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UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang

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  • Johnny Walker (+285) vs. Mingyang Zhang (-395)
  • Brian Ortega (+250) vs. Aljamain Sterling (-305)
  • Sergei Pavlovich (-255) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+210)
  • Sumudaerji (-150) vs. Kevin Borjas (+130)
  • Taiyilake Nueraji (-340) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (+280)
  • Maheshate Hayisaer (+110) vs. Gauge Young (-140)
  • Lone’er Kavanagh (-215) vs. Charles Johnson (+180)
  • Rongzhu (-290) vs. Austin Hubbard (+240)
  • Michel Pereira (-290) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+240)
  • Yizha (-1500) vs. Westin Wilson (+775)
  • Long Xiao (+120) vs. Su Young You (-140)
  • Diyar Nurgozhay (+250) vs. Uran Satybaldiev (-300)
 
Do better UFC. Ortega vs. Sterling would’ve been a fire 5 round main event with most likely a lot of high level grappling exchanges. Instead we have a main event that almost assuredly will end in the first round just so they can have a Chinese guy in the main event.
 
Sterling -240
Ortega looks to be destroyed by time and injuries.

Nueraji -300

Kavanagh -200

Considering Pavlovich because I think he'll do more damage.
 
Xiao +125
Taller, longer, Chinese-er. Should have a significant striking edge and size advantage. You has a PTV with grappling, but he doesn't look particularly dangerous on the mat. Xiao should be the favourite, IMO.
 
I swear if Waldo wins a fight where nothing happens again...

Almost like people gas by just looking at him.
 
Wanted to take Yizha ITD but with how the odds are even rd 1 might not be worth it...

Maheshate and Xiao are two dogs I'm considering. Also a long shot punt on Sergei by sub, puts on his wrestling shoes again and Waldo gives up the back it could happen.
 
I don't think the Ortega/Aljo odds should be that wide. Ortega's grappling is so sharp and his ability to hit subs is up there with the best. He has only lost to (elite) guys who were bad for him stylistically. Aljo can only fight one way, and if Ortega can scramble and get up, he will land the better shots imo. The sub is always live as well.

Pavlovich should finally remember how to KO a mf here.

I'm putting $20 on Johnny Walker to KO Zhang and no one can stop me.

Why on earth is Michel Pereira -300 against anyone? Guy has had 4 minutes of cardio for years and does nothing about it. Daukaus needs to survive the first round and he should have a very good chance.

Rongzhu impressed me in his last fight. Should come through here.
 
Expected closer odds for Sterling and Ortega and would have been large on Sterling. Sterling is the better grappler for sure.
 
I don't think the Ortega/Aljo odds should be that wide. Ortega's grappling is so sharp and his ability to hit subs is up there with the best. He has only lost to (elite) guys who were bad for him stylistically. Aljo can only fight one way, and if Ortega can scramble and get up, he will land the better shots imo. The sub is always live as well.

Pavlovich should finally remember how to KO a mf here.

I'm putting $20 on Johnny Walker to KO Zhang and no one can stop me.

Why on earth is Michel Pereira -300 against anyone? Guy has had 4 minutes of cardio for years and does nothing about it. Daukaus needs to survive the first round and he should have a very good chance.

Rongzhu impressed me in his last fight. Should come through here.

Aljo is just the better overall grappler and will be the one getting TD's. Ortega will play guard most likely and have a very tough time getting up. He has slick subs but that's a long shot vs a grappler as good as Sterling. Aljo via decision seems likely.

Agree on Pereira. Anyone paying that kind of juice on him at this point is asking to watch him either gas hard after a round, or be so worried about gassing that he does absolutely nothing like in his last fight.
 
Aljo is just the better overall grappler and will be the one getting TD's. Ortega will play guard most likely and have a very tough time getting up. He has slick subs but that's a long shot vs a grappler as good as Sterling. Aljo via decision seems likely.

Agree on Pereira. Anyone paying that kind of juice on him at this point is asking to watch him either gas hard after a round, or be so worried about gassing that he does absolutely nothing like in his last fight.

Ortega will definitely want it on the feet but any time Aljo tries to initiate the grappling he's gonna get attacked hard with sub attempts which should create space for him to scramble. Also, Aljo's grappling style is so bad for how fights are judged these days. He prioritizes position 95% of the time. If Ortega can keep scrambling up and land some big shots, he will probably get the round.

Aljo should be favorite but I can see Ortega having more success than people think.
 
Ortega will definitely want it on the feet but any time Aljo tries to initiate the grappling he's gonna get attacked hard with sub attempts which should create space for him to scramble. Also, Aljo's grappling style is so bad for how fights are judged these days. He prioritizes position 95% of the time. If Ortega can keep scrambling up and land some big shots, he will probably get the round.

Aljo should be favorite but I can see Ortega having more success than people think.

The judging point is valid, but imo if Ortega is attacking that aggressively with subs, he's getting his back taken. Aljo is one of the best in MMA at it. Ortega is a talented submission threat but he's not a world class grappler overall. You can't sub hunt vs elite grapplers like Aljo the same way you do with most guys.

Line might be a bit too wide, I'll give you that. I'm hoping his decision line is way less expensive although that's probably a pipe dream.
 
Pereira rd 1 KO is probably the only way to play him that's worth anything, and I do think that's the likeliest outcome anywho.

Daukaus last two UFC fights was him taking a shit ton of damage and dying, beating some scrubs in CFFC doesn't change that.
 
My current bets:
  • Kevin Borjas +145
  • Kyle Daukaus +230
  • Parlay: Zhang, Sterling -143
  • Parlay: Pavlovich, Nueraji -127
I like that Sterling+Zhang parlay. I just grabbed that myself.
I'm tempted by Daukaus, but I'll live bet that when/if I see signs of success.
For some reason I'm hesitant to bet on Pav/against Waldo. It feels like a trap 😆
 
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