UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates

I got Garry at -138. I realize that betting against any of the Fighting Nerds at this point is unwise, but this is a pretty significant bump in competition for Prates and as much as I dislike Garry's fight style, he is effective. I can see a situation similar to the MVP match where Garry gets tagged a bunch and tries to turn it into a grappling match. I'll be cheering for Prates though, and if enough money comes in on Garry as the fav I might nab a Prates hedge if the odds get tempting enough.

I also got Michel at -175.

That's all I got for now. I'm going to do some tape watching for Giga vs Onama and likely stick to my livebet strat for the rest of the card.
 
I have bets on the following:
  • David Onama -180
  • Abus Magomedov +140
  • Malcolm Wellmaker -140
 
Why is Giga an underdog vs Onama. This is a huge step down in competition and a decent step up for Onama.
 
PuertoRican said:
I have bets on the following:
  • David Onama -180
  • Abus Magomedov +140
  • Malcolm Wellmaker -140
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You like Abus over Michel due to how Michel looked last time against Fluffy?
Or do you think it's just a matter of better technical boxing?
 
jnes said:
Why is Giga an underdog vs Onama. This is a huge step down in competition and a decent step up for Onama.
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I imagine because Giga is no longer in his prime IMO, and Onama appears to get better every outing.
You are correct though, this is a big jump up for Onama and Giga could outclass him.
I'm going to have to do some tape watching, but this is basically like a lot of fights we see recently where one guy appears to be on the down swing and the other on the upswing and we are seeing if one has effectively passed the other.
 
Perreiea will beat shit out of Abus imo. I think hes better everywhere. Willing to eat crow for this but Im fairly confident.
 
sonhow said:
Perreiea will beat shit out of Abus imo. I think hes better everywhere. Willing to eat crow for this but Im fairly confident.
Click to expand...
Use the following template and add Michel's name next to each area of MMA you think he's better at when compared to Abus:
  • Boxing:
  • Kicking:
  • Wrestling:
  • BJJ:
  • Punching Power:
  • Cardio:
  • Forward Aggression:
  • Striking Output:
  • Ability to Mix Everything/Most Things:
Also, how many wrestlers and grapplers has Michel fought in the UFC, and what's his record against them once he wasn't able to get a quick finish?
 
PuertoRican said:
Use the following template and add Michel's name next to each area of MMA you think he's better at when compared to Abus:
  • Boxing:
  • Kicking:
  • Wrestling:
  • BJJ:
  • Punching Power:
  • Cardio:
  • Forward Aggression:
  • Striking Output:
  • Ability to Mix Everything/Most Things:
Also, how many wrestlers and grapplers has Michel fought in the UFC, and what's his record against them once he wasn't able to get a quick finish?
Click to expand...
Honestly pretty much everything. Club and sommersault and then sub or gnp tko in two minutes would be my guess. I dont rate Abus that high really. I think hes about Petroskis level with success against similar level of competition.
Maybe I have this all wrong. Glad that you have opposing view and are willing to argue maybe I think about it some more.
 
sonhow said:
Perreiea will beat shit out of Abus imo. I think hes better everywhere. Willing to eat crow for this but Im fairly confident.
Click to expand...

Abus isn't Flufffy, but he's the better wrestler in this matchup and Michel gassed after about a round of grappling vs Fluffy. I expect Michel to have a good round 1 but Abus to push a wrestling pace and by rd 2 Pereira to slow way down. Rd 1 finish always in the cards for Pereira but if not, I like Abus to take over.
 
mkess101 said:
Abus isn't Flufffy, but he's the better wrestler in this matchup and Michel gassed after about a round of grappling vs Fluffy. I expect Michel to have a good round 1 but Abus to push a wrestling pace and by rd 2 Pereira to slow way down. Rd 1 finish always in the cards for Pereira but if not, I like Abus to take over.
Click to expand...
But who doesnt gas after wrestling with Fluffy? Abus had a very back and forth fight with Ferreira who is lesser version of Perreira imo.

Am I crazy Im so high on Perreira? I dont think his stock took a hit at all in his loss to Fluffy just like I dont think Volks stock took too much of hit in his loss to Topuria. What I expected to happen happened. Basically same reasoning for both of these fights. Both of them just took a very (atm) unwinnable fight in general.
 
sonhow said:
But who doesnt gas after wrestling with Fluffy? Abus had a very back and forth fight with Ferreira who is lesser version of Perreira imo.

Am I crazy Im so high on Perreira? I dont think his stock took a hit at all in his loss to Fluffy just like I dont think Volks stock took too much of hit in his loss to Topuria. What I expected to happen happened. Basically same reasoning for both of these fights. Both of them just took a very (atm) unwinnable fight in general.
Click to expand...

IMO it was how soon he gassed vs Fluffy. I think most of us probably assumed that maybe midway through rd 3 if Pereira hadn't have gotten Fluffy out of there he was cooked. What opened my eyes was that after rd 1 he really put up almost no resistance. He survived awhile but that's it. If Abus comes out in wrestling mode, I'm not sure why it can't go the same way-with Pereira tired and playing defense off his back for 10 minutes to end the fight.
 
Abus would gas in 4 minutes vs Hernandez.

He gassed in 4 minutes vs Strickland and there wasn't even any wrestling.

He has cardio like Edmen Shahbazyan
 
mkess101 said:
IMO it was how soon he gassed vs Fluffy. I think most of us probably assumed that maybe midway through rd 3 if Pereira hadn't have gotten Fluffy out of there he was cooked. What opened my eyes was that after rd 1 he really put up almost no resistance. He survived awhile but that's it. If Abus comes out in wrestling mode, I'm not sure why it can't go the same way-with Pereira tired and playing defense off his back for 10 minutes to end the fight.
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That how fast he gassed is a good point. How good is Abus wresting though? I mean sure its okay at least but not like hes been outwrestling comparable people. Based on his ufc fights its a bit hard to tell. Sure Perreira hasnt fought whos who of wrestlers himself but against other people his gastank has held even at his past ww fights. I dont count that Conelly fight its a world of its own and analyzing that is a complete waste of time.
 
Guld said:
I imagine because Giga is no longer in his prime IMO, and Onama appears to get better every outing.
You are correct though, this is a big jump up for Onama and Giga could outclass him.
I'm going to have to do some tape watching, but this is basically like a lot of fights we see recently where one guy appears to be on the down swing and the other on the upswing and we are seeing if one has effectively passed the other.
Click to expand...
Line seems kinda nuts considering how flat Onama looked against a random Combate guy last time out, maybe his wrestling will be enough to pull this one out, but as long as it stays standing he's getting picked apart.
 
DalchaLungiambula said:
Abus would gas in 4 minutes vs Hernandez.

He gassed in 4 minutes vs Strickland and there wasn't even any wrestling.

He has cardio like Edmen Shahbazyan
Click to expand...

I get that Alves and Bruno aren't really grapplers, but Abus pushed a grappling pace in both fights and didn't fade. Went 15 minutes with Alves controlling him the whole time. Subbed Bruno in rd 3. I'd say those being his 2 most recent performances show he can push a grappling pace and go all 3. He's likely gonna be the one initiating grappling, so how he'd do vs Fluffy is kind of irrelevant. Michal showed that if he's forced to defend off his back, he'll gas early.

Now if people think Abus can't wretle well enough to either keep Michal down or repeatedly take him down that's one thing. But if he's able to early, seems likely that Michal will slow way more quickly.
 
sonhow said:
Honestly pretty much everything. Club and sommersault and then sub or gnp tko in two minutes would be my guess. I dont rate Abus that high really. I think hes about Petroskis level with success against similar level of competition.
Maybe I have this all wrong. Glad that you have opposing view and are willing to argue maybe I think about it some more.
Click to expand...
If you honestly think Michel is better than Abus in every area of MMA, then you should max bet Michel after double checking your read on this fight.

Good luck.
 
Best way to play Michel here is rd 1 KO imo, Abus has already gotten slept bad by an old ass Louis Taylor, and he also got hurt by the much shorter and very sloppy Brunno.

Pereira has his glaring flaws, but he's been pretty consistent for a while now, and the one thing that always looked stellar for him at MW is his power. Don't really think Abus can handle that.
 
PuertoRican said:
If you honestly think Michel is better than Abus in every area of MMA, then you should max bet Michel after double checking your read on this fight.

Good luck.
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The fights two weeks away. Lets see where the line moves.
 
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