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UFC FN: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Curtis Blaydes, April 22

Pavlovich vs Blaydes is a banger, hard to gauge where Pavlovich's TDD is now.

My prediction: It's not gonna be a banger. It's gonna be a blowout one way or another. Pavlovich either koes him early or gets wrestle fucked until he gets finished.

I thought Izzy/ Alex was gonna go over so I could be wrong lol.
 
perreira ruined bruno's career with how many bombs he landed, he looked horrible vs gm3 on the feet ultimately getting ko'd and subbed in the same fight. I think tavares is way way too sharp on the feet for him (also impossible to takedown eliminating grappling ptv) and he'll get his first ko in a long time.

I got Silva so you prob right lol
 
What about pavovlich vs Jones lol

Haha I'd actually rethink the Gane bet now. He went full beta vs Jones. Looked scared, like he didn't want to be there.

I'd need a pretty sweet line to bet Pavlovich vs Jones. It's probably just betting he's able to rush in and land bombs before being taken down and destroyed on the ground.
 
im going to give this card my all.

'No time for jokes, no time for fun, I'm focused, I make him pay! (the bookies i mean)
 
#UFCVegas71

Matthew Semelsberger +110 has 1.1811 inch reach advantage, 3.937 inches taller, 6 years younger

https://www.tapology.com/fightcente...miah-wells-vs-matt-semi-the-jedi-semelsberger

Matthew Semelsberger on Jeremiah Wells, signing new 4-fight UFC contract:

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Generated subtitles here:

this is my next guest is back in action Jeremiah Wells UFC Fight Night April 22nd it's right around the corner it's Matt Semelsberger back here on the program Matt how are you good James how about you bro doing awesome a bit of familiarity here with your opponent I would imagine maybe a little bit just because I I know you guys both fought in cffc how much did you know about uh Jeremiah before taking this fight oh a lot about him um he was a guy that I was kind of eyeing up when I was on the regional circuit thinking maybe I might fight him uh for like a cffc title shot or something like that but then I got the call up to the UFC um and when he got called up it wasn't a surprise it was like um he's a guy that I've had my eye on for a while and I figured that at some point like my intuition was like we'll probably meet each other yeah yeah exactly no and here you are finally uh you know getting it done tonight by the way shout out to cffc and so many other Regional promotions that actually do good matchmaking like like you said like you just see the the cream rise of the crop here and I mean there's so many Mainstays from that promotion that are in the UFC like yourself oh yeah big time man cffc is a huge one obviously there's the other one LFA um you know there's a bunch of them now they're seems like there's getting more and more uh events that are being put on that have just like really really good Fighters man you know like you got uh like Anthony Pettis has got his own fighting thing uh basketball has his uh yeah man there's a ton of them I agree uh let's talk about your last fight man I know it was a while ago but Jake Matthews what a win that was I know Matthew's had a lot of momentum you went out there you got it done how satisfying was that victory it was very satisfying man um part of all like partly satisfying um but also like um not in a way um but in terms of bouncing back after the loss against morono it was huge for me um and just like growing as as an MMA fighter I was able to kind of mix in uh a little bit more of my tools uh than I normally do um that was kind of an adjustment I wanted to make after the morono fight um so yeah man it felt really good getting the win especially against a guy like Jake who's uh who's super tough and he's been around the company and he's had a lot of experience in the in the octagon let's talk about Jeremiah Wells like you said you've known about him for a while uh how do you feel like you match up against him here I think I match up very well against him but he's a scary dude man um he's got scary power in his hands and he's got very very good grappling he comes from uh one of the best grappling places you could come from whether you're talking about the us or um or just the country or I'm sorry uh the planet as a whole so he comes from a really really good gym he's got a lot of UFC guys that he's working with um so I'm expecting it to be a very tough matchup but at the same time man I have full faith in uh my own training my own gym I got a bunch of stud Grapplers and a bunch of stud Brazilian Jiu Jitsu players from crazy88 which um in the Jiu Jitsu world we are very well known uh especially in the States but um yeah man we've got multiple world champions so I've been grinding with my grappling guys that 88 getting ready to Grapple if I need to but um of course man I love to strike so that's gonna what I'm gonna be looking to do if I can um but yeah dude it's gonna be a fun matchup it's scary uh I see a very very good possibility of one of us losing Consciousness so it's uh it's it's got me it got me hyped up man it's got me scared but in a good way yeah no rising to the challenge right which is great and that's you know again not underestimating the opponent which is a good thing too so we'll see obviously a really good fight here uh who are some of the names you get to work with you mentioned some of the training Partners who are who are like if you're doing a little roll call here who are you getting to work with uh well I don't want to like put too many names out there and stuff like that because man I've just been ground grinding a lot of my coaches uh grinding a lot with my teammates um at crazy88 um so we got a lot of up and coming guys that were that were just trying to bring up and and get on a higher level that you know in turn is going to help me it's going to help some of the higher level guys in the gym so that's what's cool about Crazy 88 and where we're at with that but um it's cool man I've been got I've been getting to move around like the DMV area and train with some other gyms um out of respect for my own gym I'm not gonna name drop anybody really for sure um I've been um grinding with a bunch of UFC Bellator high level kick boxers high level Grapplers um and that's the cool thing about like Maryland and the East Coast I really like the Mid-Atlantic man we just got hot spots everywhere with you know really talented Strikers talented Grapplers talented MMA fighters um so I've been moving around I've been getting a lot of different looks from a lot of different people um because I feel like and this fight could go anywhere um so I want to be prepared uh anywhere it goes the weight cut uh fights next Saturday how's all that going good man uh I'm big right now though I'm not gonna lie uh but in a good way man like some fights um I want to be a little bit smaller going in and then other fights I like being a little bit heavier and have a little bit bigger frame going into uh some other ones so um that's I guess a little bit of a strategy move depending on who I'm fighting but um I I like to try to stay a little bit bigger nowadays especially because like like if I didn't have to cut weight that'd be awesome but the reality of the sport is like size Advantage is a very very very important thing in a fight or at least having uh equal size as your opponent so um I'm pretty big right now but that won't be an issue with the wake up man I've never missed weight before um and I've gotten it down to a science now so excellent um who's gonna be in your corner for this fight are you allowed to mention that again I don't think that's revealing too much um so normally my big brother is with me this time I will not have my big brother with me he's going to be back home uh taking care of some things in his own uh in his own life in his own book um so I'm gonna have John Doe Bruges uh Sebastian Ramirez those are my two main coaches who uh who are always out with me and then I'm gonna bring along um my teammate Josh Jackson who's a professional welterweight uh with a record of seven and three and he trains uh and lives very close to me he came up uh in the Frederick County area much like I did and I'm being very honest man he's right on the brink of you know another win uh or two away from getting a call up to to the UFC or someone big man I got a lot of faith in him so I wanted to bring him out um and let him experience what it's like in the UFC fight week because um he's he's going to be next um how's this fight planted on April 22nd I don't think this one's hitting the scorecards no no um I had I kind of had this thing in me right now where I'm like man I gotta take some risks I got to just open up and let my let my fly so someone's going out I don't know if it's gonna be me I don't know if it's gonna be him I've made peace with the fact that I might get slept on April 22nd but at the same time man I'm gonna be coming out guns blazing and I'm gonna be fighting smart and I'm gonna be fighting hard speaking of getting slept what'd you think of Israel out of song you're not going to prayer last weekend dude that was crazy that was actually um that was amazing to watch him kind of play possum against the fence there and then um it was easier to see slow motion but just like him being so smart enough and and just being calm enough to not open up and overreact to anything that uh Pereira was throwing and then just like the slightest little bit of a lead hand hook and then bang that right hand just dropped down and finished it but it was amazing man shout out to Izzy uh props to him for for everything that he faced going to that fight and then going in and finally uh putting a stamp on that rivalry I was trying to remember how many more fights you have left on your contract what's the latest with that uh so I did after this last one I had had one left um but the UFC decided they wanted to go ahead and just um do a new contract oh congratulations so four fights six fights how many fights it's like four oh awesome good for you man what does that mean not everyone gets a second or third UFC contract so I mean you know that you got to feel good that you know you're a Mainstay here right to get another contract like that yeah man it's like um it's really cool like it's a blessing man for sure and it makes me feel good but at the same time it also it's like just like part of my brain man it also I have that voice in the back of my head that's like yeah well all right they they resigned you but that just means like the expectations and everything kind of go up a little bit and that's just naturally how life you know plays out as you climb levels but um so I'm very very stoked about it very happy about it but at the same time definitely like I I'm not feeling like I'm settling at all I gotta if anything like keep running and keep my feet going see I have the same mentality not with fighting but you know with this job like you know this could all go away at one point so I'm always having that in the back of my head so I can relate like obviously it's much different than getting punched in the face I'm not comparing that but I just mean I have the same mentality where it's like you know everything can be taken away at once you know so you gotta gotta kind of have that in you know kind of you talked about this earlier about the matchup and everything like taking risks and stuff do you think the UFC appreciates that and that's why they're giving you this contract as well is that you're not a guy who's laying and praying and you're trying to win points you're going out there and really trying to make it entertaining do you think that's part of it yeah for sure man um and don't get me wrong man like I I'm my biggest critic and I am definitely My Own Worst Enemy so it's like when I look back on fights I'm highly critical of myself and really man I'm not very impressed with myself even as much as I've done in the UFC and that's just like speaks to my competitive Fierce side of me that's like knows I'm capable of so much more um so maybe that's what they appreciate they maybe appreciate the growth and they can see that I'm I'm trying uh to grow both as an Entertainer but also as a fighter uh and a skilled fighter at that so um kind of playing that contrast between you know intensity and the stuff that gets people excited in fights but then also being smart enough uh and calculated and skillful man that's like I guess when you look at the highest levels of fighting that's what you see you know you get the best of both worlds so that's what I'm trying to bring uh to the table and I think you know maybe the UFC realizes that I'm dead serious about that. thank you all for the support I can't wait to throw down for everybody uh next weekend



"Semelsberger is a willing and aggressive slugger who struggles with the technical side of striking. He has real power in his hands and is able to explode with combinations that, if they land, can end the fight. He strikes with a contradictory blitz volume approach. Statistically, Semelsberger lands with high volume; but, during a fight, he tends to sit and wait for an opportunity, then blitzes forward with a big combination. This results in his stats showing high volume; but, in reality, Semelsberger tends to fight with more bouts of inactivity than expected. In short, Semelsberger is a powerful and explosive boxer with good hands and a good chin, but he could benefit from more consistent activity and better footwork. Because Semelsberger tends to wait and then burst, he will, at times, stand still or move linearly. Technical and fundamental strikers have been able to capitalize when Semelsberger stands still, as a stationary target, or moves linearly in a predictable way. Just like his striking, Semelsberger’s wrestling is successful when he’s offensive, but he struggles defensively. Semelsberger was an ex-D1 football player, so, unsurprisingly, he knows how time a shot and get a guy down. His wrestling, like his striking, relies on athleticism and timing over technique. Defensively, though, “Semi The Jedi” struggles to keep the fight standing. The bottom line, Semelsberger is a dangerous and fun brawler who can win fights with explosive movements but tends to lose them against more technical and multidimensional fighters"

"Wells on the feet is all about explosiveness and power. You will frequently see him throw superman punches. He likes to throw spinning attacks and flying knees as well. Wells fights mainly in bursts as he’ll barrage forward with output. Wells will usually end flurries in takedowns from the body lock. He’s such a powerhouse he can just force guys to the mat. There will be a lot of opponents in the UFC that won’t go down from a simple body lock however. And with Wells only being 5’9″ it’s going to be hard to close the distance rushing forward the way he does. When Wells completes takedowns his control is usually rock solid. He will at times ride out a position too long but his jiu-jitsu is pretty good. When he gets a dominant position like the mount his ground and pound are good and he has a dangerous RNC. His takedown defense needs improvement and off his back, he struggles. Wells does show good knowledge off his back but struggles to get out from underneath of good wrestlers. There are some fighters in the UFC Wells can beat, but his style will either win him fights or (more so) hold him back. Just being a blitzer with power and strength will only get you so far against top-notch fighters. The UFC welterweight he resembles in my opinion is Dwight Grant"
 
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UFC Vegas 71

From thebodylockmma, cagesidepress, verdict, etc:

Danaa Batgerel is an extremely aggressive fighter. He likes the overhand right and left hook as primary weapons, but he throws very wide and looping often. Yet inside these wide combinations, tight straight and a sharp hook appear and cut through his typical rhythm. Likely he will be the one to take control of the center of the cage, he pours on tremendous pressure and looks to trap his opponents against the fence so as to create opportunities where they cannot evade big punches. However, out in the open, these same punches often get him in trouble as when there is space to move away, he ends up chasing them and can get caught coming in. When he is hurt, he looks to utilize the front kick as a gap creator in order to recover. Danaa has a more wrestling-centric style with big takedowns, especially throws from the rear body lock and looking for the outside trip and following through with the power shots. On top, he has brutal ground and pound especially if he finds himself controlling his opponent in the turtle and defensively he is also exceptionally good at creating awkward positions where he can stall position and land strikes. a consistent problem he has faced is that he has a habit of head hunting and throwing very wide. Batgerel is constantly fainting and changing up his footwork, his punches come at odd angles and to some may look awkward and looping, but his pinpoint accuracy makes it all work. His timing is impeccable as well, and often you see him land massive strikes as his opponents exit or come in. Batgerel’s best combination is a looping overhand right into a rolling step and a left hook, often his first punch is used to direct his opponent laterally into the next strike. Danna is a striker first who does have decent wrestling and better ground and pound. He is a better counter striker who does well slipping punches and firing with his right hand. The Mongolian tends to be drawn into firefights often. While that is exciting and he does frequently find success, his head sits on that center line and he takes unnecessary damage. With Danaa, you will see him throw one to three punches and reset every time, making him too easy to read. His takedown defense at times is good but when it comes to chain wrestling defense that’s where he comes up short. He’s a good striker in terms of power and placement but lacks fundamentals.

Brady Hiestand has demonstrated the skill and determination to be one of the UFC’s most interesting prospects. The young talent can hold his own standing but his true strength is in his wrestling. Many of his striking weapons lead to this, most notably his boxing and front round kick. Hiestand will do a slight hop step to land off the front leg, keeping his opponents at bay and pressuring towards the fence where he can time the double leg. He is a great reactionary wrestler, which is why he is both extremely technical and quick. On top, his biggest strength is controlling the lower body of his opponents, even standing over his opponents his grip control on the ankles allows him to pass safely to half guard smoothly, and he maintains his control on the legs so as to not allow his opponents to hip escape. Side control and knee on belly are particularly strong areas for Hiestand, where he controls and can land brutal ground and pound. Relatively still young in his career, Hiestand does seem to gas out late in some fights, his style is reactionary and comfortable to him but it also requires consistent strength. He can wrestle without much thought so he does still have success late, but he may also walk into dangerous positions or strikes when he is in an area less familiar.

Cachoeira stands very crouched in her stance and loads up far more weight into her punches. wings her shots and drives through completely with her grounded stance. Her stance also allows her to quickly sprawl and force her opponents to re-engage on their feet. However, the biggest knock on her style is that because she knows she has finishing capabilities in her overhand right, she goes to the well too often, to the point where it becomes predictable. good in top position; Cachoeira, as one would expect, is far more concerned with landing damage than control, which means she will allow her opponents to scramble up as long as they eat punches on the way. Cachoeira will always pose a threat from the opening bell to the moment the fight is over. She throws with reckless abandon with enough weight in every shot to potentially spell the end. She stands crouched and extremely heavy in her stance so that she can rotate and drive through on all of her shots. This also allows her a bit of a head start on sprawling which is her primary means of defending takedowns. She is very aggressive and accurate, but tends to go back to her greatest weapon, the right cross a bit to the point of predictability. Her punches are stiff and sharp because they’re always up and loaded in her guard. On the lead, she tends to do very good at staying stable as she attacks, but when looking to counter her weight can sometimes over-extend over her front leg, making the best opportunity to either take her down or attack a leg is when she throws that counter right. The one big knock on Cachoeira’s skill set has been her grappling game, although it’s important to note that she has fought very good grapplers in the division, she does tend to look a step behind. This is largely due to her inclination to settle on her back and close her guard, hoping more for a referee to stand up sometimes than forcing her way to her feet.

Karine Silva is physically strong, a submission threat, dangerous off her back, has solid jiu-jitsu. Her cons are she is slow, has flat movement, gets pressed back easily, has questionable take down defense. She is 29 years old and will have 2 inch Reach advantage. She will be 2 inches shorter. Karine Silva submitted Poliana Botelho in the first round of her last fight with a D'Arce Choke.

Francis Marshall is a well-rounded fighter with reliable cardio and an ability to find the finish if the opening presents itself. Starting on the feet, as all fights do, tends to be more of a boxer than a kickboxer or Muay Thai striker. His movement is a bit stiff, especially early in fights, but he strikes in combination and the more he lets his hands go, the less robotic and more fluid his movement becomes. Marshall prefers to wrestle and grapple on the mat and is adept at chaining his striking and wrestling together. He’s shown a positive pattern of following up a multi-piece combination with a takedown attempt. Even if he is unsuccessful in the attempt, the ability to chain striking and wrestling together shows high-level ability and forces his opponent to defend multiple attacks. Further, Marshall’s strike-to-wrestle and wrestle-to-strike approach forces an opponent to defend for long periods of a fight. Since Marshall has proven he can keep up a high pressure and not only avoid fading but improve as the fight goes on, his style allows him to weaponize cardio. That cardio, coupled with his strong wrestling and intelligent top control makes getting a takedown often inevitable. Once he secures the takedown and gets the fight to the mat, he immediately looks to take the back. While his striking is fundamental and rigid, Marshall’s grappling is more rhythmic and fluid. While his submission game may be his best path to victory and the most identifiable positive aspect of his game, Marshall’s best attribute may be his pressure and ability to evolve as the fight progresses. Looking specifically at his DWCS fight, Marshall was slow on the feet, hittable early, and looked a little out-of-place while striking. Then, in round 2, Marshall took a more movement-heavy approach on the feet, found success with his hands, and turned a boxing match from a concern to a path to victory. He showed that he can land a stiff 1, 2 combination with precision and power. That ability to evolve mid-fight, coupled with his well-rounded game, makes him an exciting prospect. The concerns for Marshall, though, center around his rigidity on the feet and tendency to be a slower starter. It’s imperative that he defend himself intelligently, especially when he faces an aggressive fighter with more creative and natural striking. The bottom line is that Marshall is a well-rounded combination boxer who has strong wrestling and an ability to smoothly transition on the mat.

William Gomis didn’t really jump out to anyone until he beat Tobias Harila in 2021. Gomis has an exciting fighting style (nickname Jaguar) and is only just 25. He will turn 26 in June 2023. Gomis is a really dangerous guy when he blitzes forward and off his back foot. He throws a lot of good kicks and his hands compliment his offensive output. He does a fine job of always staying busy. Not the cleanest on the mat but he can wrestle and grapple when needed. It’s going be tough to figure out William Gomis on the feet where he’s so tricky. 3 inches taller than Marshall and 1 inch reach advantage.

Mohammed Usman has elite knockout power, but he doesn’t throw a ton of strikes. Mohammed Usman is the younger brother of former UFC Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman, and he had a career-best year in 2022. Usman participated in the 30th season of The Ultimate Fighter, where Juliana Pena coached him against team Amanda Nunes. "The Motor" would pick up two decision victories across the season, grinding himself a ticket to the TUF Finale, taking a main card slot on UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill. He would face fellow TUF teammate Zac Pauga and knock him unconscious at the beginning of the second round with a left hook, winning the tournament and the UFC contract. Now, Usman will face Tafa in his next matchup and will look to use his explosive striking and wrestling credentials to secure his second UFC win.

Junior Tafa is the younger brother of UFC Heavyweight fighter Justin Tafa, who recently secured a colossal knockout over Parker Porter at UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski. Although Tafa has only four MMA bouts, he's a former GLORY kickboxing fighter with a professional kickboxing record of 3-4 and a boxing record of 1-0-1. All four of Tafa's MMA victories have come by knockout, and he's yet to enter the third round. Not much is known about his MMA prowess, but many questions will be answered when he debuts in the octagon against Usman. "Juggernaught" will look to use his GLORY-level striking and knockout ability to secure victory in his UFC debut.

UFC Vegas 71

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/97433-ufc-fight-night
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/71563
 
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The Danaa line moved -165 to -135 they saw his fight with Alatengheili and notice how basic his grappling defense is. I have to agree but i can't write off a bet for Brady who looks sloppy on the feet. Looks like two guys who stylistically match well , one having the counter strength to the other's weakness. And for that reason I'm Out.
Pass
 
I haven't bet in ages but now I put a hundred on Semelsberger hoping that as ex football player he'll survive the initial bumrush and takes Wells into deep waters.
<Goldie11>
 
I haven't bet in ages but now I put a hundred on Semelsberger hoping that as ex football player he'll survive the initial bumrush and takes Wells into deep waters.
<Goldie11>
He survived Khaos Williams without even getting rocked, so he might do it.

There's the chance Wells resorts to his grappling instead though, like he did against Poop Diamond.
 
He survived Khaos Williams without even getting rocked, so he might do it.

There's the chance Wells resorts to his grappling instead though, like he did against Poop Diamond.
The biggest concern for Semelsberger is the 4 td from Aj. That makes me wonder if he can fend away the grappling from Wells.
 
I think Bruno Silva had an off night against Meer.

If same Silva shows up that fought Poatan then Silva wins this fight. Love that +150 range price now. What is Tavares's path to victory?
 
I think Bruno Silva had an off night against Meer.

If same Silva shows up that fought Poatan then Silva wins this fight. Love that +150 range price now. What is Tavares's path to victory?
he took career altering damage from perreira so it wasn't too surprising seeing him look faded vs gm3, and i think that's the new norm with him. tavares is the much cleaner striker between the two, he will either outpoint bruno or ko him wouldn't be surprised by either outcome.
 
Watching more Semelsberger tape , cant honestly see how this fight is safe, he got mounted by Aj Fletcher and put in two guillotines, while he managed to squeeze away, i can't see him being so lucky with a Gracie guy who's never been koed.
 
he took career altering damage from perreira so it wasn't too surprising seeing him look faded vs gm3, and i think that's the new norm with him. tavares is the much cleaner striker between the two, he will either outpoint bruno or ko him wouldn't be surprised by either outcome.
Tavares took a beating from Du Plessis too and Bruno hits very hard. Tavares low key chinny too. I think it's crazy to bet Tavares at current price -200.
 
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