UFC FN 266: Bautista vs. Oliveira

[PuertoRican]

 

[PuertoRican]

This is actually a really good card when it comes to entertainment value. That being said, I consider myself lucky that I will be in Vietnam during this fight card and won't be able to bet anything. If I had access to bet this event, I could see myself losing a lot of money on these fights due to how close and tricky many of them are.

I think this fight card shits all over the first two events of 2026, which were both numbered events. I also think it's way more difficult to bet than the first two events of the year.

My picks:

• Bautista
• Horiguchi
• Almeida
• Oleksiejczuk
• F. Basharat
• Jacoby/Walker dunno
• Donchenko
• Veretennikov/Price dunno
• Souza
• J. Basharat
• Cong
• Gafurov
• Sygula/Cachoeira dunno

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

1. Oliveira, Almeida, Walker.

2. Farid, Cong, Gafurov.

 

[Tebowned]

I love way too many dogs so something is not right. I'll watch some "tape" while work is slow and see if I still feel the same way

Early Leans:
Mario Bautista vs. V. Oliveira
-Oliveira dec or ko Low confidence

Amir Albazi vs. K. Horiguchi
-Amir Albazi dec Low confidence. I really like Horiguchi so I can't bet on him

J. Almeida vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Rizvan tko. Maybe live bet Rizvan if down early Low confidence

M. Oleksiejczuk vs. M. Barriault
M. Oleksiejczuk ko

Jean Matsumoto vs. Farid Basharat
-Matsumoto just on early odds but may change my mind,

Dustin Jacoby vs. Julius Walker
-Julius Walker decision. I really liked Dustin Jacoby against Crute but this is a weird stylistic matchup.

Alex Morono vs. D. Donchenko
-Donchenko KO

S. Nurmagomedov vs. Javid Basharat
-Javid Basharat DEC


Muin Gafurov vs. Jakub Wikłacz
-Maybe live bet Wikłacz if down early as Gafurov slows /sub Guillotine


WMMA
Bruna Brasil vs. Ketlen Souza
- Ketlen Souza dec
Cong Wang vs. Eduarda Moura
-Cong Wang dec
P. Cachoeira vs. Klaudia Syguła
- Cachoeira dec

 

[Guld]

This is actually a really good card when it comes to entertainment value. That being said, I consider myself lucky that I will be in Vietnam during this fight card and won't be able to bet anything. If I had access to bet this event, I could see myself losing a lot of money on these fights due to how close and tricky many of them are.

Same. I don't have a strong read on any of the fights, and I learned from the last card that I gotta play it real safe with fights like that.
I also agree that it has some potentially entertaining scraps, so I'll probably just limit myself to very small livebets or props.

 

[sonhow]

All over Oli with this line. I think Batista is pretty great but I ve been on Oli train for some time now. Ride or die.

 

[Guld]

All over Oli with this line. I think Batista is pretty great but I ve been on Oli train for some time now. Ride or die.

I might have to do some tape watching, but that might be a really good bet. Bautista comes forward with heavy pressure and is a tough outing for just about anyone. However, he looked very desperate trying to beat Aldo (with control time and zero dmg), and the Patchy Mix we've seen in the UFC is laughably bad.
I might need to rewatch Kyler vs OIiviera, because that might be a good preview of how well Oliviera handles that forward pressure/grappling threat.
It's also a five rounder, so it'll be interesting to see if that affects either guy's pace/strategy.
TLDR: Oliviera might be a great bet lol

 

[Oblivian]

I might have to do some tape watching, but that might be a really good bet. Bautista comes forward with heavy pressure and is a tough outing for just about anyone. However, he looked very desperate trying to beat Aldo (with control time and zero dmg), and the Patchy Mix we've seen in the UFC is laughably bad.
I might need to rewatch Kyler vs OIiviera, because that might be a good preview of how well Oliviera handles that forward pressure/grappling threat.
It's also a five rounder, so it'll be interesting to see if that affects either guy's pace/strategy.
TLDR: Oliviera might be a great bet lol

Going off memory, but that wasn't Phillips strategy at all. It was movement and Oliveira was the one pressuring.

 

[Guld]

Going off memory, but that wasn't Phillips strategy at all. It was movement and Oliveira was the one pressuring.

Gotcha. Yeah, that's maybe not a good comparison, because we know that Bautista will be applying that pressure.

 

[Tebowned]

Gotcha. Yeah, that's maybe not a good comparison, because we know that Bautista will be applying that pressure.

Will he be applying the pressure in this fight though?

He gives me volk/ aldo, carlos condit/ diaz vibes. Pitter patter punches and baby leg kicks any time he's pressured.

Like he'll have the volume but i see him going backwards most of the fight.

 

[jnes]

What do people see in Oliveira that I don't? I think he's shit, he just swings for the fences with no technique. Sure he's tough and has great heart but his skills look like an amateur. Bautista is just a notch below the elite level and holds probably every advantage except power and size. If this goes past 3 Oliveira is a dead man walking Mario's pace will melt him imo. Going from Umar to Oliveira is an insane drop in level of competition.

This is coming from someone who bet on Oliveira vs Said and Philips.

 

[sonhow]

What do people see in Oliveira that I don't? I think he's shit, he just swings for the fences with no technique. Sure he's tough and has great heart but his skills look like an amateur. Bautista is just a notch below the elite level and holds probably every advantage except power and size. If this goes past 3 Oliveira is a dead man walking Mario's pace will melt him imo. Going from Umar to Oliveira is an insane drop in level of competition.

This is coming from someone who bet on Oliveira vs Said and Philips.

There have been tons of people who made it to the top with bad lapses in techinique. Thats not the point with Oliviera. The biggest thing for me that despite not getting the cleanest performance out of his system he tends to win fights very clearly. As someone whose witnessed lots of performances in sports in general where the performer is the type that tends to compete "at their opponents level" I see a dude who can take a step up when needed.

Sure lot of this has to do with seeing potential but Im willining to bet my estimations could be right in this one.
If Bautista wins clearly, maybe even 50-45 that wouldnt be a surprise in the slightest but Im willing to take a risk that it wont happen.

Also to keep in mind while Bautista has beaten solid fighters none of them have been streaking or top of their game despite having 10+ fights in the ufc. Same could be said of Oliviera but aside from Umar I think this is by far the best and most proven opponent for either man to this point. Aldo has 6 minutes of cardio in his system and that was enough to drag Bautista to a razor thin decision.

 

[Oblivian]

What do people see in Oliveira that I don't? I think he's shit, he just swings for the fences with no technique. Sure he's tough and has great heart but his skills look like an amateur. Bautista is just a notch below the elite level and holds probably every advantage except power and size. If this goes past 3 Oliveira is a dead man walking Mario's pace will melt him imo. Going from Umar to Oliveira is an insane drop in level of competition.

This is coming from someone who bet on Oliveira vs Said and Philips.

I'm glad someone said it. To me it seems like this is someone that Bautista should be able to gameplan against pretty easily.

 

[EndlessCritic]

hit the wang cong opener at -210. i feel like a genius.

i'm struggling to understand how wiklacz is a dog here. this is at worst a dead even fight for him. gafurov just isn't very good.

happy with my oliveira play at +160.

dare i say there might actually be value on barriault at this price? he actually had a good performance against shara bullet, and more than arguably won round 2 of that fight. when he's in a slugfest he's at his worst, but when he pressures his opponent against the fence he can actually give a lot of guys problems. oleks is -500 from wins off of dumas and gm3? please.

 

[The Judo Champ]

What do people see in Oliveira that I don't? I think he's shit, he just swings for the fences with no technique. Sure he's tough and has great heart but his skills look like an amateur. Bautista is just a notch below the elite level and holds probably every advantage except power and size. If this goes past 3 Oliveira is a dead man walking Mario's pace will melt him imo. Going from Umar to Oliveira is an insane drop in level of competition.

This is coming from someone who bet on Oliveira vs Said and Philips.

Someone who's "shit" wouldn't have beat Said or Phillips. he's aggressive and has big power. Bautista was knocked out by a can and was getting lit up by the ghost of Aldo. Bautista is unlikely to get a finish so he's gonna have to play matador to a dangerous fighter for 5 rounds to secure a win

 

[The Judo Champ]

I like Jacoby via dec at +225
bruna dec +175
pair those two and it's +800
Cachoeira vis tko will likely but juiced but hasnt dropped yet.

I like Jacoby, Brasil, Priscilla, gafurov, and almeda. Creating parlays with a few of them in different pair combos

 

[Tebowned]

Said out vs Javid. Gianni Vasquez is in.

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[Tebowned]

Oliveira "Most Takedowns Landed" is +175.
Worth a look imo.
Mario is not some takedown machine and has been taken down by almost everyone who tried.
Oliveira has taken down every one of his UFC opponents including Ricky Simon who Bautista couldn't really takedown.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

There have been tons of people who made it to the top with bad lapses in techinique. Thats not the point with Oliviera. The biggest thing for me that despite not getting the cleanest performance out of his system he tends to win fights very clearly.

Its very Dricusesque

 

[Tebowned]

• Javid Basharat (135.5) vs. Gianni Vazquez (141)*
• Wang Cong (127.5)** vs. Eduarda Moura (127)***
• Muin Gafurov (141)*** vs. Jakub Wiklacz (135.5)

4 misses.
2 in the same fight haha.