UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai

[Captain Chesapeake]

Is it just me or is mdlr going to turn lipski into a pretzel on the ground?

I don’t even think she needs to take her down. At this point her hands are significantly better

Really wanted to have more on her at -160.

Don’t like playing these lower level dames above -200.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Just because he attempted a darce choke doesn't mean it's good, he tried to darce Lingo about 5 times and failed.

I'm not sure, the line is wide but hmm I actually think Woodson's TDD looks fine, pretty decent really, it's more an issue with him being held against the cage for periods and then if the takedown does come he tends to give up his back and his ground game is some what weak. He looks okay defensively, doesn't take much damage and can fights hands fine but he can lose a whole round to the position without showing any real attempt to get up, but he's shown a decent sprawl, in the open people tend to grab a single but his balance is good, he'll get ran back to the cage and then usually guys switch off the single and look to get in on the hips where he has a wide base, just an awkward guy to deal with. People seem to have more success if they can spin to his back and try to elevate him from there.

I don't think Zelal gets takedowns at a high clip, he uses the same single leg entry that everyone does against Woodson, which will lead to cage push and Woodson is good at defending there. Plus Scoring wise Zalal is pretty low volume and if he gets the cage push time he's not going to be doing damage there. I think Zalal has to get cage control/top time and do damage because the volume gulf standing will be huge.

Erosa went strike for strike in terms of output with Woodson like both threw 170+ strikes but Erose still got landed on like 30% more.

Woodson decision for me, maybe Zalal flukes a darce, he has 3/4 attempts against Lingo from various positions and that's how Erosa finished him as you say but how high percentage is that, how does he get it there? It's not like Zelal is shooting doubles

Prior to ufc he has two darce chokes on an 0-0 and a 5-3 fighter. Not the most skilled but I do believe woodsen is a white belt level. He had terrible defense against erosa. I too see woodsen getting his back taken from the backwards clinch and getting rnc. He has a habbit of turning his back too. His long legs will make it difficult to grab the takedown. But Zalal has taken everyone down at this point to the ground besides that world class bjj guy from Spain. At one point I do see Zalal getting him down at least once, is that enough that he might just pass woodson's guard and secure the mount or get a sub win? I think so, a purple belt gets a white belt down , it's usually over . But make no mistake I'm not going to over expose myself with Zalal.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

I don’t even think she needs to take her down. At this point her hands are significantly better

Really wanted to have more on her at -160.

Don’t like playing these lower level dames above -200.

Yeah but more than likely because she shoots a ton of tds it's going to be on the ground mostly with lipski dogshit tdd. Have a feeling mdlr melts her but gotta look into the fight more.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Yeah but more than likely because she shoots a ton of tds it's going to be on the ground mostly with lipski dogshit tdd. Have a feeling mdlr melts her but gotta look into the fight more.

De la Rosa seams to have fallen in love with her boxing. She has a clear Ptv, so let’s hope she employs some grappling. I think she’s better everywhere but I’m still hesitant to lay the chalk on her. I have her in some parlays and at -160 although I’d like to have more on her ml but we aren’t going to see those prices again

 

[guesswhoseback]

How often do you win these chalky parlays?

He has posted 3 that ive seen lost all 3 but this 1 may hit you never know I see him losing the Jones and Bosser fight though

 

[guesswhoseback]

For anyone who's taped Zalal/Woodson and is taking Zalal can you tell me what you see? Seems to be a very popular dog this week

Zalal-Dec is what I see but depending on what OV/UN is if the over isnt at -200 or higher ill bet that instead

 

[guesswhoseback]

Odds are in his favor, 67% favorites win. You'd rather bet on one 300+ dog or four favorable fighters with an edge? Believe it or not , spamming huge favorites with high wins consistency is a smart strategy.

imagine all the years of money you could have won on

Jones,Valentina,Nunes,Adesanya ,Usman, on all the mismatched fights they had. Parlaying these champions together and using the winnings to bet in their next bout for the last ten years, you could have made half a million dollars at least.

Not if you were only betting a dollar on the parlays you would have about 18$ now

 

[guesswhoseback]

Can confirm betting gigantic favorites, especially parlayed together is the best strategy in MMA. All those unbeatable champs like Pettis, Joanna, Ronda, Barao, Rockhold etc. that you can easily cash as massive favorites.

Keep up the good work.

LOL GAME SET MATCH GAME OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

 

[guesswhoseback]

They aren't in the same league because they lost, at one point people thought they were just as unbeatable that's why they too were gigantic favs. People thought RDA vs Pettis, Holm vs Rousey, Barao vs Dillashaw were all mismatches too. Jones almost got DQd as well even as a 'lock'.

You seem like an advocate for quantitative analysis, big parlays with juiced favourites, champ bias, recency bias and a whole host of horrendous betting practices lol

LOL

 

[guesswhoseback]

Look, I'm sorry for criticizing your betting strategies. I have no right or reason to do so and it is completely illogical of me. Stick to your guns and I hope you serve as inspiration to other bettors out there, I hope many people adopt your system and ideally it attracts as much action as possible. I truly believe it is for the greater good that this occurs.

Guys like you keep me in business and that is absolutely fine.

Dam Bro you on a rampage today I like it

 

[guesswhoseback]

What ever that means dude.

It means he thinks the way you gamble is idiotic and clowns like you who bet these chalky parlays are the reason why he claims to be a succesfull gambler

 

[Stat_Collector]

It means he thinks the way you gamble is idiotic and clowns like you who bet these chalky parlays are the reason why he claims to be a succesfull gambler

He can think it all he wants , he like you never post any of your winnings like i have. Until you make 4400$ in one night , then you can talk. The whole point is to pick winners, not just odds. A win is a win, rather it brings only a small value or a big one, betting 4 sizable favorites beats a big underdog that leaves reasonable doubt.

but I’m not going to reply anymore to you trolls anymore. Anyone who cant have a discussion without name calling is an emotional child looking for attention. Atleast the posters above can present their arguments with reason and logic.

blocked

 

[Oblivian]

He can think it all he wants , he like you never post any of your winnings like i have. Until you make 4400$ in one night , then you can talk. The whole point is to pick winners, not just odds. A win is a win, rather it brings only a small value or a big one, betting 4 sizable favorites beats a big underdog that leaves reasonable doubt.

but I’m not going to reply anymore to you trolls anymore. Anyone who cant have a discussion without name calling is an emotional child looking for attention. Atleast the posters above can present their arguments with reason and logic.

blocked

I mean it is no secret that a big favorite can have value. There are guys with implied odds of 80% that probably win 90%+ of the time. With that said, betting "winners" with little value makes no sense and you'll lose long term. I've been on these betting threads for 10+ years. I'd say it's been very rare to see the parlay the favorite guys be successful long term. Honestly, I'm not even sure the chase only underdog guys are successful long term. The best strategy will always be to bet both favorites and underdogs as each can have value. It's a pretty basic concept.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I mean it is no secret that a big favorite can have value. There are guys with implied odds of 80% that probably win 90%+ of the time. With that said, betting "winners" with little value makes no sense and you'll lose long term. I've been on these betting threads for 10+ years. I'd say it's been very rare to see the parlay the favorite guys be successful long term. Honestly, I'm not even sure the chase only underdog guys are successful long term. The best strategy will always be to bet both favorites and underdogs as each can have value. It's a pretty basic concept.

And I do that all the time. But I don't mind putting a favorite who has 3x the exp and better opponent wins and far better in every department. I even said Tanner Boser is not a good bet. I predicted Jared and Ramos in the last card. My point is not to avoid every -200 fighter because in a big parlay there is still value there.

 

[ballsackarino]

Moroz's odds are yoyo-ing back and forth. Tough to get a read on the line. I think Fiorot will become a bigger favourite by fight night just because she's jacked and has power. I don't know, do I just play Moroz now at +140 or wait a bit, I think we can get a juicier line.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Moroz's odds are yoyo-ing back and forth. Tough to get a read on the line. I think Fiorot will become a bigger favourite by fight night just because she's jacked and has power. I don't know, do I just play Moroz now at +140 or wait a bit, I think we can get a juicier line.

Why be greedy? It’s crazy that people are paying -160 and up for fiorot

I would probably only play her at +150 and up lol

mdlr up to -265 now, pretty surprising. Never thought I’d see the day when people laid -265 on mdlr. Juice era

 

[Jordan3399]

Moroz's odds are yoyo-ing back and forth. Tough to get a read on the line. I think Fiorot will become a bigger favourite by fight night just because she's jacked and has power. I don't know, do I just play Moroz now at +140 or wait a bit, I think we can get a juicier line.

All I've seen across the board is people hitting Moroz at any kind of +money. +140 is looking good at the moment.

 

[ballsackarino]

Yeah I guess I'll just take the +140. I like Latifi against Boser. Boser's hands aren't great, very basic combos, and relies too much on leg kicks. I don't think he has enough tools to stop Latifi from closing the distance and getting him down. Boser's first level TDD looks good but once he's on his back he's like an old person on life alert, he can't get up. And Latifi is comfortable riding half guard. Lewis just barely squeaked by Latifi but that was because Lewis is good at creating big moments and landing hard even with his low volume.

I also took Zalol at +170, the price came down on him as I predicted but probably my least confident play. I'm 1-3 picking Zalol fights so maybe I'll just cash out, I suck at betting or betting against Zalol.

 

[guesswhoseback]

He can think it all he wants , he like you never post any of your winnings like i have. Until you make 4400$ in one night , then you can talk. The whole point is to pick winners, not just odds. A win is a win, rather it brings only a small value or a big one, betting 4 sizable favorites beats a big underdog that leaves reasonable doubt.

but I’m not going to reply anymore to you trolls anymore. Anyone who cant have a discussion without name calling is an emotional child looking for attention. Atleast the posters above can present their arguments with reason and logic.

blocked

LOL I just had a big long comment back to that but I deleted it because you would of reported me have a nice day. Kind sir you must have a great wonderful life if you get that offended by someone on a message board where you have to end up blocking them you are a very funny guy I have a Dr Seuss book for you to read or a Mr Potato head if you want to get offended by something

 

[guesswhoseback]

LOL I just had a big long comment back to that but I deleted it because you would of reported me have a nice day. Kind sir you must have a great wonderful life if you get that offended by someone on a message board where you have to end up blocking them you are a very funny guy I have a Dr Seuss book for you to read or a Mr Potato head if you want to get offended by something

Hell Ya my favorite poster by far on this message board and the best gambler on this message board by far and yes I keep track I dont include live bets because sometimes people can just lie and dont show there losing live bets. liked my post thank you @Kamais_Ookin my dreams have came true lol