UFC Fight Night: Lewis v Oleinik

[Naught2Sixty]

Yeah the basic argument is Weidman is live to win pretty much however he wants and Omari has hands and therefore might use them to KO Chris.

Edit* I realize my hyperbole might be overstated and that by "has hands" I mean they exist on the end of Omaris arms not that he's Floyd Mayweather.

 

[benebox]

You're missing one major factor, Weidman hitting his own TDs

So what you're saying is I should be even more confident on Weidman! I bet 2 units on it just because I can't bring myself to bet more than that on Weidman.

 

[ill800]

So what you're saying is I should be even more confident on Weidman! I bet 2 units on it just because I can't bring myself to bet more than that on Weidman.

I wasn’t willing to go more than 2 units either. His motivation and chin are big question marks for me and I wouldn’t feel comfortable going any larger. I also thought +240 dec was a good line

 

[Martialbeef]

Rather than play Stewart or Pitolo, I’ll go no distance at -160. Both hit hard as fuck, can’t see this going to the deck either. Maybe I’m wrong.

Like Dariush Holtzman no distance also @ -110.

if you parlay both of them that’s like +200

 

[Sadistics]

So what you're saying is I should be even more confident on Weidman! I bet 2 units on it just because I can't bring myself to bet more than that on Weidman.

Haha exactly. I'm also at 2u and considering adding

 

[careto]

You kidding me right?? Munoz has extremely good MMA wrestling LOL. I'm seriously considering taking him for the upset, but will a tiny bit more analytics before.

Has only shown good MMA wrestling against less than stellar opposition.

 

[rev0lver]

Rather than play Stewart or Pitolo, I’ll go no distance at -160. Both hit hard as fuck, can’t see this going to the deck either. Maybe I’m wrong.

Sure but Stewart also went the distance with Shahbazyan, and went to decision in his last 4 fights. Pitolo's style makes it more likely there'd be a finish win or lose, but classifying Stewart as a finisher is a little generous.

 

[rev0lver]

Has only shown good MMA wrestling against less than stellar opposition.

It's a fair point but him being the TAM wrestling coach and not showing many flaws so far into his MMA career makes me feel a bit more confident. He prob has a lot more experience in the gym with high level mma wrestlers than other guys coming in.

 

[Martialbeef]

Sure but Stewart also went the distance with Shahbazyan, and went to decision in his last 4 fights. Pitolo's style makes it more likely there'd be a finish win or lose, but classifying Stewart as a finisher is a little generous.

The only reason I’m confident in that bet is the matchup. I’ve been burned by Stewart before, notably his last fight where he got wrestlefucked to death.

 

[beroisimo**]

Right, just wanna warn people on two potential plays:

1) Stay far far away from the Weidman vs Akhmedov fight in terms of picking a lock, or putting a significant amount of money on a parlay with one of these fighters. This fight truly can go either way, so ignore all the fighters who appear to be siding with Weidman in this fight. Weidman of course has a clear path to victory if he can come in with a very solid wrestling game plan that is combined with a conservative yet effective striking output. However, Omari is a real tough customer who likes to move forward, and who has a very similar striking to style to Jacare. He really throws with mean intentions (over hands, hooks and stiff jabs), and even though he hasn't got a KO in some time, I still think the man has mean power, and could really hurt Chris if some of those land.

So whilst Chris's path to victory is clearer than Omari's, I think his fragile chin combined with Akhmedov's toughness and moving forward style can also mean that he gets finished too.

I'm going to play Akhmedov in one of my low investment (and thus low risk) parlays, but definitely not putting anything substantial on a parlay with either one of these guys.

2) I know some people are liking the Alex Munoz underdog play due to him being a great wrestler (Team Alpha Male Coach), but having watched a few of his fights, the guy doesn't shoot nearly as much as he should do, and seems to enjoy striking too much. This isn't advisable as I think Nasrat is a great striker who has a great in and out style, and I can see him getting the decision win or even a stoppage by catching Munoz. Then again, Munoz could surprise by coming in with a wrestling focused game-plan, but I am a strong believer habits being hard to get out of, so I expect Munoz to stand more than he should in this fight.

Just be careful with this dog play lads (I'm not going for it).

 

[beroisimo**]

You kidding me right?? Munoz has extremely good MMA wrestling LOL. I'm seriously considering taking him for the upset, but will a tiny bit more analytics before.

Right, just watched some extra tape on Munoz, and I'm not including him in my dog plays anymore. Guy likes to strike way too much, and doesn't wrestle anywhere near as much as he should.

 

[beroisimo**]

Has only shown good MMA wrestling against less than stellar opposition.

True. I just watched some more tape on him, and I'm now staying away from him as a dog. He enjoys striking too much and doesn't wrestle enough (which is what he should be doing most fights).

 

[careto]

True. I just watched some more tape on him, and I'm now staying away from him as a dog. He enjoys striking too much and doesn't wrestle enough (which is what he should be doing most fights).

Yes, I fear that his inexperience will lead him to stand and strike way more than he should againt a better striker and more experienced fighter.

 

[rev0lver]

2) I know some people are liking the Alex Munoz underdog play due to him being a great wrestler (Team Alpha Male Coach), but having watched a few of his fights, the guy doesn't shoot nearly as much as he should do, and seems to enjoy striking too much.

But could this also have to do with him being a lifelong wrestler who feels confident in that aspect and wanted to work on his striking? I can see Munoz testing the striking early, and then he can just wrestle if he feels he has to.

 

[marcus82]

I think weidman is the best value bet on the card here. He is levels above akhmedov. Size, height and reach advantage. Akhmedov slows down massively halfway through round 2 I think weidman sets a fast pace and works in takedowns he can get the finish late in round 2 or early round 3. Akhmedov hasn’t knocked anyone out since 2013 and yes there’s always a punchers chance here with weidman’s glass chin but all his ko losses have come against killers. A looping counter punch ko is akhmedov’s only route to victory here. Weidman is better everywhere!

What odds would Jacare, Gastelum or Mousasi be here against akhmedov? Weidman’s odds are too big!!!

 

[benebox]

Oleinik at +230 was an absolute steal and still is at +200 in my opinion. Unless Lewis is able to KO Olenik relatively quickly I find it hard to see a scenario where Oleinik doesn't take him down at some point within the 1st round and a half. Lewis got taken down under dominant position multiple times in his last couple of fights and even though Lewis has decent submission defense, Olenik will take full advantage if he finds himself on top. I think this will go similar to the Hunt fight, with Lewis looking good and landing some good shots before being taken down and submitted.

A little scared betting on a 43-year-old but I think it's merited.

 

[crodor3]

Oleinik at +230 was an absolute steal and still is at +200 in my opinion. Unless Lewis is able to KO Olenik relatively quickly I find it hard to see a scenario where Oleinik doesn't take him down at some point within the 1st round and a half. Lewis got taken down under dominant position multiple times in his last couple of fights and even though Lewis has decent submission defense, Olenik will take full advantage if he finds himself on top. I think this will go similar to the Hunt fight, with Lewis looking good and landing some good shots before being taken down and submitted.

A little scared betting on a 43-year-old but I think it's merited.[/QUOte

I like the sub line also..i have a hard time seeing how Lewis wins this aside from ko..alexie can win a decision and can also sub him once he gets it on the ground..

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Oleinik at +230 was an absolute steal and still is at +200 in my opinion. Unless Lewis is able to KO Olenik relatively quickly I find it hard to see a scenario where Oleinik doesn't take him down at some point within the 1st round and a half. Lewis got taken down under dominant position multiple times in his last couple of fights and even though Lewis has decent submission defense, Olenik will take full advantage if he finds himself on top. I think this will go similar to the Hunt fight, with Lewis looking good and landing some good shots before being taken down and submitted.

A little scared betting on a 43-year-old but I think it's merited.

He could KO Alexi late too

 

[rev0lver]

I have a hard time seeing an outcome here that's not Lewis KO or Oleinik sub. Worth just finding a hedge there?

 

[beroisimo**]

Oleinik at +230 was an absolute steal and still is at +200 in my opinion. Unless Lewis is able to KO Olenik relatively quickly I find it hard to see a scenario where Oleinik doesn't take him down at some point within the 1st round and a half. Lewis got taken down under dominant position multiple times in his last couple of fights and even though Lewis has decent submission defense, Olenik will take full advantage if he finds himself on top. I think this will go similar to the Hunt fight, with Lewis looking good and landing some good shots before being taken down and submitted.

A little scared betting on a 43-year-old but I think it's merited.

LOL, you are going to lose if you pick Alexei. Alexei's only chance to win is by getting it to the mat, and he hasn't proven that he has explosive or technical takedown abilities. He's a wizard on the mat, but his horrible upright takedown attempts plays right into Lewis's overhand, uppercut or knees.

Alexei is getting wrecked in this fight.