UFC Fight Night: Lewis v Oleinik

Gugabe said:
How much you comfortable going H2H for? I'll take Holtzmann +400 for whatever you can give me.
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hahaha, if I knew you irl I would def give you a hundo on it. Currently his tko like is at +350 sooo ya.
 
A lot of these guys post pandemic have been getting their Jiu Jitsu exposed.

telling y’all. Beneil by sub if you’re looking for plus money and beneil ML if you wanna play it safe. I really can’t imagine that Scott is facing anyone near the level of beneil in practice. Beneil is one of the few people behind Khabib in LW and beyond where all he needs is one takedown a round. Holtzman is susceptible to clinch as he’s not good at shrugging guys off when they want to grab on to him. His get ups are pretty decent, but at 36 going against the best top game he’s faced in his life I can’t envision Scott doing his purely explosive get ups against a guy like beneil. Nik Lentz and Jim Miller, they’re C+ to B- on their best day while Beneil is an A.

And to people who really think Holtzman is gonna ko Dariush when he couldn’t hurt a much more withered Jim Miller and rudimentary Nik Lentz. Beneil wants him to go for the KO so he can get an easier takedown, this is the guy that took out drew dober and frank Camacho with ease (guys much more dangerous on the feet then a 36 year old Holtzman with absolutely 0 legit KO’s).

I can’t fookin wait, I got my organs on Beneil.
 
Vitor Apologist said:
A lot of these guys post pandemic have been getting their Jiu Jitsu exposed.

telling y’all. Beneil by sub if you’re looking for plus money and beneil ML if you wanna play it safe. I really can’t imagine that Scott is facing anyone near the level of beneil in practice. Beneil is one of the few people behind Khabib in LW and beyond where all he needs is one takedown a round. Holtzman is susceptible to clinch as he’s not good at shrugging guys off when they want to grab on to him. His get ups are pretty decent, but at 36 going against the best top game he’s faced in his life I can’t envision Scott doing his purely explosive get ups against a guy like beneil. Nik Lentz and Jim Miller, they’re C+ to B- on their best day while Beneil is an A.

And to people who really think Holtzman is gonna ko Dariush when he couldn’t hurt a much more withered Jim Miller and rudimentary Nik Lentz. Beneil wants him to go for the KO so he can get an easier takedown, this is the guy that took out drew dober and frank Camacho with ease (guys much more dangerous on the feet then a 36 year old Holtzman with absolutely 0 legit KO’s).

I can’t fookin wait, I got my organs on Beneil.
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I would put money on the fact this guy bet on Holtzman
 
Wondering if I should hedge 5u Dariush ML play by some Holtzman KO at +350...
 
Anyone know what happened to JimGunn? I haven't been on this board but a few times the last couple months. Does JimGunn still post here?
 
@Sadistics do you mind sharing your thoughts on Rivera?

Bum fight between him and Al-Qaisi but his TDD defense sucks from what I've seen. Better striker but Al-Qaisi has a more reliable path to victory via spamming takedowns. Shouldn't that scream dog or pass? Curious what you're seeing on Rivera that I'm missing.

Man, Means should beat Staropoli but he has some red flags...Starpoli isn't exactly a KO threat imo but can we trust Means chin at this point? If so, his DEC line should have some value...
 
InTheCut said:
@Sadistics do you mind sharing your thoughts on Rivera?

Bum fight between him and Al-Qaisi but his TDD defense sucks from what I've seen. Better striker but Al-Qaisi has a more reliable path to victory via spamming takedowns. Shouldn't that scream dog or pass? Curious what you're seeing on Rivera that I'm missing.

Man, Means should beat Staropoli but he has some red flags...Starpoli isn't exactly a KO threat imo but can we trust Means chin at this point? If so, his DEC line should have some value...
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Another way Al Qaisi could win if he can tap out Rivera and they are fighting in a small cage, Rivera doesn't do alot of Kos though.
 
GoldenWolf87 said:
Another way Al Qaisi could win if he can tap out Rivera and they are fighting in a small cage, Rivera doesn't do alot of Kos though.
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Yep I agree, possible sub threat too albeit it was vs bum competition. Feel like small cage favors Al Qaisi more, can Rivera really outstrike him and stay on his feet for a majority of those 15 minutes?Just not sure if i'm missing something with Rivera that @Sadistics or anyone else sees.
 
Al Qaisi
Zalal
Gavin Tucker (thanks for the even money)
Andrew Sanchez
Munoz (looks to be size difference)
Holland
Staropoli
Dariush (biggest bet)
Kunitskaya
Stewart
Weidman
Lewis

Zalal by sub, holland by sub, lewis by KO

Favorite bets: Dariush -180, gavin tucker -115, Andrew sanchez +120, Lewis -195 ,
... in on Stewart, Weidman, staropoli, kunitskaya with less confidence.
Debating large bet on Stewart just because pitolo is trash. Debating a bet on Munoz +210 over nasrat. Size difference looked decent.
 
WolfgangKennelz said:
Al Qaisi
Zalal
Gavin Tucker (thanks for the even money)
Andrew Sanchez
Munoz (looks to be size difference)
Holland
Staropoli
Dariush (biggest bet)
Kunitskaya
Stewart
Weidman
Lewis

Zalal by sub, holland by sub, lewis by KO

Favorite bets: Dariush -180, gavin tucker -115, Andrew sanchez +120, Lewis -195 ,
... in on Stewart, Weidman, staropoli, kunitskaya with less confidence.
Debating large bet on Stewart just because pitolo is trash. Debating a bet on Munoz +210 over nasrat. Size difference looked decent.
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Give me oleinik by submission i dont see a First round ko happening.I remember so many were so high on the hype train with Shahbazyan. Yeah i am not going through that again. Knowning how slow Lewis starts at first round i wouldn't be surprised if oleinik's catches him in the ground in that first round.
Lewis yesterday was giving excuses in a interview why he wasn't KOing other fighters in the past weeks where he was winning decisions.
Of course Lewis could land a Ko on Oleinik but i dont see that happening in the first round.

dont go over to heavy on the favorites because if you do you will lose the bets if doing parleys. You either hedge them or mix them but dont go to over heavy on them.

Stewart just because pitolo is trash
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And should Pitolo win would you be calling him trash then to?
 
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Omni1 said:
Anyone know what happened to JimGunn? I haven't been on this board but a few times the last couple months. Does JimGunn still post here?
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Haven't seen him lately actually, he used to do a lot of boxing bets as well. A shame because he was a very good poster.
 
InTheCut said:
@Sadistics do you mind sharing your thoughts on Rivera?

Bum fight between him and Al-Qaisi but his TDD defense sucks from what I've seen. Better striker but Al-Qaisi has a more reliable path to victory via spamming takedowns. Shouldn't that scream dog or pass? Curious what you're seeing on Rivera that I'm missing.

Man, Means should beat Staropoli but he has some red flags...Starpoli isn't exactly a KO threat imo but can we trust Means chin at this point? If so, his DEC line should have some value...
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I think Ali may hit a couple TDs, but he does nothing on top with poor control. Will often put himself on bottom with his beloved guillotine. Rivera is very scrambly and the farrr better striker. Guys like Sabatello are way better grapplers than Ali.

Ali is a complete bum imo.
 
InTheCut said:
Yep I agree, possible sub threat too albeit it was vs bum competition. Feel like small cage favors Al Qaisi more, can Rivera really outstrike him and stay on his feet for a majority of those 15 minutes?Just not sure if i'm missing something with Rivera that @Sadistics or anyone else sees.
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Rivera has great sub defence and scrambles. He has fought much better wrestlers on the American regional scene. Meanwhile Qaisi dosent even control the body when he goes down for the guiltone a lot of his regional oponents just pass to side control and end up on top.

That being said I hope i dont sweat the first play of the day, I have been getting burnned by wrestling heavy gameplans latley lol.
 
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GoldenWolf87 said:
Give me oleinik by submission i dont see a First round ko happening.I remember so many were so high on the hype train with Shahbazyan. Yeah i am not going through that again. Knowning how slow Lewis starts at first round i wouldn't be surprised if oleinik's catches him in the ground in that first round.
Lewis yesterday was giving excuses in a interview why he wasn't KOing other fighters in the past weeks where he was winning decisions.
Of course Lewis could land a Ko on Oleinik but i dont see that happening in the first round.

dont go over to heavy on the favorites because if you do you will lose the bets if doing parleys. You either hedge them or mix them but dont go to over heavy on them.


And should Pitolo win would you be calling him trash then to?
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If oleinik don't get first round sub, I actually think he fatigues faster than lewis
As for pitolo, I'd be surprised. He was trash against a non ufc caliber fighter in Potter and the last fight against Charles byrd was very very very weird and they both looked pretty bad. Even the KO was weird. I mean pitolo 2nd fight at middleweight and Stewart looked noticeably bigger than him. Dont expect a coconut bomb to KO stewart so ill go with the bigger man who has proven he can actually win fights
 
Jaynes line has come down so much I really love gavin tucker here at an even line.
Dont see any real path to victory for holtzmann
I think the black beast fight will leave everyone saying "damn, that was an easy bet. Why didn't I just bet black beast" dont overthink it... just like evloev over grundy and luque over randy brown. Dont overthink it. Black beast at -190 is a gift. Hes not Maurice greene. He KOs oleinik 4 out of 5 fights
 
WolfgangKennelz said:
If oleinik don't get first round sub, I actually think he fatigues faster than lewis
As for pitolo, I'd be surprised. He was trash against a non ufc caliber fighter in Potter and the last fight against Charles byrd was very very very weird and they both looked pretty bad. Even the KO was weird. I mean pitolo 2nd fight at middleweight and Stewart looked noticeably bigger than him. Dont expect a coconut bomb to KO stewart so ill go with the bigger man who has proven he can actually win fights
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Unlike lewis.Oleinik can try and sub lewis in two rounds i dont think Lewis can anymore. Even if he does it might be in the third or late second round. Not to mention that cringey video that Black beast yeah that was so not cool.
 
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