UFC FN 267: Strickland vs. Hernandez

[PuertoRican]

How.

He's paying +150 to win a decision.

You don't think the scenario that I described will occur if he gets into round 5 and is on his way to winning a decision?

He isn't saying the prop is bad, he's saying that you're getting a bad price for that specific outcome.

For example, maybe he'd bet the same prop at +500, but not at +350 because it's a bad price.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

He isn't saying the prop is bad, he's saying that you're getting a bad price for that specific outcome.

For example, maybe he'd bet the same prop at +500, but not at +350 because it's a bad price.

He averages 2 takedowns a round, 3 in the later rounds.

It's an absolute bargain.

The 2+ takedowns in round 5 are directly correlated with him winning the fight by decision also.

If he isn't getting 2 takedowns in round 5 then he probably isn't going to be winning the decision because it would suggest he gassed before Strickland

 

[sonhow]

Why isnt Geoff Neal a lock vs Medic? Basically a worse striker than him with a chin thats possibly been cracked. Because its Geoff Neal I know but hes still beaten way better fighters than Uros and this would probably be his worst loss by a mile.

 

[Egészségére!]

Why isnt Geoff Neal a lock vs Medic? Basically a worse striker than him with a chin thats possibly been cracked. Because its Geoff Neal I know but hes still beaten way better fighters than Uros and this would probably be his worst loss by a mile.

Idk at 35, 1-3 & coming off a ko loss you got to wonder if he’s on the decline

Plus Medic’s on a 3-1 roll all ko’s

I get what you’re saying but Neal at -192 seems about right imo

 

[Thesnake101]

Why isnt Geoff Neal a lock vs Medic? Basically a worse striker than him with a chin thats possibly been cracked. Because its Geoff Neal I know but hes still beaten way better fighters than Uros and this would probably be his worst loss by a mile.

I like Neal here and think he should win but Medic is a pretty fast and aggressive guy despite having gotten chinned himself before. He could definitely spark Geoff if given the chance, which is why the line isn't wider.

 

[sonhow]

Idk at 35, 1-3 & coming off a ko loss you got to wonder if he’s on the decline

Plus Medic’s on a 3-1 roll all ko’s

I get what you’re saying but Neal at -192 seems about right imo

The level of competition couldnt be more different tho. Medic pretty much lost every step up hes ever taken and while we think of Neil as inconsistent he pretty much competed on same level his entire career. Aside from Neil Magny loss maybe.
But for some reason Im hesitating myself to pull the real trigger so in a way Im agreeing with you guys,

 

[mkess101]

The level of competition couldnt be more different tho. Medic pretty much lost every step up hes ever taken and while we think of Neil as inconsistent he pretty much competed on same level his entire career. Aside from Neil Magny loss maybe.
But for some reason Im hesitating myself to pull the real trigger so in a way Im agreeing with you guys,

Because Medic is just a high variable fighter by nature. Against other strikers, he can beat guys that are better than he is and lose to guys who are worse. Maybe Neal decides to grapple some here, but if not it becomes a dice roll on who lands big first.

 

[sonhow]

Because Medic is just a high variable fighter by nature. Against other strikers, he can beat guys that are better than he is and lose to guys who are worse. Maybe Neal decides to grapple some here, but if not it becomes a dice roll on who lands big first.

So far hes been on par with losing to better and beating worse but I get what you are saying.

 

[Oblivian]

Is Leavitt going to be outclassed here? I could see this becoming a fun grappling match.

Leavitt was my biggest hit of the night, but god damn was it not a fun grappling match. Del Valle likely struggles with any strong grappler with top control. Huge disappointment with him.