.00.... still good enough).
Ngannou is a big, muscular, lumbering, explosive-athletic dude, I could see him struggling if it gets to rd 2.
Maybe Arlovski will dance around the outside all night long, shadowboxing and doing the Greg Jackson 'sport killer' all the way to a 29-28 unan dec.

...No? Oh well....
0.2u Arlovski dec, anyway (plus 0.2u Arlovski SU)
Confidence level: Yuge

AA's cardio isn't great either to be honest.

 

[Shoulder]

Ngannou hasn't really tried to grapple inside the octagon, Hamilton initiated the clinch from what I remember. I'm sure Ngannou and his coaches think AA has a weak chin and they can get him out early if Ngannou connects.

Maybe that's how it is, my memory isnt always the best since I mostly watch the fights live in the at 04.30.

I totally see this ending ITD, no way it goes three with so much power and skill in there.

 

[Sham5916910]

Anyone like Arlovski by dec though? 15.00 is pretty extreme (well, best I can get is 13.00.... still good enough).
Ngannou is a big, muscular, lumbering, explosive-athletic dude, I could see him struggling if it gets to rd 2.
Maybe Arlovski will dance around the outside all night long, shadowboxing and doing the Greg Jackson 'sport killer' all the way to a 29-28 unan dec.

...No? Oh well....
0.2u Arlovski dec, anyway (plus 0.2u Arlovski SU)
Confidence level: Yuge

I actually thought about this myself. If both are gassed after r1 we could have a slow staring contest. I thinks it's worth a stab especially if you live bet end of r1.

 

[Basek]

Just watched last fight on my list Li vs his last opponent he defeated by KO - Anton Zafir.
And I am totally convinced now..Li's takedown defence is so shitty I can't even describe it . He was taken to the ground so easy like an amateur.

And now by who : Zafir is fucking part time mma fighter ! school teacher and even vegetarian loel his not even pro?! How the fuck he get in the UFC ?!

Imagine what D1 top wrestler will do to him... just counting on Bobby that he will not try test his boxing progress lol but just g&p motherfucker.

All analysts says about volume speed perfect technic of Li's striking - I must be kurwa blind. Also Nash will have 5.5 inch reach adv.

Stabbing Nash by KO/Sub , when bet365 give me chance.

 

[Sham5916910]

From what i have seen Nash's wrestling hasn't transitioned that well to MMA. He has also shown poor ability to maintain top control in fights. Li is pretty good at getting back to his feet. I'd be pretty surprised based on footage i have seen on Nash if he takes Li down and keeps him down. He's young and improving I'm sure, but Li is a tough debut fight and I am not convinced Nash is UFC level. Li has some decent takedowns himself and some evil gnp. I think he is more than capable of taking Nash down.

 

[Basek]

Well I was also "sure" that Frankenstein will destroy Craig... so maybe another humble pie is awaiting for me
But at this moment after so much research Nash looks for me like huge favorite. I want that risk!

 

[Officer_Brown]

Who ever is betting little bit on AA is not stupid at all. AA trains at altitude all the time while Ngannou not. This fight could be like Swanson vs Choi. Huge prospect gets a big step up in competition. Ngannou prefers striking and this is good for AA. AA can still box and brawl. I dont think ngannou can Barnett Arlovski. People dont know that Ngannou has trained MMA only for few years. He has power but you dont get good at grappling with this short amount of time. Ngannou basically out muscled Hamilton. Not sure he can do it to Andrei

 

[Card]

More predictions

 

[Sham5916910]

Well I was also "sure" that Frankenstein will destroy Craig... so maybe another humble pie is awaiting for me
But at this moment after so much research Nash looks for me like huge favorite. I want that risk!

You can never be sure about Frankenstein no matter who he fights!

 

[Card]

Lord GambLou picks Shevchenko, Cerrone, small bet on Arlovski, Caceres, Sterling