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I thought about playing her too, but man she has a real hole with that takedown D. Even Sarah Moras had her down for ages.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai
- Thread starter BigSteve
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I was liking fabinski when the lines came out... after watching film on both fighters, I like fabinski even more because Muniz is just unimpressive.
Muniz was tired after round 1 in his ufc debut be off a couple grappling exchanges and he was lucky he had an opponent that was practically a mirror of himself in terms of cardio/striking, he barely edged out a fellow contender series goon with his grappling edge.
Ok, the threat of submission is there, but unless Muniz commits with everything R1 where it’s dry (this will also cause him to gas and get smothered) it’s simply not happening. Muniz seems to want the fight on the ground as well, but if he was smart he should try to keep this on the feet where I give him a slight striking edge over Bart(only due to the fact that Bart really goes for that takedown). I don’t think Muniz will be able to keep this on the feet because he likes hunting for submissions and he will most likely accept bottom position and not try to spend a ton of explosive energy defending takedowns. Round 3 could be interesting, but Muniz will have to bank on a sub after most likely being down 2 rounds to the superior wrestler and both dudes will be hella sweaty and I don’t see Muniz ending up on top of Bart because his wrestling is not good. When’s the last time we saw a round 3 sub where a fighter wasn’t completely exhausted or en route to getting finished? Very hard to finesse submissions with sweat and Muniz ain’t club subbing Bart with his striking. If Muniz had the cardio or submission skill, I would stay away or bet Muniz. Muniz ain’t it.
Muniz was tired after round 1 in his ufc debut be off a couple grappling exchanges and he was lucky he had an opponent that was practically a mirror of himself in terms of cardio/striking, he barely edged out a fellow contender series goon with his grappling edge.
Ok, the threat of submission is there, but unless Muniz commits with everything R1 where it’s dry (this will also cause him to gas and get smothered) it’s simply not happening. Muniz seems to want the fight on the ground as well, but if he was smart he should try to keep this on the feet where I give him a slight striking edge over Bart(only due to the fact that Bart really goes for that takedown). I don’t think Muniz will be able to keep this on the feet because he likes hunting for submissions and he will most likely accept bottom position and not try to spend a ton of explosive energy defending takedowns. Round 3 could be interesting, but Muniz will have to bank on a sub after most likely being down 2 rounds to the superior wrestler and both dudes will be hella sweaty and I don’t see Muniz ending up on top of Bart because his wrestling is not good. When’s the last time we saw a round 3 sub where a fighter wasn’t completely exhausted or en route to getting finished? Very hard to finesse submissions with sweat and Muniz ain’t club subbing Bart with his striking. If Muniz had the cardio or submission skill, I would stay away or bet Muniz. Muniz ain’t it.
piglord
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identical read to you. i think muniz needs something crazy like a sub from a standing back take or a guillotine in round one. fabinski has heavy top pressure and works a lot from half guard, i don't see muniz getting much going off his back.
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I don't think Eubanks clinch game is as good as Lansberg's, but more importantly Eubanks gas tank is shit. She dominated Bethe Rd 1 then looked like utter garbage Rd 2 and was exhausted 7 minutes into the fight. Moras is just super slow and unathletic, I don't take much away from that win. Chiasson is basically the opposite of that.
I think Macy maybe believed her hype a bit too much going into the fight with Lina, not sure on that though. But I think she'll have the striking advantage for sure and if Eubanks does take her down, I like Chiasson's chances of getting up relatively quickly.
If Macy was -180 to -200 (where I assumed she'd be) I'd pass. But -130 has value imo.
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Eubanks cardio is pretty bad. That Correia fight was at high elevation in Mexico City though.
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Yeah, but Moras (though not athletic at all) is a way superior technical grappler with top position than Eubanks. Eubanks can probably take Macy down, I just don't think she can hold her there long.
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Fair point. Bethe didn't gas though and she was on her back getting her ass kicked all of Rd 1...
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Not sure where Bethe did her camp for that fight. I know alot of the local fighters trained at altitude for that card. I just remember a few people fading Eubanks before the fight because she probably wouldn't be acclimated.
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ooo i dont know about that one man ... way superior? Eubanks has ranked at 4 world championships in Jits, first place in 2014.
She is stronger more athletic and defs has a wrestling edge over Moras. But we already seen that in their fight.
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Maybe he was confusing her for shayna Dobson.
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Michel Pereira 
Michel Pereira
Entertaining for sure. I wish UFC only fed him cans so he could do his magic.
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there should be a prop bet for fighter X or Y to get corona before the card. something like +6000
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Maybe I should rephrase:
Eubanks opens up more to try gnp, etc and is more prone to allow her opponent to get up. Moras seems to care more about control and not losing top position when she does get it. You're right, saying Moras is a "better" grappler is very inaccurate. It's more a stylistic thing.
Edit: I'm watching Eubanks vs Ladd right now. Yeah, she seems to take chances with her top control and Ladd sweeps her in Rd 1 because of it. It's not grappling skill that's the issue, it's a mindset I think. I'm into Rd 2 now and Eubanks is gassed already and getting her ass handed to her. There's a pattern of her fading BADLY after Rd 1...
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Watch Chiasson vs Lansberg
She was getting outgrappled by a b level grappler. And gassing hard too. I dont feel comfortable betting either fighters. This fight should be a pickem. I predict a very ugly fight, who wins in the end? Just flip a coin.
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Oh yeah I'm not saying Chiasson's grappling is good at all. But her striking is eons better than Eubanks imo and if both gas halfway through the fight I think Chiasson lights her up anyway.
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Off the top of my head, I would say Lamas is the more diverse and better striker but has looked to be slowing down recently and at 38 I can't imagine it getting any better. However, even with this in mind, he also has a grappling and stamina advantage up his sleeve (Algreo got taken down and gassed terribly on his contender fight if I remember correctly) so he should be able to dictate where the fight takes place and at very least secure rounds with TDs if he decides to.
However, even though there is value I won't bother taping until the props lines come out, but only because I very rarely bet heavy favorite ML. In fact, the biggest odds-on favorite bet I made this year was Stewart > Pitolo and that was at 1.60 while drunk on rum.
I am questioning whether this is the best strategy when I see people here constantly win on HF betting but I rarely have the time to tape properly or bet big enough so try to be picky with what I play and so far it's been working well, maybe I'll have a practice run and see how it goes.
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If Chiasson does win it'll be a finish, no?
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Mmm, IDK? I guess I'd lean that way but I do think she can win a decision too (less likely than a finish though, I agree). I can easily envision a fight that has a close rd 1 where Eubanks takes Chiasson down and has some top control, but Chiasson wins the striking. Then both are slowing down midway through rd 2, which favors the better striker because (like in the Bethe fight) Eubanks doesn't have enough in the tank to pursue TD's. And the fight plods to the end with a tired Chiasson clearly winning the striking vs an even more tired Eubanks. But Chiasson without enough juice to put Eubanks away.
I did watch Chiasson/Landberg again and I'm dialing back how much a favorite I think Chiasson should be. (Watched two Eubanks fights too). I still favor Macy by plenty, but probably -170ish seems right. So value at -130 but I'm not as crazy about the line as I was when I capped Chiasson closer to -200.
