UFC Fight Night: Lewis v Oleinik

[careto]

postponed to 29 august unfortunately

Oh that sucks, I thought Afroninja had this in his pocket.

 

[theTKDguy]

Good value on munoz, nasrat is a very fluid boxer with good tdd but munoz is a strong, gritty wrestler with power and solid stand up too. Odds are off big time.

 

[theTKDguy]

Chris looking skinny. He's been training hard but he doesn't really sound too confident (easy to understand why). Still expect him to win.

 

[2020Tracked]

It seems to me that Beneil is levels above Holtzman pretty much every where, but especially in the grappling.

Holtzman's best weapons are his toughness, cardio and pace. He doesen't do many things, but what he does do he does well.. Ish..

Beneil is very slick on the mat and once he gets you there you're a fly caught in his web, if Beneil can get it to the mat I can see him taking the whole round from there.

The concerns with Beneil are that he does slow and he has been looking more and more fragile and shaky on the feet.

If he can't get his grappling going I think Holtzman can turn up the pressure, beat him up and break him down.. But I don't see any value in Holtzman though, because I suspect this could end up looking like a miss match as long as Beneil's chin can survive one or two scary moments.

Nick Lentz, while often under rated, isn't a top level fighter, he was able to have a lot of success against Holtzman with his grappling and wrestling bringing him to the mat repeatedly, threatening with subs and controlling him against the cage.

Again, I think Beni is levels above Lentz too in this department.

I don't think I like the look of the money line, but Beneil by sub may have some value, but a close decision could also be on the cards

 

[loller90278]

beneil over holtzman by being more educated in his striking -- he'll have to watch out for that right hand but he should lessen the risk with left kicks to the body

Munoz over Nasrat by being the better wrestler and controlling him

Barret over Zalal by being the better wrestler and controlling him

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

beneil over holtzman by being more educated in his striking -- he'll have to watch out for that right hand but he should lessen the risk with left kicks to the body

Munoz over Nasrat by being the better wrestler and controlling him

Barret over Zalal by being the better wrestler and controlling him

I will say that I do favor Barrett’s wrestling and experience here but he has a problem with submissions. Hopefully he’s been working on that.

 

[Broe.]

beneil over holtzman by being more educated in his striking -- he'll have to watch out for that right hand but he should lessen the risk with left kicks to the body

Munoz over Nasrat by being the better wrestler and controlling him

Barret over Zalal by being the better wrestler and controlling him

lol thats a bit optimistic, barrett is awful on the feet, zalal should be able to pick him apart at range. Naqparast is in my opinion a very high level fighter, I doubt Munoz is ready for him. I am taking a little stab on Barrett though, I like how relentless he is and how he can overcome adversity, he could make this fight into a real brawl.

 

[Broe.]

if you look at how easily lewis was held against the fence by both tybura and latifi and how they both got multiple takedowns against him, I think it is reasonable to expect Oleynik to end up in topposition against Lewis, in this scenario I wonder how well he can fight off submissions. Cormier submitted him instantly.... I think Oleinik is definitely the right side to bet on at +200.

 

[theTKDguy]

I really liked laureano at first sight (he's always busy and wins rds) but idk what to expect from means. Staropoli won't have a reach advantage here either mmm

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Well, I think the best way to play the main event is Lewis by ko or possibly Lewis rd 1, and also Olenik by sub, have to wait wait for props though

Lewis R1 would be an interesting call since most of his KOs come late in the fight

 

[benebox]

Sorry UK based Oleinik backers. I just lowered the best available odds from +230 to +210

 

[Tirimasuperman]

I can see Pete Barrett as a dog play, but I don't think there's a ton of value on him outside his current odds

The guy does not have good stand up, eats a lot of shots, and continues to find himself in constant submission attempts when he is on the ground. The only things in his favour are the fact that he's clearly a tough fucker and incredibly resilient, he has a base in wrestling (albeit high school level, not college level, HUGE difference there), and Zalal took the fight on a week's notice while also very clearly looking straight past Barrett and onto his next opponents (I don't put too much stock into this, but have noticed fighters who look past their opponents tend to lose)

On the wrestling angle, the reason this is a significant positive is that Zalal's wrestling isn't great. Before he got to the UFC he fought a guy called Jose Mariscal, who pretty comfortably controlled him on the ground for almost the entire fight. Although Zalal managed to pull that fight back in the third, it's mostly because his opponent gassed while he stayed fresh, and I'm not sure we see that on a week's notice. At the same time, Slippery Pete said that he's only been told to use his wrestling by Mark Delagrotti twice in his MMA career, one of which was after the first round of his Contender Series fight, where he fought a Korean dude who absolutely owned him on the feet but had clearly never fought a wrestler before. You'd hope they'd learn from their mistakes, but the fact that the plan was initially to strike with a guy who had no wrestling base and strong striking is worrying. On the plus side, although Zalal was a late notice replacement, the guy he was replacing (Steve Garcia) doesn't appear to have any wrestling background himself, so it's possible the gameplan they trained for Garcia didn't require major adjustments for Zalal

At current lines I'm probably playing Pete, but I'm definitely not expecting a win or anything

 

[Tirimasuperman]

Aite so cardio probably won't be an issue for Zalal, he's continued to train as though he had a fight coming up because he figured he'd get to be a short notice replacement for someone

I'm starting to think Barrett may be priced about right

 

[orgazmo]

Lewis R1 would be an interesting call since most of his KOs come late in the fight

This is true, but when Olenik loses, he often gets blown out early in the fight, out of his 7 tko losses, 6 of them are in the first round. I think it might be because he charges forward too much and gets clipped. I feel like he has to force the grappling exchanges to be successful in this fight as well. I was also thinking of playing just that the fight ends in round 1, because I could see either guy getting the first round finish. It may be a case of the first time Olenik manages to get Lewis to the ground, it'll be over.

 

[Gugabe]

IMO ITD/Under 2.5 and Holtz are the sides in the Dariush fight. Don't think Dariush can take a semi-stiff shot any more.

It seems to me that Beneil is levels above Holtzman pretty much every where, but especially in the grappling.

Holtzman's best weapons are his toughness, cardio and pace. He doesen't do many things, but what he does do he does well.. Ish..

Beneil is very slick on the mat and once he gets you there you're a fly caught in his web, if Beneil can get it to the mat I can see him taking the whole round from there.

The concerns with Beneil are that he does slow and he has been looking more and more fragile and shaky on the feet.

If he can't get his grappling going I think Holtzman can turn up the pressure, beat him up and break him down.. But I don't see any value in Holtzman though, because I suspect this could end up looking like a miss match as long as Beneil's chin can survive one or two scary moments.

Nick Lentz, while often under rated, isn't a top level fighter, he was able to have a lot of success against Holtzman with his grappling and wrestling bringing him to the mat repeatedly, threatening with subs and controlling him against the cage.

Again, I think Beni is levels above Lentz too in this department.

I don't think I like the look of the money line, but Beneil by sub may have some value, but a close decision could also be on the cards

I love Dariush, but I think his chin's fucked enough that he's very hard to play as a favorite against a reasonable wrestleboxer. ITD here should be way tighter IMO. Holtzmann hits very hard and has a high tempo if Dariush wins the early going, and Dariush sub is always going to be live.

 

[mmaday4day]

He's also the Team Alpha Male wrestling coach. Marvin Held has amazing BJJ don't get me wrong, but Nasrat hasn't actually faced an American college (folkstyle) wrestler yet

Idk line just feels kind of off at 3.25 considering Munoz's wrestling credentials

"Marvin"

 

[Tirimasuperman]

"Marvin"

He trains with Connor and Garth

 

[ill800]

Weidman has a lot of advantages over Omari. If not for him possibly being shot he’d be a big favorite here

speaking of being shot, I like Staropoli to potentially finish means.

maki pitolos lack of defense isn’t going to fair well against a big hitter like Stewart

 

[lefontes]

I love Yana Kunitskaya, shes better than Julia Stoliarenko in all mma areas imo. Plus, shes training with Thiago Santos in Brazil and done camp on ATT. I put 1.5u on her @1.50 or -200

 

[theTKDguy]

I love Yana Kunitskaya, shes better than Julia Stoliarenko in all mma areas imo. Plus, shes training with Thiago Santos in Brazil and done camp on ATT. I put 1.5u on her @1.50 or -200

She just gave birth a month ago tho iirc