UFC FN - Whittaker vs Aliskerov (June 22nd)

[Guld]

 

[mkess101]

Honestly, doesn't look like a great card for betting or DFS. Can't say for sure on DFS until we see lines but I don't see any potential no-brainers like the WMMA fight last night.

Only thing I'm initially thinking is that Gastelum is too juiced over D Rod at this point in each of their careers. IDK though, that's just a quick gut reaction take.

 

[sonhow]

Is Ikram getting a bit too much respect coming in vs Rob? Is his striking good enough to beat him? Remember that Rob has never been outwrestled. I gave Khamzat somewhat of a chance to do it but not Ikram.
I guess the play would be Rob ml -Ikram ko small hedge.
There's something to the fact that the muslim fighters never lose big fights in that part of the world though. So might need to think it over. Any counter argument is welcome- Always better when someone tells me that I'm wrong beforehand rather than going to fight confident and getting surprised.

 

[mkess101]

Is Ikram getting a bit too much respect coming in vs Rob? Is his striking good enough to beat him? Remember that Rob has never been outwrestled. I gave Khamzat somewhat of a chance to do it but not Ikram.
I guess the play would be Rob ml -Ikram ko small hedge.
There's something to the fact that the muslim fighters never lose big fights in that part of the world though. So might need to think it over. Any counter argument is welcome- Always better when someone tells me that I'm wrong beforehand rather than going to fight confident and getting surprised.

In my own self analysis, I've realized I have been kinda shitty lately at gauging these "red hot prospects vs once (maybe still) elite vets that could possibly be descending". This fight has the added aspect of having super close odds so you can't say "well shit so and so is +300 so no reason not to take a small stab".

Basically, I'll probably pass altogether. Betting and DFS. Cannonier looked great for a couple rounds and was -600 live, only to get stung and finished (albeit a questionable one) by the young lion a bit later.

It's the ME so everyone is gonna want some action but imo there's gonna be better spots even on a card that I don't like a lot for betting.

 

[Thesnake101]

Honestly, doesn't look like a great card for betting or DFS. Can't say for sure on DFS until we see lines but I don't see any potential no-brainers like the WMMA fight last night.

Only thing I'm initially thinking is that Gastelum is too juiced over D Rod at this point in each of their careers. IDK though, that's just a quick gut reaction take.

D-rod is 37 and coming off a positive test plus getting melted by Garry in the first. Before that he also engaged in a sparring match with Li that many thought he lost.

I actually think Kelvin is one of the safer picks of the card, they made this matchup with the sole purpose of getting him a win.

 

[Guld]

D-rod is 37 and coming off a positive test plus getting melted by Garry in the first. Before that he also engaged in a sparring match with Li that many thought he lost.

I actually think Kelvin is one of the safer picks of the card, they made this matchup with the sole purpose of getting him a win.

I agree with this take, but I don't know if I even trust Kelvin to win a layup match at this point haha.

Is Ikram getting a bit too much respect coming in vs Rob? Is his striking good enough to beat him? Remember that Rob has never been outwrestled. I gave Khamzat somewhat of a chance to do it but not Ikram.
I guess the play would be Rob ml -Ikram ko small hedge.
There's something to the fact that the muslim fighters never lose big fights in that part of the world though. So might need to think it over. Any counter argument is welcome- Always better when someone tells me that I'm wrong beforehand rather than going to fight confident and getting surprised.

This is very much a "Prime Rob would win this handedly, but current Rob seems to get wobbled every fight now. Do you want to risk it?"
I'd suggest keeping the risk low, regardless of which fighter anyone backs on this one.

 

[Guld]

So far I've only thrown a small parlay on Walker+Gastelum+Pavlovich+Whittaker, and I'll just hedge bet when appropriate.

 

[sonhow]

I agree with this take, but I don't know if I even trust Kelvin to win a layup match at this point haha.


This is very much a "Prime Rob would win this handedly, but current Rob seems to get wobbled every fight now. Do you want to risk it?"
I'd suggest keeping the risk low, regardless of which fighter anyone backs on this one.

But he still gets wobbled by solid competition. Ikram seems solid as well but at mw he would join the ranks of Izzy and DDP. No one else has beaten him. Ikrams wins are over Hawes and Warley Alves. Other one flash ko and other one a complete bullrush into quitting vs Alves. This is some of the biggest leaps in competition that I've seen in ufc. It can happen for sure -it basically happens all the time - but I just feel I need to see more from Ikram to believe he is top 5 in the div after 3 fights.

 

[Thesnake101]

But he still gets wobbled by solid competition. Ikram seems solid as well but at mw he would join the ranks of Izzy and DDP. No one else has beaten him. Ikrams wins are over Hawes and Warley Alves. Other one flash ko and other one a complete bullrush into quitting vs Alves. This is some of the biggest leaps in competition that I've seen in ufc. It can happen for sure -it basically happens all the time - but I just feel I need to see more from Ikram to believe he is top 5 in the div after 3 fights.

It might be a repeat of Abus vs Strickland, the short-notice thing makes it interesting, but I think that favors Whittaker by a lot. He was already preparing for a hulking wrestler with KO power, Ikram instead was preparing for BJJ guys.

 

[Guld]

But he still gets wobbled by solid competition. Ikram seems solid as well but at mw he would join the ranks of Izzy and DDP. No one else has beaten him. Ikrams wins are over Hawes and Warley Alves. Other one flash ko and other one a complete bullrush into quitting vs Alves. This is some of the biggest leaps in competition that I've seen in ufc. It can happen for sure -it basically happens all the time - but I just feel I need to see more from Ikram to believe he is top 5 in the div after 3 fights.

I agree with that point as well. Even when Whittaker took on Vettori he never once seemed to be in any real trouble (that I can recall), and I'd probably favor Vettori over Ikram as well.

 

[mkess101]

D-rod is 37 and coming off a positive test plus getting melted by Garry in the first. Before that he also engaged in a sparring match with Li that many thought he lost.

I actually think Kelvin is one of the safer picks of the card, they made this matchup with the sole purpose of getting him a win.

I don't see it. (Not Kelvin winning- I see that, I just don't agree with anyone paying -2xx juice on him here). Kelvin has zero killer instinct anymore. He just fights to sort of "be there and get paid". I think him winning a decision is pretty likely so I won't bet D Rod but no way do I want to pay this juice on a guy who only wants to strike and has little finishing upside. I expect this to look like the sparring match with Li, maybe Kelvin being a little more busy.

I'll probably target it on DFS a couple ways, mostly fading Kelvin's chances of finishing.

 

[Stat_Collector]

D-rod is 37 and coming off a positive test plus getting melted by Garry in the first. Before that he also engaged in a sparring match with Li that many thought he lost.

I actually think Kelvin is one of the safer picks of the card, they made this matchup with the sole purpose of getting him a win.

Kelvin is lacking in two areas that you need to beat D-rod.

Size to match, height or reach, physicality.

Heavy hands power, or size strength to grapple and cage stall like Magney.

Kelvin has the slightly better chin/age , and wrestling, other than that, i would not rate his boxing better or worst than D-rods, and the wrestling edge is not that far wide. D-rod has solid tdd.

So if i'm being honest, considering D-rod trains also in Syndicate mma with decent training partners, i think he's one of the few dogs on this card that can upset the favorite.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Long-dec
Dumas-dec
Gadz-dec
Kang-dec
Fahk-dec
Haqrspat-dec
Walker-dec
Naimov-dec
Magomedov-dec
Rodriguez-dec
Paclovich-ko1
Aliskerov-ko1

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[PuertoRican]

Many cancelled fights on this card. Last two events have been plagued with cancellations.

 

[PuertoRican]

 

[Macaque]

Felipe is very solid, but will be undersized.

 

[BigSteve]

I usually do a podcast end of the week with all my bets. I will be doing that this week again with Pepe ( OG from this forum ).

This week I started doing an early look for the card with minimal tape. Sometimes my pre-tape leans end up accurate, so why not?

If anyone is interested in some early week fight discussion:

 

[Georges Hefner]

I usually do a podcast end of the week with all my bets. I will be doing that this week again with Pepe ( OG from this forum ).

This week I started doing an early look for the card with minimal tape. Sometimes my pre-tape leans end up accurate, so why not?

If anyone is interested in some early week fight discussion:

That Aliskerov pick is wiki capping nonsense. Do u even watch tape? Its these bullshit bets that u make like Cesar almeida that lose the community money. U conned Suga daddy big time , he cashed out from betting on Kopylov. Here i have receipts

 

[Georges Hefner]

Also Im so confused about your Ozdemir vs Walker prediction. Who did you pick? Its so much gibberish nonsense. Like its very confusing the way you talk. I hope you didnt pick that slow stuck in the mud Turk . Its very obvious Walker is gonna win. U have to be a fucking fool to pick Volkan